Hello Stampede Blue,

We've been bouncing around the SBNation this year, but have avoided posting on here because, well, we haven't always had nice things to say about Indy's play. However, this Sunday's matchup brings a slightly different tune:

BAL @ IND

Our line: Indianapolis by 5

We have been pretty harsh on Indianapolis in most of our reviews so far this year, but as our system was designed for, it doesn't buy into hype and personal opinion, even our own. After a close look at the numbers, we can't really argue with what our system is presenting either. Baltimore will have success running the football as they have all season, and will probably be able to march off several drives over 50 yards. The problem arises when they get near the red zone. Baltimore has had problems converting those drives into points because they have been too one-dimensional on offense. The passing game just has not gotten the job done, and the Indianapolis secondary has been the only bright spot during their dismal defensive start to the season. If you can remember the IND @ MIN game in week 2, field goals were not good enough to outscore the Indy offense, and we don't think they will be good enough to defeat Indianapolis at home. Even if Addai continues to struggle, and it is very likely he will against the Baltimore defense, look for Manning to find some way to put enough points on the board and get his team its first home win of the season.

ITN rankings:

- Indianapolis #20

- Baltimore #23