DVOA on the Colts (week 8)
7 games in lets see what Football Outsiders DVOA thinks of the Colts.
In total DVOA the Colts are ranked 15th in the league and 6th in the AFC. By DVOA's assessment playing the way they have over the last 7 games the Colts are a wildcard team.
The Colts offense comes in at 11th overall, the D at 16th and in a bit of familiarity the Colts special teams drags them down with it's 24th ranking.
A lack of consistency has been points out many times as a problem for the Colts and DVOA also sees this, ranking the Colts as the 4th most inconsistent team in the league.
Estimated wins uses consistency and certain DVOA splits to project a teams wins. A team with the Colts performance over 7 games would have been expected to win 4.7 of those. A -1.7 win difference between expected and actual wins ties for the second biggest drop. We aren't just making excuses the Colts really have been unlucky and they definitely shouldn't "be 1-6"
The Colts are estimated at 8.5 wins for the season and are given a just under 40% chance of making the playoffs.
Why are the Colts so highly rated when a large portion of fans are writting the season off and only the most koolaid drunk fans are without major concerns? Strength of schedule. The Colts past schedule is ranked the 3rd hardest in the league. Their future schedule? 28th.
Counterintuitively the Colts rushing offense is ranked higher than the passing O. 11th to 14th. The OL is ranked 5th in pass protection and below average across the board in run blocking. Show Addai and Dom some love guys.
The run-pass ratings on D is what you would expect. Pass D ranked 13th, Run D at 21st. The Colts DL is ranked between 17th and 26th, pass rush and every run D category
On to the special teams. The ST unit has struggled just like we're used to, but the how is very different this year. The Colts FG/XPs and Kickoff Returns combine for nearly 10 points below average. The Colts slightly below average punt return unit and slightly above average kickoff team pretty much cancel each other out. The surprise of the week is the punt team. The following are words none of us would have ever thought we would hear, The Colts Punt Team is the best in the league. The Colts punt team has netted the team over a TDs worth of field position so far this year.
Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats' effeciency ratings tell a similar story about the Colts. 18th overall, 6th in the AFC, 13th in offense, 14th in defense.
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Shake its good to talk numbers and show stats,but what I’m interested in is how the Colts play on the field.And never in the game did they look like having the ability to drive down the field.Both the TD’s were very good,admitted.But what happened after that?And the play calling has been so bad this time,i dunno if Peyton’s choosing those bad plays or Tom Moore’s giving him the bad plays but still,the play calling has sucked.Except for the 2nd TD for Clark when it was absolutely what we’ve come to expect from Manning,picking up the blitz and burning the D for a TD.
Nowhere during the game did our secondary look like even creating some pressure on the receivers.Our WR’s could hardly ever get free,and the Titans receivers had all the time to get in position,either down the field or for short yardage passing.
Without a sustained running game,even though we’re doing it pretty well(kudos to Dom and Chad Simpson who looked good last game),we just don’t seem to keep going to the run game EVEN though its working.I don’t remember how many times we tried to pass on a 3rd and short situation,but it was frustrating to see peyton not hooking up with the receivers to get those yards,instead of just running the damn ball.
I know there are positives too,like the run D is getting better.But then just HOW many times did we see the Titans pass on a 3rd down and easily get a first down?The ST is looking much better than last year,but we still don’t have that “spark” to return a kick or a punt for a TD.A 20/30 yd return is what we expect everytime.The running game’s looking good too,and the o-line.But what good does it do if we can’t get those key 3rd down conversions?
I have great faith in this Colts team,the talent is undeniable.But they DO NOT look like a team which can go on a 5-6 game winning streak now.I hope i am wrong.I so badly hope i’m wrong,because i don’t think i can watch another game like this.
the numbers don't have a rosy projection for the Colts
it says in the post that they put the Colts chances at a playoff spot a bit better than 1 in 3. The Colts will have to improve. I don’t think anyone can doubt that will happen with Sanders, Hayden and Addai returning, but the question is will it be enough and will they be in too deep of a hole when they do start playing like we expect?
Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA
by shake n bake on Oct 29, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up reply actions
yay, eat, sleep, drink DVOA
The Colts defense is no longer the problem. It hasn’t been since the houston game. It’s enjoyable to listen to announcers, experts, and fans rail, cry, poopoo, moan, etc… about the defense. The defense. is. not. the. prob. lem. I don’t need DVOA, efficiency ratings, or pronouncements from God to know this – i have 2 eyeballs and a brain. Special teams is not the problem. The only part of this team not living up to its end of the bargain is the offense. This isn’t even a post stating ‘The defense only makes 2% of the payroll, so they should do 2% of the work’. I’m stating: They held the Packers, Ravens, and Titans to below average rushing totals and yards per attempt. The only thing that was above average for the packers and titans? Attempts. And the only reason the attempts were so high was because the offense never put points on the board.
As for Sanders, Hayden and Addai being a spark? Why? The ONLY one of those 3 that would greatly outperform the person that has replaced them is Hayden. Hayden over Jennings will be a monumental upgrade, assuming that Hayden is completely healthy. Bullitt has played a better overall game than Sanders. No, he’s not as good against the run as Sanders, no he doesn’t make the big hit like sanders, and no, he might not be the ‘blah blah blah emotional leader’ like sanders, but he can cover better and he is rarely out of position.
As for Addai, I said this 3 weeks ago and the thought police were all up in arms: Dominic Rhodes is doing a better job than Addai could do. Addai’s season before his ‘major’ injury could be summed up in 3 letters: D D R. (If you don’t know what that means, look it up).
I’m sure that Addai is the more talented back, but here’s the thing: Dominic Rhodes gets the ball, goes in a straight line, falls down, gets 4.1 yards per carry. He doesn’t do a little dance. He doesn’t make a little love. He doesn’t get down tonight. He just consistently moves his feet and goes north and south.
The one person that we NEED back, that will apparently not be back, is Lilja. Pollack is inconsistent, when he’s good, he’s good, but when he’s bad, its scary. The offensive line isn’t good enough at holding blocks to run the stretch. And I don’t know what the hell Tony Ugoh was doing the other night, but he just kinda stood there blocking Rhodes.
So yea, again, in my comeback performace of the year, I’m once again stating the obvious: A reliance on a system that constantly thinks that the Eagles are the greatest team on the planet year in and year out to make decisions for your mind is really bad judgement. Use your brain, watch the games.
Yes the 2007 defensive player of the year wouldn't be an upgrade
from a guy who was signed as an undrafted free agent last year and WAS SANDERS’ BACKUP. He’s played great, Phil B said the other day that they are probably going to actually start rotating him in a safety sometimes to give Sanders and Bethea blows, and he’ll play as the dimeback. He’s another great find by Polian, but he’s not even close to Bob’s level. Sanders isn’t just a phenominal run stopper. He is great in coverage. He covers massive amounts of ground, makes good jumps on passes and closes very fast after receptions. Even without their best pass rusher for half the season no one could go deep on the Colts, because Sanders can cover a deep half while still being ready to blow up run plays.
Did I wait until I had DVOA numbers to give my opinion on the team? No. I form my own thoughts and when FO’s stuff comes out I add that to the information I’m drawing from.
Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA
by shake n bake on Oct 29, 2008 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
LOL
Funny rant.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Oct 29, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Goodness, people.
Why do some have to go postal on Shake giving us another perspective? At least he is doing his homework and spending time bringing us material to consider as we mope through the week.
Is this how some cope with disappointment? By biting each others’ heads off? This is a good read, and when someone takes the time to make us aware of it, one approach is to say thanks. Don’t attack the journalist for delivering the news. Just go get more drunk, and maybe by the time you sober up the Colts will be winning again. Then we’ll have better things to do than spew venom on FO or anyone that talks football stats and breakdown.
Thanks.
The bickering around here is becoming annoying.
Shake does a great job. I’m not a stats person, so I have difficulty following them, but they obviously DO take time. They are well thought-out and very well written. And I think he deserves a little appreciation.
"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007
by peytonsthebest on Oct 30, 2008 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Lucky Punt
It doesn’t surprise me that the punt team is doing well, every time I see us punt we’ve got 3 or 4 guys swarming and it’s always, always, always in the 20 – usually inside the 10.
What’s, dare I ask, our field goal unit doing compared to the league? Because there’s a lot of talk about that Vinatieri’s leg is gone.
Solidly below average
which is strange since Vinny has been much better with kickoff power, but his still struggling with FGs.
Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA
by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions

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