Dom is not better than Addai, has not been better than Addai and will not be better than Addai

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2008 3:37 PM EDT Comment 12 comments

Dominic Rhodes has run pretty well while Addai was out for the last three weeks. First off all that's great. A tandem of Dom and Addai powered the Colts running game to a superbowl. The last three weeks showed that none of the Raiders suckitude rubbed off on Dom, and he can still be a useful back.

Dom's success has given some Colts fans frustrated with the offense the idea the Addai was part of the problem, and that the Colts are better off with Dom. The most commonly cited support is that Dom has averaged 3.6 yards per carry to Addai's 3.5 and that Dom has outsushed Addai despite being the featured back for one less game. The problem with these reasons are the flaws of YPC, running behind different O lines and the effect of running fresh.

We'll start with YPC, yards per carry is the stat for quickly determing RB effectiveness. The key word there is quickly. YPC gives a quick look at a how well a guy is running, but when is the fast way ever perfect? Yards per carry has two big flaws. It overvalues backs that "boom and bust", guys that break off the highlight reel runs, but more often than not are stopped for little gain. Boom and bust backs are inferior to consistant runners because they kill drives. Normally I would make up an extreme example to show this, but here are actual run lengths from Rhodes.

Dom vs Titans 1, 2, 1, 3, 5, -5, 8, 7, 10, 3, -5, 23, 9, 4, -1, 1, 6, 1

He gained 3 or less yards on 10 of his 17 runs. That puts an offense into long down and distance situations. Here are the down and distances after each of Doms runs

2nd-9, 2nd-8, 2nd-9, 3rd and 7 (Manning picked forcing a pass to Wayne beyond the marker), 2nd-5, 2nd-15, 2nd-2, 1st-10, 1st-10, 3rd-15, 1st-10, 3rd-1, 3rd-8, turnover on downs, 3rd-9, 2nd-4, 1st-goal, 2nd-goal

Dom's busts left the Colts offense in a bunch of difficult situations. 2nd-longs and especially 3rd and longs kill drives.

The other problem with yards per carry is that not all yards are created equal. Would you rather have a yard a 4th and inches or 10 yards on 3rd and 15? Yards per carry says the second option isn't just better, it's 10 times better. Edge James averaged 4.2 a carry for the Colts, he fininished in the top 10 in YPC just once in 7 seasons in Indy. does that mean he wasn't an elite back? NO, because when Edge James averaged 4 yards a carry it was "4 yards every carry"

This is where I love FO's success rate. It's the anti-YPC. It doesn't care about anything other than helping to move the chains. It's based on gaining a large enough percent of the yards to go for a new set of downs, so as to put the offense in a good situation. Here are the requirements for a "success"

In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.

If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.

If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

Edgerrin James was a success rate all-star for his time with the Colts, because he moved the chains with 4-6 yard run after 4-6 yard run. When he left Addai took up that mantle and finished a dominant 1st in success rate (the gap between him and second was as big as the gap between 2nd and 8th) in 2006 and 6th in 2007.

This year Addai is currently 10th in success rate. Dom? a full 10% lower for a rank of 28th. Addai's running has been especially unsexy this year with a long of 15 yards, but he's still been turning out productive run after productive run.

The other factor throwing off yards per attempt is the four games where Dom came in off the bench with fresh legs. He averaged 4.4 per carry off the bench. In the games where he was the featured back he had the same YPC as Addai, 3.48.

So we've seen why the YPC doesn't tell the story of Dom vs Addai, their production actually hasn't been that similar. Now we'll see not only has Addai outperformed Dom, he did it under harder circumstances.

Both backs have faced an above average schedule of run Ds. DVOA says Doms schedule was a bit harder, yards per game allowed says Addai's schedule by a little. The big difference wasn't who they were running against, it was who they were running behind. All three of Dom's games he had Jeff Saturday (who came back very early from a knee injury). Addai got two games without Saturday and two with him fresh back while he was still recovering. Addai got only one game running behind starting guard and 2nd round pick Mike Pollak, to Dom's 3. Addai ran against two top run D's behind 3 first time starters on the interior. Dom got the benefit of having two of the interior starters back for all three of his games.

