What is in a 1-2 Record?

by mgrex03 on Oct 1, 2008 12:04 AM EDT in Analysis

The Colts' bye week has now come and gone, and hopefully Coach Dungy, along with Tom Moore, Ron Meeks, and the rest of coaches have figured out what has gone wrong, and have made the necessary changes to make the 2008 Colts look like the 2003-2007 Colts. I heard an interview with Peyton last week, and he said they were working a lot on fundamentals, and not really taking the week off. He said they knew they had a lot to do, in all phases of the game.

It's been mentioned here a couple times (BBS here for example) of other teams that have started 1-2 and made the playoffs. One need not look very far in the past to see this, as the Giants started 1-2 last season, and their season turned out ok. I decided to make up a list of teams that finished 1-2 or 0-3 to start a season since 2002, since that is when the Texans started, and we've had the current playoff format. Pre-2002, I believe it was easier to make the playoffs for a couple reasons:

Less Teams
More Wild Card spots

I found it a little strange that in every year, exactly 16 teams were 1-2 or worse. I can't explain it. But here goes, the list of teams who have made the playoffs the past 6 years after starting 1-2 or worse:

Year	Team	Record	Bye Week	Seed	Lost in?
2002	Falcons	9-6-1	4	6	Divisional
2002	Titans	11-5	7	2	Conference
2002	Jets	9-7	6	4	Divisional
2002	Steelers	10-5-1	3	3	Divisional
2003	Packers	10-6	8	3	Divisional
2003	Rams	12-4	5	2	Divisional
2003	Eagles	12-4	3	1	Conference
2004	Packers	10-6	9	3	Wild Card
2004	Chargers	12-4	10	4	Wild Card
2004	Rams	8-8	8	5	Divisional
2005	Panthers	11-5	7	5	Conference
2005	Bears	11-5	4	2	Divisional
2006	Chiefs	9-7	3	6	Wild Card
2007	Giants	10-6	9	5	Won SB
2007	Chargers	11-5	7	3	Conference

A couple things jumped out at me from this:

All of these teams started 1-2, which means since 2002, no team has started 0-3 and made the playoffs. It was asked here what is the big difference between 1-2 and 0-3? It's been since 1998 since a team started 0-3 and made the playoffs (Buffalo). I'd say that is a big difference.
Check out 2003. The top 3 seeds in the NFC all started 1-2 that year, including two teams who finished 12-4. There is still hope.
Ten of the 15 teams in this group won at least 1 playoff game. However, the Giants were the only ones to reach the Super Bowl in this stretch.
Taking this list as a percentage, we have 6 years x 16 teams with 1-2 or worse = 96 total teams. 15 / 96 ≈ 16%. The odds aren't great, but is definitely possible. Each year there has been at least 1 team to accomplish this.

These next two weeks are critical games that are must wins. I think the Colts will respond and be 3-2 before heading to Lambeau.

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Interesting

I would like to know when each of these teams had their bye weeks since bye weeks are used to make alot of adjustments.

by skywalker on Oct 1, 2008 1:21 AM EDT 0 recs

Updated to show Bye Weeks

by mgrex03 on Oct 1, 2008 10:46 AM EDT up 0 recs

I'm not saying it will happen, but

how many teams made it after starting the season 1-3? Even if the Colts were to lose this week (which they won’t) they still have a great shot given the talent, and the schedule which includes the both AFC/NFC north divisions.

by JagsCub on Oct 1, 2008 6:18 AM EDT 0 recs

Seven of the 15 Teams started 1-3 or 1-4

02 Falcons: 1-3
02 Titans: 1-4
02 Jets: 1-4
02 Steelers: 1-3
04 Packers: 1-4
05 Bears: 1-3
07 Chargers: 1-3

by mgrex03 on Oct 1, 2008 10:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

Keeping the faith

We have such a talented group that is hard to watch the games and see the miscues. I have a ton of faith on this team, coach Dungy, Polian, and all the organization, which has been class act for years.

I think, in my humble opinion, that Peyton is just trying too hard, thinking too much. He seems to change almost every play at the line, sometimes I find myself thinking, “just snap the ball and play the game”, but its more complicated than that, and having not played football in my life, but Madden in PS3, I might be wrong. That is what makes him great, reading cover, seeing pressure, and all. But I don’t think he is having fun right now, and that goes a long way. Loosing ain’t fun, I know that. Peyton, like a proffessional he is, will be just fine, I’m sure.

And although I may sound that I’m putting it all on Peyton, I’m not. I’m aware of the injuries, the mistackles in defense and the rookies in the OL. Just little things, fix those, and with this talent we’ll be at the playoffs again.

Any way this is my first post at StampedBlue, although I read everyday. I’m a Colt Fan in the Caribbean, Puerto Rico, but I watch all the games. (Direct TV). I lived about 5 years in Indy, made many friends, and became a fan. My 1 year old son has a Manning #18, baby jersey. My wife has become a football fan too. So all the way from Caguas, Puerto Rico.

GO COLTS……

by CaribbeanColt on Oct 1, 2008 9:30 AM EDT 0 recs

Welcome!

by coltsfanawalt on Oct 1, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up 0 recs

Although i’m all for the stats,i really don’t think they apply here.Just because the stats say that it is possible for teams which start 1-2 to go to the playoffs,or even win the SB,it doesn’t mean that the Colts will too.I know you’re not trying to imply that too,but all i’m trying to say is that the ONLY thing that can get the Colts to the playoffs is winning games,and winning them the right way.If they don’t do that then there’s no stats or records to get them there…

I really hope the offense and the defense gets their shit together.But most of all i’d really like the Colts to run the damn football more,what with the talent we have at the RB position.I mean we drafted Dom and Mike Hart for this reason,not for them to be sitting on the bench.

by Sahil on Oct 1, 2008 10:13 AM EDT 0 recs