Curse of The Third Round Pick! Starring Bill Polian

by BigBlueShoe on May 2, 2007 10:39 AM EDT in Analysis

Cue cheesy Phantom of the Opera organ

Bill Polian is the best in the league at finding talent in the draft. Nobody is better. Nobody. Not Scott Pioli, not Rich McKay, and not Ozzie Newsome. While these GMs excel in other areas (Pioli is a master of finding cheap free agent talent), Polian is the unquestioned master of finding draft gems in early and later rounds. He drafted Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, Edgerrin James over Ricky Williams, and Reggie Wayne over an assortment of scrubs like Fred Smoot and Will Allen. He found Antoine Bethea and Cato June in round 6, Robert Mathis in round 5, and Jason David in round 4. He is amazing at finding talent in the draft, and using the Colts system of internal development to craft good players. He is an alchemist. He can make gold from iron. He can make magic, and find championship caliber players in the draft.

Except in the 3rd round.

The 3rd round for the Colts has been a veritable fright fest during the Polian and Dungy years. Don't believe me? Well, allow me to show you, and don't say I didn't warn you:

2002 Pick #74: Joseph Jefferson, SS, W. Kentucky
He was cut from the team in 2005 after three injury-riddled seasons. I believe he is out of football.

2003 Pick #90: Donald Strickland, CB, Colorado
Strickland was cut in 2005 as well. Many questioned his effort and desire. He signed with the Eagles and never saw the field. He too is out of football, I think.

2004 Picks 68 and 69: Ben Hartstock, TE, OSU and GILBERT GARDNER, LB, Purdue
I warned you about shutting your eyes. Hartstock was a total bust as undrafted players like Bryan Fletcher out played him for more starting time. With Fletcher, Clark, and Ben Utecht on the team, Hartstock (oft-injured) was cut in 2006. Gilbert Gardner became a starter at SAM in 2006, and was so bad he got benched before the playoffs and his own coach ripped him. He's now the goat fans like to point to and laugh at.

2005 Pick #92: Vincent Burns, DT, Kentucky
Dungy was very high on "Sweat Pee" Burns when they drafted him. Yet, despite all the injuries last year at DT, Burns never saw the field. Hell, he never got off the practice squad! It remains to be seen what the Colts will do with him, but if he ever had a chance to prove his worth, it was last season. He didn't.

The one exception to the third round curse might be last year's pick at #94: LB Freddie Keiaho, San Diego State. Keiaho played well last year relieving Gary Brackett at MLB. However, this might be fool's gold. Gilbert Gardner played well in relief work in 2005 at WILL when Cato June was hurt. We know how that turned out. So, it is very possible that Keiaho (the new starting WILL) could stink ala Gardner.

This season, I dare say it is vital that the 3rd round curse get lifted. 3rd rounders Qinn PitCOCK and Daymeion Hughes are vital to this team repeating. Unlike guys like Gardner, Burns, and Strickland, the 3rd rounders this season are proven. Hughes was a stud at Cal and QP was a very good DT on a young OSU defense. Hopefully, after winning the Super Bowl, all the previous "curses" associated with this team got lifted, including the curse of the 3rd round. If not, then it is up to us fans to drug Bill Polian during the 3rd round next season and pick for him. Then, when he wakes up, he can pick the rest of the draft.

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Comments

like I said before

when you posted a thread bashing Mel Kiper, the draft is a 50/50 proposition at best, I don't care how great of a talent evaluator you are, and that includes Polian. This thread of continual 3rd rd busts prove that.

You're gonna hit on half of your picks if you're lucky and believe me, projecting college players to the next levels is more about luck than anything else.

I say if half of your draft makes the team and either becomes starters or solid backups, you've done a great job.

by Terry on May 2, 2007 11:43 AM EDT 0 recs

good point

hard as it is to swallow terry makes a very good point. drafts are a crap shoot. you are looking at a college player and guessing how he will develop. polian is better than averge, but no one hits it all the time. at least it is our 3rd rounders that are coming up short and not the guys from the first or second for the most part (who are the really expensive players...) another spot they excel at are the undrafted guys. saturday, rhodes and other good players have come out of this bunch...

by bluegirl on May 2, 2007 11:59 AM EDT 0 recs

It really kind of makes sense in this way.

Polian is really good at finding undervalued/unknown talent. The 3rd round is where most of the productive,named,widely known guys get taken off the board. Polian for the most part likes to stay away from guys everyone else knows about. He wants to uncover a "hidden gem" if you will. Guys like that are generally hungry when taken in later rounds. Guys like that tend to be complacent if given bigger early round bonuses. Either that or its a crapshoot like you guys said.

by aaronb on May 2, 2007 6:05 PM EDT 0 recs

Ben Hartsock and Gilbert Gardner

Many forget but Ben Hartsock was a Gem at Ohio State who looked good in pre-season he tore his acl and once you do that its a crap shoot whether you will ever recover or not.
As for Gilbert Gardner, I personally think he is better than people think but was just put in the wrong situation last year. He played Weak side all through college and Landon Johnson who has turned into a very solid linebacker for the Bengals played strong. I still think Gilbert can be effective at least as a back up if he stays at Will.

Belive in Blue!! OgreMan78

by OgreMan78 on May 3, 2007 11:14 AM EDT 0 recs