New this week: A new #1 and a flaw exposed in the system.
The same: Oakland still sucks. Big time.
PPYA Rankings went 9-5 for week 4 and 27-17 for weeks 2-4 (no week 1 as there was no stats to rank on before then). That's .614 winning percent, or #12 on King Kaufman's Panel O' Experts Standings and slightly better than Beatpaths' .583.
The biggest upsets were #20 Carolina over #8 New Orleans (the stats based system has yet to fully accoutn for Steve Smith being back. The first two weeks are still dragging the Panthers down) and #18 New England over #3 Cincinatti (who can predict the Pats this year? One week they look horrid, the next they look great)
So on to the rankings.
StampedeBlue.com PPYA Power Ranking, Week 4
PPYA Power Rank (Last Week) | Team | OPAPY | OPSPY | PPYA |
1 (2) | Chicago | 0.02237 | 0.07686 | 0.05449 |
2 (1) | San Diego | 0.03798 | 0.07533 | 0.03735 |
3 (4) | Baltimore | 0.03767 | 0.06662 | 0.02895 |
4 (7) | Dallas | 0.05378 | 0.07643 | 0.02264 |
5 (6) | Indianapolis | 0.06 | 0.07844 | 0.01844 |
6 (3) | Cincinnati | 0.06163 | 0.0789 | 0.01728 |
7 (10) | Atlanta | 0.0278 | 0.04497 | 0.01718 |
8 (12) | Philadelphia | 0.04944 | 0.06506 | 0.01563 |
9 (31) | Kansas City* | 0.0445 | 0.0568 | 0.0123 |
10 (18) | New England | 0.04615 | 0.0571 | 0.01095 |
11 (16) | Buffalo | 0.04801 | 0.05415 | 0.00613 |
12 (14) | St. Louis | 0.05838 | 0.06395 | 0.00557 |
13 (17) | Cleveland | 0.05983 | 0.06522 | 0.00538 |
14 (11) | Jacksonville | 0.05534 | 0.0605 | 0.00516 |
15 (13) | Denver | 0.03209 | 0.03684 | 0.00475 |
16 (9) | New York (A) | 0.06015 | 0.06422 | 0.00407 |
17 (8) | New Orleans | 0.05783 | 0.06115 | 0.00332 |
18 (5) | Seattle | 0.06385 | 0.06678 | 0.00293 |
19 (20) | Carolina | 0.0571 | 0.0569 | -0.0002 |
20 (19) | Houston | 0.06494 | 0.06129 | -0.00365 |
21 (15) | Arizona | 0.05987 | 0.0536 | -0.00628 |
22 (21) | Minnesota | 0.05613 | 0.04419 | -0.01195 |
23 (22) | Pittsburgh | 0.06095 | 0.04883 | -0.01212 |
24 (25) | Miami | 0.05883 | 0.04482 | -0.01402 |
25 (24) | Washington | 0.07315 | 0.0585 | -0.01465 |
26 (29) | Detroit | 0.07395 | 0.05504 | -0.01891 |
27 (27) | Tampa Bay | 0.06082 | 0.03846 | -0.02236 |
28 (28) | New York (N) | 0.08282 | 0.05878 | -0.02404 |
29 (26) | Green Bay | 0.06973 | 0.04453 | -0.0252 |
30 (23) | San Francisco | 0.08256 | 0.0542 | -0.02836 |
31 (30) | Tennessee | 0.074 | 0.04307 | -0.03093 |
32 (32) | Oakland | 0.09069 | 0.03955 | -0.05115 |
Biggest Downgrade: Seattle Seahawks, -13 spots
Highest Ranked Loser (current ranking): #2 San Diego lost to #3 Baltimore
Lowest Ranked Winner (current ranking): #25 Washington beat #14 Jacksonville
Negative Line: #18 Seattle (0.00293), #19 Carolina (-0.0002)
*The Kansas City ranking highlights a flaw in the system this early in the season. They absolutely dominated the 49ers, driving up both their offensive and defensie points per yard rankings. This led to a huge jump in their power rank. In theory this will be averaged out over the season. For next year I want to research a way to put strength of schedule into the final power rankings.
