Why the Colts will beat the Patriots next Sunday ...

by PaytonMenning on Oct 28, 2007 11:45 PM EDT Comment 25 comments

The Pats opponents so far do not having a winning record.

Jets (1-7)
San Diego (4-3)
Buffalo (3-4)
Cincy (2-5)
Cleveland (4-3)
Dallas (6-1)
Miami (0-8)
Washington (4-3). Combined Win-Loss 24-34.

Ours do:

NO (3-4)
Ten (5-2)
Houston (3-5)
Denver (3-3)
TB (4-4),
Jax (5-2)
Carolina (4-3). Combined Win-Loss 27-23

Even discounting Miami, the Pats opponents combined have lost 2 more games than they've won.

The defenses the Patriots have faced have just been weak. Here's how they rank according to ESPN:

The Jets #28, SD #16, BUF #31, Cincy #29, Cleveland #32, Dallas #7, Miami #27, Washington #5. That means NE has played 5 of the 6 worst defenses in the NFL over their 8 game stretch.

In comparison, the worst opponent we've faced, NO ranks in at #22.

We also play in THE toughest division in the NFL, while the AFC East is duking it out for last with the NFC West. NFC West people - SF, St. Louis, Arizona and Seattle.

Lastly, I believe the Patriots are on autopilot. I think they're getting "comfortable", making assumptions about how easy they think football is. Everyone said the Panthers' would be a trap game for us ... I think we've laid a pretty nice trap for the Patriots ourselves.

Just my .02, but right here, right now, I predict a Week 9 victory. Colts 35, Patriots 31.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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they also faced 2 of the best as well

which they completely shredded.

by Terry on Oct 28, 2007 11:50 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Washington ...

is overrated, again due to opponents.

Dallas is the only really decent defense they've faced, IMHO.

by PaytonMenning on Oct 28, 2007 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

also

while Jets, Cincy, Buffalo and Clevelands defense sucks, SD defense doesn't, its pretty good.

by Terry on Oct 28, 2007 11:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dude ...

SD is #16, which is not one of the best. It's middle of the pack. Also, SD was not playing anywhere near as well as they are now at the top of the season.

by PaytonMenning on Oct 28, 2007 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I didn't say they were one of the best

I just said they didn't suck.

by Terry on Oct 28, 2007 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll admit when I'm wrong,

I misread due to your double post. I will say that I think middle of the pack is not "pretty good" ...

by PaytonMenning on Oct 28, 2007 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The Colts will win

because good always beats evil. Throw the records out. The season starts next Sunday.

by beckmania on Oct 29, 2007 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Good over evil

I thought that Evil always defeats Good, because Good is dumb?

(see: spaceballs) ;-)

Check it to pancakes! Pancakes!

by Picky on Oct 29, 2007 1:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Smart money

I know good always beats evil in the movies, but if I had to bet on one or the other, I think I'd invest in evil.

by Masson on Oct 30, 2007 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ojfasdomyma

I want to see Addai and Keith combine for at least 300 rushing yards.

Go Colts!

by KingRichard on Oct 29, 2007 1:05 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

The Pats..

have destroyed everyone they've played. You can't play 1/4 of all the teams in the NFL, destroy every one of them, and be getting by on a statistical anomally. The fact is they are a great team.

The Colts are the only team in the NFL that can beat them right now. It's going to take everything the Colts have, which is why they held so many starters out of the Panthers game.

Both the Colts and the Pats go into a game and totally disrupt the other teams' game plan. You may be the top 5 rushing offense, or the top 5 rushing defense or whatever and by the end of the game you'll look like your playing in a local bar league.

It's going to be the clash of the titans.

My only concern is that we'll have to put up with a couple weeks of smack-talking Pats fans on this Colts site.

by will on Oct 29, 2007 4:02 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True...

but the pats have also been running up the score padding their numbers.

Indy has only ONE td scored with less than 11 mins left in the 4th qtr. If Indy wanted to go slap on junk tds they could and could be up there in the high 30s ppg figure. What is funny is they are still avg 32 yet their O hasn't fully clicked for one full game and they have actually played some decent teams. Amazing...

It isn't hard to get another 1 or 2 late 4th qtr TDs when the other team doesn't give a rip and is amazed that the coach that is kicking their asses would go and keep running it up. IMO the Pats are doing this simply to try and put fear in other teams, make fans/media think they are sooooooo unstoppable and also of course to try and break records, which they say don't matter to them which we know is BS.

I have watched most of the pats games this season and honestly, what they are doing is nothing better than what Indy is doing aside form the fact NE hasn't been off. Basically, NE isn't doing anything special and aside from the efficiency they have also had some nice luck. I have seen 3 balls the last 2 games that brady threw which should have been easy INTs but they weren't and led to TDs.

The Pats ARE a great team and their O has been deadly efficient but based on the 41.9 ppg fig and the crap of it being best O ever, I think it is over rated.

I feel that if the Colts don't shoot themselves in the foot or start out flat they should beat them. If they start out flat and their D is off early on then it may be a long game.

