For most of the week, I thought about using KYCH to talk about the whole Marvin Harrison situation, since it has dominated the water cooler talk in Colt circles this week.  But after some consideration, I decided not to go with it since like most of you, I"m still not really sure what even happened.  All I know is something went down in a rough area of Philadelphia involving a gun, Marvin Harrison, a ninja, and a Belgian...or something to that effect.  If I didn't know any better I'd say that's the start of a really weird joke, with a dumb punchline.

Anyways, while I was looking for some different stuff on the Marvin situation, I was checking on Facebook to see if any "Free Marvin!" groups had popped up yet.  Thankfully, none have been made yet, which is good considering that he hasn't even been charged with anything.

While I was on the Facebook, I stumbled across this story that has nothing to do with Marvin Harrison, but is amazing nevertheless.  Now, I need to throw out the major disclaimer I found this on Facebook so there's absolutely no way to confirm whether or not this story is true, but it is funny, which gives me all the reason I need to post it.  For those of  you that are keeping score at home, that means JakeTheSnake values humor over things like credible sources, the truth, and validity.  With all that out of the way, it's on to the story, which may or may not have actually happened:

The Colts train on Rose-Hulman's campus during the summer. Over the past summer, I was on campus doing research. One weekend I came back from the party and was invited out onto the balcony of the residence hall by a group of aquaintances. They told me they were just "enjoying the view" and motioned toward our lake. I looked out on the lake to find two Colts golf carts (which they use for transportation around campus) on the dock in the middle of the lake. This particular prank had been pulled in years past by some students, who were almost expelled for it. So I gasped and asked who had done it, and my friends simply replied "Peyton Manning". So I laughed at their joke and continued conversation... As it progressed, I realized they were serious, and Peyton Manning really did do it. He and another Colts player decided to prank their coaches and had stoled the coaches' golf carts and floated them to the middle of our lake. It was this day, that Peyton Manning became my personal sports hero...

Again, I can't reiterate enough that Facebook is less reliable than Jeff George's decision making abilities so there's no way to know if this is or true or not, but we do know that Peyton has a history with pranks, so it's not like doing something like that would be entirely out of character for him.  Let's just hope Peyton doesn't pull a prank on the Colts' golf aficionado.  That could lead to some harder than normal sacks during training camp.

AOL Fanhouse's Michael David Smith is confused as to way the Colts signed Dominic Rhodes, suggesting Kenton Keith is better because he rushed for 4.4 yards a carry in 2007 while Rhodes rushed for 3.4 in 2006. Maybe Smith missed the 2006 playoffs, where Rhodes rushed for 306 yards on 62 carries (4.9 a carry) in three BIG games, including a 113 yard, 1 TD performance in the Super Bowl. What did Kenton Keith do in the 2007 playoffs? Turn the football over.



18 to 88 places their collective feet on the throat of Mike Florio for his ridiculous article for The Sporting News regarding the shooting outside Marvin Harrison's bar:

Again, I'm not saying [Harrison] didn't do it. I'm not saying he was justified if he did do it. I am saying that the media coverage of this has been very odd and utterly irrational. This particular article is a great case in point. It sees only two possible scenarios when it's clear there are at least three.

Speaking of Marvin, Pete Prisco has an article up talking about how private Marvin is:

Again, what people don't know is Harrison is a product of the tough streets of North Philly. He still has a lot of that in him. Beating the daylights out of somebody shouldn't be a shock. Some say Harrison still has too much street in him, that he is too loyal to the older neighborhood.

These people that think Harrison is "too loyal" to his old neighborhood are morons like ESPN's Sal Paolantonio.

 

Indy Star has an article from Mike Chappell talking about the Colts signing Dom:

"I can't even share with you the excitement I'm feeling right now,'' Rhodes said in a telephone interview from Arizona.

From the moment he was released by the Oakland Raiders last month, he said, "I knew there was a possibility to come back (to Indy).''

It's nice having Dom back.

Remember back 2 months ago when I asked for some help with a class project?  After following the exact same path as before, I procrastinated my way into a couple of late nights this week to complete my project.  This is definitely a first cut at this, with many improvements to be made before the season starts.  I'll give you a few highlights of my findings, with a full report this weekend, after I've actually written my report for class.

• I used 2003-2006 stats as the basis of my model.  I then predicted 2007 based on probabilities found in the previous 4 years.
• I used an average of the previous 7 weeks data to estimate what each team would do the next week.  Anything beyond 7 weeks was not significant.
• I used Home/Away, Time of Year, Day of Week, and Opponent Group (Division, Conference, Non-Conference) as my Non-Mathematical stats.   I may try to incorporate weather as well, but did not have time, and only found a site with the information a few days ago.