Addai was as good as Dom or better while running against these guys...

via i.cdn.turner.com

Without this guy...

via images1.wikia.nocookie.net

Addai is clearly the better back. Dom has definately earned himself some carries, especially since Addai struggles to stay healthy, but a running game based around Dom is going to cause an offense to sputter and stall.

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Great write up shake

I really think the running game will break out if the line we had starting for Tenn is intact and we rotate Addai and Rhodes.

by metal_militia on Oct 30, 2008 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I have a mancrush on Jeff Saturday.

Don’t tell Koppen (who I’m hopeful will become him one day).

As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead

by JohnHannahRules on Oct 30, 2008 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Saturday rocks.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Oct 30, 2008 4:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Awesome

I opened this link expecting something that you came up with on your own… but you didn’t disappoint. Ole Standby DVOA was there for ya. Are you able, at all, to form an opinion for yourself? Can you take in oxygen without the assistance of DVOA? I hope so, but honestly, I doubt it.

First, let’s put this out there: It took Dom 3 games (two of which ended up being losses, so its not like they were running out the clock) to get the same number of carries Addai got in 4 (and Rhodes wasn’t eating into Addai’s carries in those 4, you can look it up, he had like 2 carries per game). So I think we can all agree that Rhodes can actually get into double digit touches without getting a booboo. And yes, that actually matters when you’re saying ‘someone isn’t, hasnt been and never will be’ a better player. See, I could be the greatest football player to ever live, but if i can only step on the field for 2 seconds without breaking xxxxx, I can’t do much. I understand that there isnt a DVOA stat for this, so that concept is probably confusing.

Second, Rhodes has faced the #1, #10, and #25 rush defenses, and only in the TEN game (#10) did he have the full offensive line. Addai had Saturday back for JAC and had everyone but Ugoh back for HOU. With the same lines, Addai put up 33 carries for 149 yards against the #17 and the #21 rush defense (jac and hou), Rhodes put up 216 yards on 62 carries against the #1, #25, #10 rush defenses, but against the #10 rush defense (TEN), he was able to put up better than 4 yards per carry.

Now, you’ll bring up success rate. But you forget to mention that while having almost the same number of carries this year, FO/DVOA doesn’t list Addai’s success rate this year. You sort of just mention how addai was good in 2006, and good, but not as good, in 2007. And then you mention James, which is really, totally relevant to this discussion. Because he’s walking through that door.

Second, you forgot to mention receiving! I mean, I looked at the page, and its listed right there. Addai and Rhodes have the same Catch % (63), with Rhodes having, ya know, 4 times the targets (30 to 8). Rhodes DVOA on catches is -34.0% which is bad. Until you compare him to… tada, Joseph Addai: -40.5%.

How is it you write for this website? You bring no opinions of your own – your whole schtick is basically ‘DUDE, DVOA 4 LIFE’. And then, when DVOA doesn’t exactly meant your way of thinking you either 1) whine about it (see: Defense, Colts, preseason) or 2) totally ignore it (see: RB receiving). As a matter of fact, the ONLY thing DVOA shows is that neither one of them has been very good.

0% of your statement is correct, but if you had changed has to had, then it would get a 33% success rate. (Rhodes had not been better than Addai). At this point in time Rhodes is better than Addai for this offense. And Rhodes will continue to be better for this offense as long as 1) Addai is trying to be Fred Astaire 2) the colts offensive line can’t block on the stretch play (Rhodes is clearly the better ‘up the gut’ runner, and the Colts offensive line is clearly better at ‘blocking man on man’ right now) 3) Addai can’t stay on the field for more than 3 plays at a time.

