Jags win echoes 2007 ...

by PaytonMenning on Jan 6, 2008 12:17 AM EST Comment 38 comments

Anyone else think this win sets up a 2006 playoff type scenario? In those playoffs, NE knocked out SD for us, while SD was widely viewed as our "kryptonite" for the playoffs. Now the Jags look like the most likely team to knock out NE next weekend. There's no reason to think that Tom Brady won't torch the Jags secondary (after all, Manning does it all the time), but you do have to think that the Jags ball control run first offense, can keep Tom and company off the field. At this point, I can't decide who I'd rather see less in the AFCCG - NE or the Jags. However, certainly our worst case scenario is seeing the Titans go to NE, and having the Jags come to the dome.

Thoughts?

Anyway, Jags or Chargers, bring 'em on!

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Not quite

Let's ask ourselves this question: do we really want to face a Jaguars team, again, after they knocked off Pittsburgh and New England? Even if it's in the Dome, we play them twice a year. We got lucky last time; I'm not entirely sure we'd win a third meeting.

Best case scenario? Jags go to New England, Indy gets San Diego. Why is this the best case scenario? Because the Jags run the kind of offense that will keep the Pats off the field and will wear out their defense. Win or lose, they're setting them up for whoever wins here. By the second half of the AFC Championship game, they'll be completely gassed. The Chargers are a good team, but Norv Turner? In the playoffs? In the RCA Dome? With Tony Dungy, Peyton Manning, and a healthy compliment of Colts receivers on the other side? No way. Let's be really honest for a minute: the Bolts got lucky. WAY lucky. Charlie Johnson was a revolving door most of the game. Manning was throwing to a double and triple covered Reggie Wayne, and then a JV receiving corps. Next time, he'll have Ugoh protecting his back, Diem protecting his front, and Marvin, Reggie, Gonzo, Dallas, and Addai to throw to. The Colts D has established that running to the outside is a bad idea. They're too fast, and they tend to blow plays like that up in the backfield. If I'm Norv Turner, I'm alternating LT and Turner and going straight through the middle of the line, and praying to my diety of choice that Rivers doesn't think the Colts' secondary is part of his receiving corps.. If I'm Tony Dungy, I'm putting Sanders in the box to pop LT and Gates. And if I'm Ron Meeks, I'm thinking "We should blitz. Just a little. Not too much. But enough to have Rivers running for his life making bad decisions."

The key to this game is bad decisions, and who makes less. And you have a hard time picking against Dungy and Manning for that.

"Hey, if you want me to come here, I want to come here. But if you don't, I'm going to beat your butt for 15 years playing in the AFC." -Peyton Manning-

by MonkeyBusiness on Jan 6, 2008 1:00 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Your Scenario

I got a feeling that the Titans are going home tomorrow to work on their golf game. But the things you say about San Diego make me wonder if the Titans might have what it takes to squeak it out. I thought the Jags were going to blow out the Steelers. Phew that was close!

See, what would be cool is if the Jags beat the Patriots and we had an "all AFC-South" AFC Championship.

Plus, I'd just like to see the Pats get hammered in their very first playoff game this year. "YEah! Greatest team everrr....nevermind."

Check it to pancakes! Pancakes!

by Picky on Jan 6, 2008 1:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Oh ...

Sure it's the same. NE knocked off SD, who had the best regular season record in the NFL last season. We still beat NE in the AFCCG.

I still think we matchup well with any of these opponents. We can beat SD or Jax, and we can beat NE.

Any given Sunday always applies, but at least with the Jags, we know what we're facing. Jax may have owned the Steelers tonight, but keep in mind, the Steelers were already on the downswing having lost Willie Parker, and having Troy Polamalu at less than 100%.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 6, 2008 1:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Honestly

Why would we not want to see Jacksonville in our dome after we knock off San Diego?

Peyton torches their secondary. Throwing the ball would be all to easy for us.
Our run defense isn't terrible, and they can't throw the ball consistently. (Yes Gerrard threw 3 picks all year, but he throws the ball like 25 times a game and only gets 7 yards per pass. And Pittsburgh picked him off 2 times.)
San Diego at the dome with our WRs back has a much better sound then @SD with 1 competent receiver. And maybe with the week off we'll be able to teach special teams to our guys. You know, tell them they can tackle the guy before the 40 yard line.