Here's what I found out from 2007:

• The Predictor was right 56% of the time, which is great for an initial stab at this.  Anything over 50% was going to be a victory for me.  I'll have all summer to tweak and make it better.
• It got even better once we exclusively used stats from 2007 (week 7 on).  It was correct 62% of the time at the end of the year.
• I tested out 4 teams individually:
  • Colts:  7-9  (Lots of room for improvement)
    
  • Redskins: 11-5 (Only predicted against them 4 times)
  • Giants: 10-6 (Started 1-5, finished 9-1)
  • Patriots: 12-4 (Picked the Colts to beat them, as they should have)
• The four factors that caused the probability of winning to move the most:
  • Rushing Attempts
  • Rushing Yards
  • Turnovers
  • Time of Possession

Again, I haven't written up the full report yet, which is the project for tomorrow night.  If anyone is interesting in reading it, just shoot me an email.  As I keep updating it throughout the summer, I'll keep you posted on how it is improving.  My goal is 70% before the season starts.

via www.baltimoresun.com

Rexx over at Baltimore Beatdown has a good post up honoring Mr. John Unitas. Today would have been his 75th birthday. Mr. Unitas passed away in 2002. Book publisher Grove/Atlantic, Inc. recently sent me a copy of Mark Bowden's new book The Best Game Ever, which tells the story of the 1958 NFL Championship game at Yankee Stadium between the super star NY Giants and the working class Baltimore Colts. It' really shows how Unitas and Raymond Berry invented the modern NFL. It is also eerie (and I do not say this lightly) how similar Unitas and Berry were then to Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison today.

Speaking of Mr. Raymond Berry, here he is at the Colts last regular season home game in the RCA Dome:

Jamie Silva was a serious playmaker in college. Photo: Scouts.com

I'm taking a break from bashing Mike Florio to actually talk about something important: Free agent rookies!

Now, I know some of you out there are scoffing, making fun of the fact that I care about who the Colts sign as rookie free agents. The truth is rookie free agents as important, if not more important, than the draft. Don't believe me? Ok then, who had a bigger impact on the Colts in 2007: Anthony Gonzalez, or Ed Johnson? You can make a strong argument for both, but I personally think Johnson edges out Gonzo because without big Ed the Colts defense reverts back to the regular season defense we all were tortured with in 2006. Remember when we all stated that the Colts could not afford to lose Booger McFarland, and then two days into training camp they did... for the season! McFarland was quickly replaced by an undrafted, free agent rookie named Ed Johnson. Johnson started every single game at DT for the 2007, and the Colts defense became the #2 defense in football.

So, when I say undrafted free agents are important, I damn well mean it! Oh, and nobody finds diamond-in-the-rough rookies via free agency like Bill Polian. No one.

Today, we'll focus a bit on two gents the Colts signed as rookie free agents: DE Curtis Johnson out of Clark Atlanta and SS Jamie Silva out of BC.

Both Curtis Johnson and Jamie Silva were Scouting Combine invites, and both have very strong scouting reports available at NFL.com. Both fit the bill for a Cover 2-style defense. Both are high character individuals with speed, explosiveness, and a knack for getting the football.

Starting with Silva, NFL.com compares him to Arizona's Corey Chavous:

Few safeties in the professional ranks have the instinctive feel for the ball and knowledge of the action in front of him that Chavous displays. Silva plays with the same field vision, ball anticipation and determination. He is a physical tackler who excels in run support and does a nice job of impeding the ballcarrier's forward progress with his hard-hitting wrap-up tackling skills. He has small, yet natural hands to make the interception and is very good at gaining placement in attempts to reroute the receiver. What he lacks in hip fluidness and explosive second gear, he makes up for with solid tackling skills, taking proper angles and great anticipation skills. Toss in his total disregard for his own well-being, determination to make the play and an added bonus with his kamikaze-style of play on special teams and you have player who is certain to be a fan favorite.

The Colts have some excellent depth at safety with Bob, Antoine, Giordano, and Melvin Bullitt. However, if a player like Bullitt is to retain his job in Indy, he needs to prove that he can become an excellent special teams player. With Silva, he seems to have the speed and ballhawking ability needed to play safety in Dungy's Cover 2, but it is not another safety Indy needs.

Indy needs a special teams ace, and if Silva can play the kind of special teams that the Scouting Combine people think he can play, he could beat out Bullitt. Small side note, Silva could have played college ball at IU, but rejected their offer.

Curtis Johnson Photo: Patsy Collier

With Curtis Johnson, the Colts have another speed rusher off the edge similar to 5th round pick Marcus Howard. Scouts compare Johnson to Joey Porter, who played DE in college, but was transitioned to LBer in the Pittsburgh 3-4 package.

Johnson is not as instinctive as Porter in locating the ball and will need to totally revamp his pass drop and coverage skills, but he has a violent hand punch to overpower big blockers and a good burst off the edge to be a superb edge rusher. His strong hands have seen him have good success dislodging ballcarriers from the ball. With his ability to wreak havoc in the backfield, he will bring instant value in pass-rushing situations. He is also a very capable coverage defender on special teams. The big thing here will be getting Johnson a patient coach. Doing so could unearth a Pro Bowler before long. He was tried at both inside and outside linebacker in postseason all-star action and held up very well on the edge. The mental aspect of playing inside will be too much for him to grasp at this early stage of his possible shift to a stand-up defender from one with his hand on the ground. Look for Johnson to become the first noteworthy CAU product since former NFL fullback Chuck Evans (1993-2000), who was drafted in the 11th round in 1992.

Like with Silva, Johnson could find his niche on the team as a special teams gunner. However, I'm of the mindset that the more pass rushers Indy has, the better. Losing Freeney, Mathis, and Brock killed Indy's chances of repeating last year. I do not want that to happen again, especially with excellent secondary Indy has. Johnson's one problem is his lack of bulk. He's taller than Robert Mathis and Marcus Howard, but weighs less. He will need to add some muscle in order to stay healthy in the NFL. Johnson was considered on of the "best kept secrets" in college football after he impressed many during his last year in college.

If Curtis Johnson displays the same knack at getting to the QB as he did in college, adding him (along with Howard and potentially Rosevelt Colvin) would make Indy's pass rush even more deadly.

Well for any of you that get HBO they run an excellent series called "Hard Knocks" that chronicles teams in training camp. Last year they did the Kansas City Chiefs and BBS and I always get a laugh watching other organizations mismanage player/personal issues.

This year, however, we struck gold because "Hard Knocks" will be at the Cowboys training camp! Seven years ago the show did the Cowboys and BBS and I watched Jerry Jones sit in on coaches meetings and even special teams meetings to offer his "advice" on how to run the team. Its going to be awesome to watch the Cowboys plant the seeds of their own destruction this year.

Oh and on a side note its worth noting that "Hard Knocks" really only chronicles bad teams like the Cowboys and Chiefs. The reason for this is simple; bad teams have drama such as Larry Johnson not showing up for training camp and as for the Cowboys their entire team/organization is a long brown stain of drama. "Hard Knocks" would never chronicle the Colts because it would just be boring watching an efficient and effective organization that promotes individuals based upon merit and cultivates team work.

The Cowboys are the opposite of that so they are perfect for this show.

I knew it was coming eventually, but I tried denying it.  Slowly but surely, sites like Facebook, Myspace, and YouTube have been blocked by my employer.  Believe it or not, even other SB Nation blogs were blocked, but not Stampede Blue.  Until today. 

Today was the day I got the dreaded Webwasher notification.  I knew it would happen eventually, but I wasn't prepared for it.  I was lost all morning.  I missed reading the new posts and takes from various fans.  Due to the advances in Internet usage with cell phones, I was able to view it... but it's just not the same.  Eventually I remoted into my home computer to view it but I have an uneasy feeling about tomorrow morning.  What will work be like without Stampede Blue?

On to Colts related thoughts, how could you not be excited for the start of the season?  Our entire team is essentially returning.  We now have the best backfield in a long time.  If Marvin comes back healthy, and not suspended, we'll have the best group of receivers in the NFL.  The young defense will have one more year of experience to build upon.  Don't you just want to play the games now?  The Bears visit in exactly four months, and I can't wait.

PFT's Mike Florio is now presenting rumor as fact over at the Sporting News. His most recent article for the Sporting News, detailing the facts of the incident involving Marvin Harrison outside a bar, is riff with multiple errors that anyone really following the true facts of the investigation should know.

Again, to put it bluntly, Florio is writing rumor and conveying it as fact, only this time he's not doing it for his own blog. He's doing it for the Sporting News:

Harrison reportedly claimed the gun involved in the shooting never left his home but yet on the same day it turned up in a bucket at his car wash. If the reports are true, police detectives surely view everything Harrison now says with a strong dose of skepticism.

This statement is completely and utterly false, based on reports from the police and from the Philadelphia Daily News:

On Wednesday, detectives visited Harrison's garage and detail shop, which he purchased in 2006 for $200,000, according to tax records.

Sources said that Harrison had a Belgian firearm, an FN5.7, in his garage. Harrison handed the high-powered weapon - which fires armor-piercing rounds - over to investigators.

He then spent about four hours at Central Detectives, accompanied by his attorney, Jerome Brown.

Now, that's pretty significant fact, one that Mr. Florio seems to have missed as he continues to scurry for more insider "dirt" on the Harrison case. To say that police essentially "stumbled upon" the weapon is very different from the fact that Harrison turned it over.

The other error here is invoking the NFL's  The Personal Conduct Policy. Florio states that if Harrison fired the gun or if someone else fired his gun, he is elligible for discipline under the policy:

The commission of a violent crime clearly is grounds for discipline, as is conduct that imposes "inherent risk" to the safety and well-being of another person. Shooting a man in the hand and sending five other bullets whizzing past him presumably would be enough to meet such a standard. Entrusting a gun to someone else who does the same thing could be a violation of the Personal Conduct Policy as well.

Not true, especially if self defense is the motive for firing the gun. If Roger Goodell wants ot try and suspend a player for defending himself against someone who, two weeks prior, was kicked out of the same bar for bad behavior, he better get ready for a suit from the Player's Union. This is especially true if Harrison didn't fire the gun. Suspending him for an act he did not even do makes absolutely no sense. Firing a gun in self defense is not illegal, and since Marvin Harrison has nothing on his record that indicates he is the kind of man who runs wildly into the street shooting at people, this explanation is reasonable.

This is likely why the NFL is being responsible and not saying anything until the facts of the case are revealed by the actual police detectives investigating the case, not the "Harvey the Rabbit sources" we readers keep hearing about. It's a shame writers like Mr. Florio are not as responsible.

The other thing that Mr. Florio likes to do (and for those who believe in due process and things like that, this should scare you) is jump to rash judgments before someone is even arrested or charged with a crime, let alone actually convicted:

Firing shots at someone else in public, complete with flying glass from one of the bullets striking and cutting a child, falls somewhere between 9 and 10 on the scale of the worst possible things an NFL player can do. Such behavior arguably is far worse than anything Jones, Vick, Chris Henry or Tank Johnson has done.

That said, it's unlikely that Goodell will act against Harrison before criminal charges (if any) against him are resolved. And given that Harrison reportedly still is having trouble with his knees, there is a chance he'll retire before he could be suspended.

Let's be clear about the facts here, because Mike Florio can't seem to get them straight (and for someone who is a lawyer in his day job, as Mr. Florio is, I express extreme concern for the clients he represents):

1) Marvin Harrison has not been charged with a crime. In fact, the police themselves have said he isn't even a suspect. So, writing an article which, essentially, states that Harrison is guilty, will go to jail, and will get suspended by Commissioner Goodell makes absolutely no sense.

2) Michael Vick and Tank Johnson were charged and pleaded guilty to their crimes. Vick, in particular, was suspended from the NFL for lying point blanc to Goodell's face. Pacman Jones has been involved in multiple off-the-field incidents that resulted in charges filed. Marvin Harrison hasn't been charged with anything and has cooperated fully with authorities who have questioned him. So, lumping him in with players like these is inappropriate and wrong at this point.

3) We don't know all the facts of the case because the police haven't officially released them. We've heard a lot of hearsay and rumor, much of which peddled by Mr. Florio. The fact that the injured party is not even willing to identify Marvin Harrison as the shooter speaks volumes as to how fragile this case is.

Could Marvin Harrison get charged? It's possible. It's also possible that Mike Florio will get fired from The Sporting News for botching up a pretty significant fact in an article presenting itself as providing facts on the incident. Does that mean it is appropriate for someone like me to start floating articles out there that Florio is getting the ax at TSN? No, of course not. Just as it is inappropriate for Florio to suggest Harrison will see jail time and suspension even though he isn't a suspect in the case (let alone charged or convicted).

He can do that over at PFT, but at the Sporting News I expect a different standard, and I hope their editors do to. Even people in Florio's comments area for the TSN article are killing him for his gaff:

Harrison voluntarily gave the gun to police. This was according to named police sources; more reliable than Johnny Anonymous' claims as reported by Angelo on WIP.

To recap, the Johnny Anonymous claimed:

-the shooting was outside the bar - wrong
-a two year old girl had glass in her eye - wrong
-Harrison hid the gun - wrong, wrong, wrong
-multiple witnesses were fingering Harrison as the shooter - wrong so far

Again, it is entirely possible that Marvin Harrison fired a gun at a man. But, since it is not proven (let alone charged as a crime), this kind of speculation is plain and simple bad journalism. And since Florio is writing this under The Sporting News' banner, he must be held accountable for this.

He can act like a "hack" all he wants at PFT. At the Sporting News, I expect some integrity and professionalism. I think their loyal readers do as well, and this type of "journalism" does not seem in line with those expectations.

The Indy Star made is official: Colts sign Rhodes to a one year, $605,000 contract. This means Dom must show up and have a great camp, because this contract is nothing. Look for Dom to work on having a stellar year. I think he wants a longer term contract, and he wants it with the Colts.

Next up: Rosy Colvin, then minicamp, and then we gear up for a 2008 team that looks much more improved over the 2007 one.