Points Per Yard Offensive Ranking, Week 4
OPSPY rank | Team | OPSPY | yards gained rank | rank difference |
1 | Cincinnati | 0.0789 | (19) | (18) |
2 | Indianapolis | 0.07844 | (5) | (3) |
3 | Chicago | 0.07686 | (8) | (5) |
4 | Dallas | 0.07643 | (6) | (2) |
5 | San Diego | 0.07533 | (9) | (4) |
6 | Seattle | 0.06678 | (22) | (16) |
7 | Baltimore | 0.06662 | (28) | (21) |
8 | Cleveland | 0.06522 | (30) | (22) |
9 | Philadelphia | 0.06506 | (1) | (-8) |
10 | New York (A) | 0.06422 | (14) | (4) |
11 | St. Louis | 0.06395 | (11) | (0) |
12 | Houston | 0.06129 | (29) | (17) |
13 | New Orleans | 0.06115 | (7) | (-6) |
14 | Jacksonville | 0.0605 | (18) | (4) |
15 | New York (N) | 0.05878 | (2) | (-13) |
16 | Washington | 0.0585 | (3) | (-13) |
17 | New England | 0.0571 | (4) | (-13) |
18 | Carolina | 0.0569 | (23) | (5) |
19 | Kansas City | 0.0568 | (20) | (1) |
20 | Detroit | 0.05504 | (16) | (-4) |
21 | San Francisco | 0.0542 | (13) | (-8) |
22 | Buffalo | 0.05415 | (21) | (-1) |
23 | Arizona | 0.0536 | (24) | (1) |
24 | Pittsburgh | 0.04883 | (25) | (1) |
25 | Atlanta | 0.04497 | (10) | (-15) |
26 | Miami | 0.04482 | (26) | (0) |
27 | Green Bay | 0.04453 | (12) | (-15) |
28 | Minnesota | 0.04419 | (17) | (-11) |
29 | Tennessee | 0.04307 | (27) | (-2) |
30 | Oakland | 0.03955 | (32) | (2) |
31 | Tampa Bay | 0.03846 | (31) | (0) |
32 | Denver | 0.03684 | (15) | (-17) |
Most Overrated Offense: Denver. #15 in Yards Gained, but #32 in OPSPY.
Most Underrated Offense: Cleveland. #30 in Yards Gained, but #8 in OPSPY
Points Per Yard Defensive Ranking, Week 4
OPAPY rank | Team | OPAPY | yards allowed rank | rank difference |
1 | Chicago | 0.02237 | (4) | (3) |
2 | Atlanta | 0.0278 | (6) | (4) |
3 | Denver | 0.03209 | (17) | (14) |
4 | Baltimore | 0.03767 | (2) | (-2) |
5 | San Diego | 0.03798 | (1) | (-4) |
6 | Kansas City | 0.0445 | (3) | (-3) |
7 | New England | 0.04615 | (16) | (9) |
8 | Buffalo | 0.04801 | (12) | (4) |
9 | Philadelphia | 0.04944 | (21) | (12) |
10 | Dallas | 0.05378 | (5) | (-5) |
11 | Jacksonville | 0.05534 | (14) | (3) |
12 | Minnesota | 0.05613 | (10) | (-2) |
13 | Carolina | 0.0571 | (22) | (9) |
14 | New Orleans | 0.05783 | (8) | (-6) |
15 | St. Louis | 0.05838 | (18) | (3) |
16 | Miami | 0.05883 | (7) | (-9) |
17 | Cleveland | 0.05983 | (25) | (8) |
18 | Arizona | 0.05987 | (28) | (10) |
19 | Indianapolis | 0.06 | (20) | (1) |
20 | New York (A) | 0.06015 | (29) | (9) |
21 | Tampa Bay | 0.06082 | (19) | (-2) |
22 | Pittsburgh | 0.06095 | (11) | (-11) |
23 | Cincinnati | 0.06163 | (23) | (0) |
24 | Seattle | 0.06385 | (13) | (-11) |
25 | Houston | 0.06494 | (32) | (7) |
26 | Green Bay | 0.06973 | (31) | (5) |
27 | Washington | 0.07315 | (15) | (-12) |
28 | Detroit | 0.07395 | (26) | (-2) |
29 | Tennessee | 0.074 | (30) | (1) |
30 | San Francisco | 0.08256 | (24) | (-6) |
31 | New York (N) | 0.08282 | (27) | (-4) |
32 | Oakland | 0.09069 | (9) | (-23) |
Most Overrated Defense: Oakland. #9 in Yards Allowed but #32 in OPAPY. They are allowing just a hair over .09 points for every yard they allow. To show just how bad that is, that is over 4 times worse than the #1 Defense.
Most Underrated Defense: Denver. #17 in Yards Allowed but #3 in OPAPY.
Week 5 Games:
#11 Buffalo @ #1 Chicago
#12 St. Louis @ #29 Green Bay
#31 Tennessee @ #5 Indianapolis
#26 Detroit @ #22 Minnesota
#24 Miami @ #10 New England
#27 Tampa Bay @ #17 New Orleans
#25 Washington @ #28 New York Giants
#13 Cleveland @ #19 Carolina
#9 Kansas City @ #21 Arizona
#32 Oakland @ #30 San Francisco
#16 New York Jets @ #14 Jacksonville
#4 Dallas @ #8 Philadelphia
#23 Pittsburgh @ #2 San Diego
#3 Baltimore @ #15 Denver
I'll come back during the games and put the winners in bold and track how well these rankings are doing.
10-5 for week 5 games.