I just don't want to see New England. I am not scared of them, I just would like to see them gone. And I am scared of them... :)

Colts fan in Chicagoland. Go Colts!

by Kyle321N on Jan 6, 2008 3:39 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The crest of the wave

Interest in the Jags as a force in the playoffs ought to be waning now. I had high hopes that they could upset NE, but I believe their high-water mark has been reached by beating Pittsburgh. Their secondary picked Roethlisberger off twice, but the fault was more on him than DBs making plays. In the second half, when the Steelers began going almost exclusively to Ward and Miller, the Jags didn't have an answer. If Brady looks to Welker and Coates he should have similar success, and a Jags adjustment to stop those short throws makes it only a matter of time before Moss gets free. Plus, if Henderson is hobbled, the Jags' run defense will suffer. The Pats can run some, they just choose not to. Faulk especially might be more effective on the draw with Henderson out or at partial speed.

The Jags will undoubtedly hit the Pats, because it's what they do. I anticpate a tough game, but give the Pats credit: they didn't go unbeaten in the regular season by being weak physically or weak-willed. After watching the Jags and Steelers, I'm more convinced than before that the Colts will be traveling to Foxborough.

The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in the stars, but in ourselves.

by Coltsfan58 on Jan 6, 2008 8:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

My mistake

I believe I typed in Coates when the present NE tight end first named Benjamin is Watson. Sorry.

The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in the stars, but in ourselves.

by Coltsfan58 on Jan 6, 2008 8:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

off topic

Why do I get the feeling, from watching the game last night, that Hines Ward is a tool?

Every time he made a catch, he was instantly up and in the face of the defender. I don't know if they were saying mean things about his mother or something, but every stinking time, there he is, in their face.

Anybody know, is he a really nice guy, and if so, why was he going all Wes Welker (of "You F@#$ing Suck!" fame) all night?

Check it to pancakes! Pancakes!

by Picky on Jan 6, 2008 9:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Aww, c'mon ...

The jags laid plenty of dirty hits on Ward. They hit him out of bounds on his first reception, with no flag, they horse collared him once, again, no call.

I'd expect him to be "up in their faces" after that.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 6, 2008 4:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

well...

I didn't know. I didn't see any overtly dirty hits, and it was all game. Not being a Steelers fan, I don't know much about him. I was just asking :-p

Check it to pancakes! Pancakes!

by Picky on Jan 6, 2008 5:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I haven't seen...

...Stallworth in a while which leads me to believe 1 of 2 things: he's been riding the bench due to lack of productivity OR he's being saved/rested. Personally, I think he's better suited for the type of smashmouth football NE may see with the Jags. While Welker is our best chain mover, he's more of a finesse guy; Stallworth is like a running back after he catches the ball and may be able to handle a hard-hitting game a little better.

by MaPatsFan on Jan 6, 2008 9:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

"Best case" scenarios

There are no "best case" scenarios in the AFC. I do not subscribe to the retarded notion that San Diego was "a tough match-up" for Indy last season in the playoffs. Last season, the Chargers were an undisciplined, reckless football team, and I knew NE would beat them because NE was better.

This season, regardless of who Indy plays in the second round, the team will be very, very tough. The Colts also have a mental obstacle they need to overcome: They have never won a playoff game after a bye week. Never. In 1999 they lost to Tennessee and in 2005 they lost to Pittsburgh. Last year, starting the playoffs in the Wildcard really helped them. I knew after that KC game nobody could stop the Colts.

This time around, the challenge is knocking off a club that will likely come in brimming with confidence, and no matter who it is the game will likely be very tough, physical, and close... until Indy beats them, of course.

Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jan 6, 2008 11:13 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

In addition

The opponent for NE will be tough, and might knock them out regardless of whether its Jacksonville or Tennessee.

Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jan 6, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A few points ...

We will not lose our first playoff game this year, Jax or SD.
Jax has a shot at NE, but Ten does not.
Odds on NE/IND - 40-60 in my book. In 10 games, we would beat them 6 times. NE has a "finesse" offense that can be given fits with a good pass rush.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 6, 2008 4:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

40-60 odds

Do the Colts beat the Patriots six out of ten times with the games split between RCA & Gillette?? If so, Indy has already bucked your odds by losing at home earlier this season. What criteria did you base your odds on?

New England has won two of the three playoffs games these teams have contested in the Brady/Manning era. Both teams held serve (two games at Foxboro, the other at Indy). Why, with the new improved Patriots offense, would the Colts turn those odds around?

Secondly, I don't see a good pass rush bothering Brady that much. In fact, it has been the common defensive tactic of the last four out of five teams that have tried to beat New England. The Giants have the top ranked pass rushing defense in the league and they lost at home. You need more than a good pass rush to best the Patriots. New England isn't simply a finesse team, they are smart, well coached, and tough enough. Most of all, they have the leadership & will to win of Tom Brady.

The Patriots will beat the Jaguars and I'm quite sure the Colts will beat the Chargers. We all should hope for the same because there's nothing better than a Patriots vs Colts playoff game !!

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 7, 2008 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed...

All those are great points on paper but how much will the "will to win" count when you are physically abused by the Jags?
They are the "X" factor as NE has never played them this season.
Physical teams have always created problems for NE this season and it took a lot of resolve for them to overcome them i.e. squeaking out wins.
We shall see how it unfolds.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 7, 2008 3:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How it unfolds

I actually don't see the Pats vs Jags game as a being a close game. New England will come out in the no-huddle mode, in the shotgun, with four wide and run that Jacksonville D ragged. By the second half they'll be completely out of gas.

The Patriots will put up 31 or so and I strongly doubt that the Jags can generate that much offense, even if they run the heck out of the football.

Whatever... it's the Colts vs Patriots that I want to see.

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 7, 2008 5:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You forget ...

how old and tired your defense is.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 8, 2008 12:29 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

We all saw...

How the NYG safety laid such a hit on Moss and he was dazed for a second there?
What makes you think it's going to be any different in the Jags game?
31 points can still be scored on the ground if they can have their way with the LBs, which I think they will.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 8, 2008 1:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

More than Moss

If Moss is the key to the Patriots winning ways, how did the Patriots (who played without Randy Moss & Wes Welker & Dante Stallworth) damn near win the ACFCG at the RCA Dome last year??

Moss has been well defended (and hit & harassed) all season. I expect that to continue for the next three games, he's a big boy, he can hack it.

You're right - the Giants played a very good football game at home against the Patriots... and lost.

The Jaguars are a good football team. They may hang in there for the first half but, we know that the Steelers just put up 29 on the Jags defense and I consider the Pats offense to be superior to the Steelers offense. So, 31 is actually the minimum I expect New England to score. There is no way on earth that Jacksonville will out-score the Patriots.

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 8, 2008 1:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In your own words...

They damn near won...but they lost and that is the bottomline.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 8, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed

The Patriots lost and that is the bottom line.

But, that was last year. This season there is a new edition of the New England Patriots and the new edition is very difficult to beat.. on the road or at home.

The Patriots may lose Saturday night and the Colts may lose on Sunday afternoon but, we both know that these are unlikely scenarios. We both agree that New England and Indianapolis should (they really should) meet in the AFCCG. The earlier matchup between these two teams (Colts fourth quarter melt-down) was entertaining as hell and I expect the Championship game to be even better.

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 8, 2008 2:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think...

Your choice of words (Colts fourth q meltdown was enjoyable)is being made on the wrong forum.
Did you mistake this for the Pats Pulpit?
Honest enough mistake.
Yes, I too want to see a NE-Colts AFC showdown. But remember you need to be careful what you wish for especially if you are a NE fan wanting to play the Colts after the Jags.
They don't have enough oxygen tanks for the geezer NE linebackers in Foxboro.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 8, 2008 5:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

think again

I said - the last meeting betweens these two teams was very entertaining, my aside noted that the last meeting happened to include a fourth quarter melt-down by the Colts. Sorry I offended, my bad.

The Patriots will take care of the Jaguars (geezers notwithstanding) and I hope that the Colts can handle the Chargers.

I sure hope that Marvin Harrison will put on the pads this weekend. Tell ya what - the Pats will have enough oxygen for Tedy & Junior and they'll pack extra Ace bandages for your guy, who doesn't semm to want to play anymore. Hey - at least our old guys show up to play.

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 8, 2008 5:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Heck...

Brandon Jacobs steamrolled them, let alone Fred and Maurice.
I think you need to lend the Pats linebackers your CVS or Rite Aid card so that you can get points on their first-aid purchases.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 9, 2008 12:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You can't compare ...

teams from last season, to this season. How'd NO or CHI do this year? Yeah, I thought so. So, no, I haven't been disproven yet.