One thing that gets overlooked is that NE's D hasn't drastically improved since that AFC final game and THAT is why they lost the game.

by Rob L on Oct 29, 2007 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you think

they'll call Illegal contact in this one. If not, I'd really enjoy watching Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden abuse the shit out of their receivers.

by shake n bake on Oct 29, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

am i the only one...

that thinks it would serve bellicheck right if brady got injured in one of those 4th quarter stunts where he is racking up stats during a blowout? not that i wish injury on anyone, but i would certainly love the heat bellicheat would take for it.

it'll be a great game. i really hope marlin jackson is ready to go for this one.

by tenyardfight on Oct 29, 2007 10:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Logic escapes this thread...

Case in point...the "strength of schedule" argument is a fallacy.

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/2_987_2007_Quality_Standings.html

This is going to be a great game. In my opinion, it is not the end of the world for the loser of the game. It is for home field, but I think both teams are capable of beating the other in the playoffs on their turf. I am just excited as we are watching quite possible the two best quarterbacks ever at the prime of their careers...

by InBradyWeTrust on Oct 29, 2007 11:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

only a little

The Pats have played more teams with a winning record (they'll be tied at 4 with the Broncos win tonight) so saying the Pats have played no one good isn't accurate.

The huge margins of victory the Pats have put up aren't as impressive when you look at how horrible some of the teams they've played are (and how long they wait to pull starters).

The Pats have played 3 teams with a worse record than the worst the Colts played. No one can honestly say the Pats aren't excellent and one of the top 2 in the NFL, but the schedules do show some of why the Pats have looked so good.

by shake n bake on Oct 29, 2007 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

if the Broncos win tonight

or with a Broncos win tonight

not with the Broncos win tonight

by shake n bake on Oct 29, 2007 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And the Broncos ...

didn't win tonight.

Face it, the Pats have not faced good teams. Period. 5 of the 6 worst defenses in the league!!!

by PaytonMenning on Oct 30, 2007 4:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so what?

I guarantee they put up at least 30 on the Colts. If the Colts win this game, they'll have to score 35-40 at least.

by Terry on Oct 30, 2007 8:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Once again, Terry proves ...

that he can't read. If you bothered to read the post, you'd see. What score did I predict?

IDIOT.

by PaytonMenning on Oct 31, 2007 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I can make the same argument in reverse

by saying the Colts defense hasn't played any good offenses either.

I think its a stupid argument to compare who the teams have played, it doesn't matter.

by Terry on Oct 31, 2007 9:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

logic

I prefer Football Outsiders for my football statistics wonkery and if you compare the strength of schedule so far for both teams as computed by the statistics geniuses at FO:

Indianapolis: #14
New England: #25

So let's just look at the wins and losses of each teams's opponents (and look at them without NE or IND involved)

Indianapolis:
Opponent record (record minus IND)
----------------------------------
New Orleans: 3-4 (3-3)
Tennessee:5-2 (5-1)
Houston: 3-5 (3-4)
Denver: 3-3 (3-2)
Tampa Bay: 4-4 (4-3)
Jacksonville: 5-2 (5-1)
Carolina: 4-3 (4-2)
Total: 27-23 (27-16)
Percent: 0.540 (0.628)

New England:
Opponent record (record minus IND)
----------------------------------
NY Jets: 1-7 (1-6)
San Diego: 4-3 (4-2)
Buffalo: 3-4 (3-3)
Cincinnati: 2-5 (2-4)
Cleveland: 4-3 (4-2)
Dallas: 6-1 (6-0)
Miami: 0-8 (0-7)
Washington: 4-3 (4-2)
Total: 24-34 (24-26)
Percent: 0.414 (0.480)

Alright so that pretty clearly shows that the opponents that NE has faced are pretty inferior on the whole to the opponents IND has faced.

But what about second order records? That is, what about the same analysis for each team each team has played? We'll calculate this by doing teh same thing as done above to NE and IND to each of their opponents. For example, New Orleans has played IND, TEN, TB, CAR, SEA, ATL and SF. What are their combined records? We'll take out IND and NE for each one to look at those teams alone. Hope this makes sense. Essentially we'll look at the combined records of TEN, TB, CAR, SEA, ATL and SF to get Second Order Record

Second Order Record = combined record of opponent's opponents - records of IND/NE

This is all REALLY rough and quick, but highlights strength of opponents' schedule.

Indianapolis:
Team (Second Order Record)
-------------------------------
New Orleans (20-23)
Tennessee (18-26)
Houston (23-27)
Denver (19-16)
Tampa Bay (21-22)
Jacksonville (20-23)
Carolina (14-31)
Total (135-168)
Percent 0.446

New England:
Team (Second Order Record)
-------------------------------
NY Jets (21-30)
San Diego (20-22)
Buffalo (20-23)
Cincinnati (22-21)
Cleveland (13-31)
Dallas (15-31)
Miami (26-26)
Washington (22-21)
Total (159-205)
Percent 0.437

So second order record for NE is just slightly worse than IND, meaning that it's not like NE's bad schedule is due to their opponents playing tougher teams than IND's opponents play.

This seems to me to pretty much prove that NE's strength of schedule is more than just marginally worse than IND's. It's significantly worse. I'm not saying they are a bad team. They are obviously a good team. But the margin's of victory and the praise heaped upon the team for their offensive output REALLLLY needs to be put into perspective of their records.

Oh, and just for Terry: Only two teams have played BOTH of the 0-8 teams in the NFL so far this season. Cleveland. And Dallas. Quality schedule of your own there. ;)

Charlie Weis Ate My Baby

by jdb on Oct 29, 2007 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs