New this week: A new #1 and a flaw exposed in the system.

The same: Oakland still sucks. Big time.

PPYA Rankings went 9-5 for week 4 and 27-17 for weeks 2-4 (no week 1 as there was no stats to rank on before then). That's .614 winning percent, or #12 on King Kaufman's Panel O' Experts Standings and slightly better than Beatpaths' .583.

The biggest upsets were #20 Carolina over #8 New Orleans (the stats based system has yet to fully accoutn for Steve Smith being back. The first two weeks are still dragging the Panthers down) and #18 New England over #3 Cincinatti (who can predict the Pats this year? One week they look horrid, the next they look great)

So on to the rankings.

StampedeBlue.com PPYA Power Ranking, Week 4

PPYA Power Rank (Last Week)	Team	OPAPY	OPSPY	PPYA
1 (2)	Chicago	0.02237	0.07686	0.05449
2 (1)	San Diego	0.03798	0.07533	0.03735
3 (4)	Baltimore	0.03767	0.06662	0.02895
4 (7)	Dallas	0.05378	0.07643	0.02264
5 (6)	Indianapolis	0.06	0.07844	0.01844
6 (3)	Cincinnati	0.06163	0.0789	0.01728
7 (10)	Atlanta	0.0278	0.04497	0.01718
8 (12)	Philadelphia	0.04944	0.06506	0.01563
9 (31)	Kansas City*	0.0445	0.0568	0.0123
10 (18)	New England	0.04615	0.0571	0.01095
11 (16)	Buffalo	0.04801	0.05415	0.00613
12 (14)	St. Louis	0.05838	0.06395	0.00557
13 (17)	Cleveland	0.05983	0.06522	0.00538
14 (11)	Jacksonville	0.05534	0.0605	0.00516
15 (13)	Denver	0.03209	0.03684	0.00475
16 (9)	New York (A)	0.06015	0.06422	0.00407
17 (8)	New Orleans	0.05783	0.06115	0.00332
18 (5)	Seattle	0.06385	0.06678	0.00293
19 (20)	Carolina	0.0571	0.0569	-0.0002
20 (19)	Houston	0.06494	0.06129	-0.00365
21 (15)	Arizona	0.05987	0.0536	-0.00628
22 (21)	Minnesota	0.05613	0.04419	-0.01195
23 (22)	Pittsburgh	0.06095	0.04883	-0.01212
24 (25)	Miami	0.05883	0.04482	-0.01402
25 (24)	Washington	0.07315	0.0585	-0.01465
26 (29)	Detroit	0.07395	0.05504	-0.01891
27 (27)	Tampa Bay	0.06082	0.03846	-0.02236
28 (28)	New York (N)	0.08282	0.05878	-0.02404
29 (26)	Green Bay	0.06973	0.04453	-0.0252
30 (23)	San Francisco	0.08256	0.0542	-0.02836
31 (30)	Tennessee	0.074	0.04307	-0.03093
32 (32)	Oakland	0.09069	0.03955	-0.05115

Biggest Upgrade:* Kansas City Cheifs, +22 spots
Biggest Downgrade: Seattle Seahawks, -13 spots
Highest Ranked Loser (current ranking): #2 San Diego lost to #3 Baltimore
Lowest Ranked Winner (current ranking): #25 Washington beat #14 Jacksonville
Negative Line: #18 Seattle (0.00293), #19 Carolina (-0.0002)

*The Kansas City ranking highlights a flaw in the system this early in the season. They absolutely dominated the 49ers, driving up both their offensive and defensie points per yard rankings. This led to a huge jump in their power rank. In theory this will be averaged out over the season. For next year I want to research a way to put strength of schedule into the final power rankings.

Points Per Yard Offensive Ranking, Week 4

OPSPY rank	Team	OPSPY	yards gained rank	rank difference
1	Cincinnati	0.0789	(19)	(18)
2	Indianapolis	0.07844	(5)	(3)
3	Chicago	0.07686	(8)	(5)
4	Dallas	0.07643	(6)	(2)
5	San Diego	0.07533	(9)	(4)
6	Seattle	0.06678	(22)	(16)
7	Baltimore	0.06662	(28)	(21)
8	Cleveland	0.06522	(30)	(22)
9	Philadelphia	0.06506	(1)	(-8)
10	New York (A)	0.06422	(14)	(4)
11	St. Louis	0.06395	(11)	(0)
12	Houston	0.06129	(29)	(17)
13	New Orleans	0.06115	(7)	(-6)
14	Jacksonville	0.0605	(18)	(4)
15	New York (N)	0.05878	(2)	(-13)
16	Washington	0.0585	(3)	(-13)
17	New England	0.0571	(4)	(-13)
18	Carolina	0.0569	(23)	(5)
19	Kansas City	0.0568	(20)	(1)
20	Detroit	0.05504	(16)	(-4)
21	San Francisco	0.0542	(13)	(-8)
22	Buffalo	0.05415	(21)	(-1)
23	Arizona	0.0536	(24)	(1)
24	Pittsburgh	0.04883	(25)	(1)
25	Atlanta	0.04497	(10)	(-15)
26	Miami	0.04482	(26)	(0)
27	Green Bay	0.04453	(12)	(-15)
28	Minnesota	0.04419	(17)	(-11)
29	Tennessee	0.04307	(27)	(-2)
30	Oakland	0.03955	(32)	(2)
31	Tampa Bay	0.03846	(31)	(0)
32	Denver	0.03684	(15)	(-17)

We're starting to see the true best offenses head to the top and the teams with just good defenses that have put their teams in good position filter down a bit.

Most Overrated Offense: Denver. #15 in Yards Gained, but #32 in OPSPY.
Most Underrated Offense: Cleveland. #30 in Yards Gained, but #8 in OPSPY

Points Per Yard Defensive Ranking, Week 4

OPAPY rank	Team	OPAPY	yards allowed rank	rank difference
1	Chicago	0.02237	(4)	(3)
2	Atlanta	0.0278	(6)	(4)
3	Denver	0.03209	(17)	(14)
4	Baltimore	0.03767	(2)	(-2)
5	San Diego	0.03798	(1)	(-4)
6	Kansas City	0.0445	(3)	(-3)
7	New England	0.04615	(16)	(9)
8	Buffalo	0.04801	(12)	(4)
9	Philadelphia	0.04944	(21)	(12)
10	Dallas	0.05378	(5)	(-5)
11	Jacksonville	0.05534	(14)	(3)
12	Minnesota	0.05613	(10)	(-2)
13	Carolina	0.0571	(22)	(9)
14	New Orleans	0.05783	(8)	(-6)
15	St. Louis	0.05838	(18)	(3)
16	Miami	0.05883	(7)	(-9)
17	Cleveland	0.05983	(25)	(8)
18	Arizona	0.05987	(28)	(10)
19	Indianapolis	0.06	(20)	(1)
20	New York (A)	0.06015	(29)	(9)
21	Tampa Bay	0.06082	(19)	(-2)
22	Pittsburgh	0.06095	(11)	(-11)
23	Cincinnati	0.06163	(23)	(0)
24	Seattle	0.06385	(13)	(-11)
25	Houston	0.06494	(32)	(7)
26	Green Bay	0.06973	(31)	(5)
27	Washington	0.07315	(15)	(-12)
28	Detroit	0.07395	(26)	(-2)
29	Tennessee	0.074	(30)	(1)
30	San Francisco	0.08256	(24)	(-6)
31	New York (N)	0.08282	(27)	(-4)
32	Oakland	0.09069	(9)	(-23)

The top defenses aren't a big surprise really. Only Denver is in the top 5 when they are much lower in typical yards allowed ranking.

Most Overrated Defense: Oakland. #9 in Yards Allowed but #32 in OPAPY. They are allowing just a hair over .09 points for every yard they allow. To show just how bad that is, that is over 4 times worse than the #1 Defense.
Most Underrated Defense: Denver. #17 in Yards Allowed but #3 in OPAPY.

Week 5 Games:
#11 Buffalo @ #1 Chicago
#12 St. Louis @ #29 Green Bay
#31 Tennessee @ #5 Indianapolis
#26 Detroit @ #22 Minnesota
#24 Miami @ #10 New England
#27 Tampa Bay @ #17 New Orleans
#25 Washington @ #28 New York Giants
#13 Cleveland @ #19 Carolina
#9 Kansas City @ #21 Arizona
#32 Oakland @ #30 San Francisco
#16 New York Jets @ #14 Jacksonville
#4 Dallas @ #8 Philadelphia
#23 Pittsburgh @ #2 San Diego
#3 Baltimore @ #15 Denver

I'll come back during the games and put the winners in bold and track how well these rankings are doing.

10-5 for week 5 games.