Secondly, you may need more than a good pass rush to beat the Pats. How about the #1 defense for points allowed. How about Jackson, Hayden, Bethea and Sanders? And BTW, if pass rush and pressure doesn't disrupt Brady, what would you say happened in Baltimore or Philly? hmmmm?

I think the patriots have a 1 in 5 shot at beating the Patriots this weekend. I'm actually rooting for the Jags. I HATE the Patriots and will never root for them. Even if the Devil himself, fielded a team of the damned; I would still want the Patriots defeated.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 8, 2008 12:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would be called

a Patriots intrasquad game.

by ctnyc on Jan 8, 2008 11:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Root for the Jags

Yes, the Ravens and the Eagles played excellent football when they met the Patriots.. and lost. My bet is that coach Belichick has learned a bit from the defensive schemes employed by these teams. You're right, Brady at times does get pressured and Brady does get hit but, Brady wins the game. Brady is much like Manning in that blitzing the guy only plays into his hands.

If I were you, I'd root for the Jaguars to beat the Patriots too. The last team you want between your favorite team and a Super Bowl birth is the New England Patriots. You might have a shot on your home turf, if your team plays a perfect game but, up at Gillette it will be a very daunting task.

Prayer may ward off the Devil but, I believe it will take more than divine intervention to best the Patriots. Nonetheless, you may want to pray for a Jaguars victory on Saturday evening.

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 8, 2008 2:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

IF the Jags win Saturday

and the Colts go on and win the SB what are we going to hear here? Oh if the Patriots had played the Colts there is no chance they would have won that game. According to Pats fans there is no scenario on God's green earth where the Patriots do not have a hand in something. It's always about Patriots to you guys. Sometimes there are other things in this world that have nothing to do with you.

by bleedingblue on Jan 8, 2008 10:09 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jags win...

If the Jaguars win on Sat. night, they'll have beaten a fine football team. If they win, I'll tip my hat to them, they'll have done something that no other team has been able to do this season - defeat the New England Patriots.

If the Colts prevail on Sun. afternoon, they'll get a chance to play for a spot in the Super Bowl. Hey - maybe Indy wins it all. Heck, the Colts may very well be the second best team in the league, sure, they got a good chance.

This year, the Patriots do have a hand in all things - football. Our all-powerful and benevolent God is certainly aware of the unblemished season that has been strung together by the Patriots. I mean, these things don't go unnoticed up there!

by horseofadifferentcolor on Jan 9, 2008 2:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

fair enough

I'm sorry I called you arrogant. :-D

by bleedingblue on Jan 9, 2008 2:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OK..

Gisele, we hear you.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 9, 2008 12:42 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

And,,.

Yeah you were hot in Taxi.

"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi

by rangerover76 on Jan 9, 2008 12:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best Case Scenario

The best case scenario for the Colts is as follows:

San Diego wins, but with injuries. If Jeff Fisher orders another hit on Merriman, I can't say I'd be really depressed we don't get to see him in the playoffs.
Jacksonville goes to New England. Their secondary may suck, but that power running game will wear out the defense and leave them more than a little battered for round 2. Also, they're crazy enough to start taking cheap shots if the game is completely out of hand. I can see Del Rio giving Stroud or Henderson the "Sweep the leg" order.

Worst case scenario:

Tennessee wins. They'll have to invent new words for how lopsided that game will be.
Jax comes to Indy. They know us. They're crazy. They don't like us. Not a good combination.

"Hey, if you want me to come here, I want to come here. But if you don't, I'm going to beat your butt for 15 years playing in the AFC." -Peyton Manning-

by MonkeyBusiness on Jan 6, 2008 1:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I agree ...

I think tempting fate a third time with Jax might be one too many for the football gods.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 6, 2008 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It's the playoffs

So, we'll have to be on top of our game to win against anyone. So, nothing's guaranteed. But, this year, I feel like our odds are better than ever before. This might well be the best Colts team that's ever been fielded. So, I don't think we need to be scared of anyone. Respect where respect is due, of course.

by Masson on Jan 6, 2008 6:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe not the best ...

but the toughest. I still think that 2004 team was probably the best we've fielded. That Steelers game was just bad luck.

As much as a good team makes a huge difference, we all have to admit that luck plays a role. Heck, the Ravens had the Pats beat. The whole undefeated season comes down to a crappy timeout call by their Defensive Coordinator.

by PaytonMenning on Jan 7, 2008 12:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs