Aaron Schatz takes a schatz on Brady's 2007 season

by BigBlueShoe on Dec 29, 2007 5:29 PM EST in Analysis Comment 20 comments

Fox Sports Adam Schatz puts Brady's stat-padding 2007 season in perspective:

It' hard to compare Brady's season to what [Bert] Jones did in 1976 without all the fancy normalizing math from the book, but let's compare Brady's 2007 season to Manning's 2004 season. Manning had 49 touchdowns with just 497 pass attempts. If we assume Brady plays next week like he has the last few games, he'll end up with something like 51 touchdowns in 570 pass attempts. Yes, that gives him more touchdowns, but it isn't as impressive when it takes him 73 more pass attempts to score them.

In addition, Brady has now dropped to 8.3 average yards per attempt. In his record-setting season, Manning averaged 9.2 yards per attempt. That's a huge difference.

Brady has been straining so hard to set records in conventional stats that his season now looks worse in the eyes of advanced stats.

Michael David Smith is also talking about this over at Fanhouse (tip to shake n bake). Smith is traditionally an idiot, but he makes some good points as well. Bottom line: As great as Brady's 2007 season is, it does not measure up to Peyton Manning's 2004 season. And like many of us, Schatz and Smith have noted Brady's pathetic attempts to pad his stats rather than play to win football games. Can you imagine if Manning had played this way in 2004? He'd have scored 55-60 TDs, easy. The one benefit of all the Brady love is it has placed Manning's 2004 into it's proper context: It was the best season ever for a QB, and even with a Randy Moss-led offense that passes ALL THE TIME, no one can touch what Manning did.

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who cares?

honestly, if he did match Peyton's 04 season, I wouldn't lose any sleep. All that matters to me is that we go into Foxboro this January (if "Jagsonville" isn't coming to the dome) and kick some ass. Let him have the record, let them have the stats. Those things mean nothing to the Colts and they mean nothing to anybody else but ESPN. I'm just ready to put on my gameface and head to Phoenix.

by bleedingblue on Dec 29, 2007 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm not as hard on Smith

He says some stupid stuff, but the volume of sportswriting he puts out is so huge some stupid stuff is going to come out. I don't think he's an idiot, I think he's perfectly willing to turn out poorly researched crap if there's another paycheck involved.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/

by shake n bake on Dec 29, 2007 5:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

individual stats mean nothing

if they don't accompany a championship, so it will depend how the Pats finish the season before you can determine how great Brady's season is.

by Terry on Dec 29, 2007 7:49 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

to you?

You're an idiot, and no one cares what you think.

Invdividual stats mean everything when comparing individual players. When comparing teams, Invididual stats don't count for much.

by PaytonMenning on Dec 30, 2007 3:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

since you're the moron

what I was trying to say is that Brady's 50 TDs won't mean anything unless he finishes the season with a SB victory and I'm sure he would tell you the same thing.

Just like Manning's best season wasn't in 2004 or this season, it was last season because he won the SB.

Individual stats mean absolutely unless they are accomplished to achieve a greater goal, ie championship.

But then again you're obviously too stupid too understand that concept.

by Terry on Dec 30, 2007 2:51 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I seriously doubt ...

Brady would tell you his 50 TD record "meant nothing" to him. Otherwise, he would have sat out game 16, instead of forcing passes into coverage for Moss.

by PaytonMenning on Dec 31, 2007 2:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

obviously you can't either read

or understand English because I never said Brady's 50 TDs mean nothing to him NOW, I said it will mean nothing to him IF the Pats don't win the SB.

Big difference son.

by Terry on Dec 31, 2007 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

Ultimately, the Patriots' season will be judged on their post-season success. If they flame out against the Jags, it'll be the biggest choke job this side of a gonzo porn set. If they lose against the Colts in the AFC Championship, it'll depend on how they lose. If it's a blowout, then history will read "The 07 Patriots played in the worst division in football and had a cupcake schedule, and got bounced by a good team and crumbled under pressure." If it's not a blowout, it'll be "In a classic game, Peyton Manning outdueled Tom Brady to take the Colts to their second consecutive Super Bowl."

"Hey, if you want me to come here, I want to come here. But if you don't, I'm going to beat your butt for 15 years playing in the AFC." -Peyton Manning-

by MonkeyBusiness on Dec 29, 2007 9:11 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and if they lose in the SB

it will be, "Cowboys show world who the best team in football really is." ;)

by Terry on Dec 29, 2007 9:19 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

don't you mean...

...the packers? ;)

by Ed OG on Dec 29, 2007 10:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

very funny

by Terry on Dec 29, 2007 10:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

If the Cowboys beat the Patriots

The headlines will read "Cowboys upset Patriots, Brady has bad game."

"Hey, if you want me to come here, I want to come here. But if you don't, I'm going to beat your butt for 15 years playing in the AFC." -Peyton Manning-

by MonkeyBusiness on Dec 29, 2007 9:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

and "Romo outplays Brady"

by Terry on Dec 29, 2007 9:48 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Since it is "Fantasy Land Times"

how about "IRS dissolved!" or "Monkeys fly out of butts everywhere!!!"

"Pigs flying... without wings!!!"

"Pope converts to Scientology!"

"Bears start using toilets?!?"

Go Colts!

by Marked Hoosier on Dec 29, 2007 9:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and I'll remember to throw

this post back in your face when it happens on Feb 3.

by Terry on Dec 29, 2007 10:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can have my first born...

if that happens.

Wade Phillips isn't known for his post season success...

Go Colts!

by Marked Hoosier on Dec 29, 2007 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

neither was Belichick before

he had Brady at QB. Graet QBs tend to make you a better coach in case you haven't noticed.

by Terry on Dec 30, 2007 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah ...

Shaun King sure made Dungy look like a bad coach.

Good coaching is good coaching. Bad commentary is bad commentary, and makes you look dumb, like usual.

by PaytonMenning on Dec 31, 2007 2:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Those...

dirty pieces of $hit, they deseverve everthing they have won, IN THE REGULAR SEASON OF 2007!!!

"GO HORSE!"

by beester on Dec 29, 2007 11:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Schatz was almost right on in the #

50 TDs in 578 attempts. It took Brady 81 more passes (76 subtracting the 5 he threw after TD #50) to break Manning's record. 52 More attempts to tie Peyton at 49.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/

by shake n bake on Dec 30, 2007 1:37 AM EST reply actions 0 recs