And if you’re going to say something like ‘wah wah why are you picking on me wah wah DVOA wah wah’, I’ll stop pointing out your obvious errors when you can grow a pair and think for yourself.

by Nideak on Oct 30, 2008 7:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oopps

There is a meant in there, its supposed to be ‘mesh with’, but I got distracted mid-sentence:)

by Nideak on Oct 30, 2008 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok lets ignore that I didn't even mention FO or DVOA until halfway through

I ignored RB receiving because 8 passes is a ridiculously small sample size.

I got Addai’s success rate, through my Google powers. <a href=“http://74.125.95.104/search?q=cache:a8iwNcKmGPgJ:www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb+”http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb" target="_blank">www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1&gl=us" target="new">Link. a cache version of the RB stats page before they upped the carries requirement to be in the top table with success rate listed. Since Addai hasn’t had any carries since then, his success rate is the same. I took that success rate and looked at where it would place right now (not a big stretch to put him up there since he’s two carries short of the cutoff).

Addai missed one game out of 32 before this season. He gets dinged up, but he’s usually right back.

The James mention is to further explain success rate to give everyone a better understanding of how it works and why it’s a good measure of RBs. The point was to show why I’m not and everyone else doesn’t need to just look at the success rate number and assume it means something good. Saying I use FO stats too much does nothing to counter their value. You made no argument to refute that Addai is better at moving the chains and putting the O in good situations.

They had the same lines (and Addai had 4.5 yards per carry behind that line) but Saturday was 4 and 6 weeks removed from a 6-8 week injury. Dom got him on weeks 7,8,9 when he was healthy.

Behind the same line Addai ran for 4.5 a carry behind against a worse run D (GB #25) than either of Addai’s games, Dom averaged 3.7 a carry. That’s as close to apples to apples has you get and Addai beat Dom badly there.

I profusely apologize for using other sources of information to back my opinion instead of just saying what I think whether it matches what is happening or not.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2008 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

apparently I can't link directly to the cache page

adding a screen shot of it to the post

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2008 8:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Awesome article, shake n bake

I agree 100%. It’s nice to read that someone else sees this as I do, and it’s awesome that some official stat and performance sources support our view. I imagine that the only reason someone would have a problem with your sources is because those sources don’t support that person’s opinions. Who cares? It’s good perspective.

I love FO. It is over my head sometimes, just because I can get too lazy to think hard enough to understand every formula. But I love their articles. The Zombie Brothers got me into them originally.

Again, great article here. This is what I want to see when I come to this site. I feel informed and educated often when I visit. Props to BBS for promoting you as a contributor.

by coltsfanawalt on Oct 30, 2008 10:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

thanks

Nideak’s comments have kind of puzzled me. I think he’s just jealous of what me and FO have together.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Oct 30, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just be careful.

Jealousy is flattering, but triangles just never work out that well.

by coltsfanawalt on Oct 30, 2008 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Consistency!

Phenomenal piece Shake. There’s a reason runners like Payton and Emmitt Smith had generally successful teams and Barry Sanders did not—I loved to watch him, but runs of -3, 13, -1,9,7,2,7 left his offense in a deep hole as often as he moved the sticks.

We’ve seen our RBs getting hit in the backfield enough this year to know that any success/failure is not all on them anyway.(never is, really).

As I noted on 18to88, in Dom’s rookie year Edge had 662 yards in 6 starts (4-2 record IIRC) and Dom had 1,104 in 10 starts (2-8 record IIRC)—darn good “raw” rushing numbers, but the O still sucked when it counted. Dom’s first big run was about 80 yards for a TD and was probably followed by a dozen 2 yarders.

I am very happy to have Dom back, and if you look at his 2006 success rate, it was pretty good IIRC. With out QB, receivers, and (usually) the quality of our OL, Dom is a suitable back who can do most of what we need well enough. But I bet Manning would concur that an Edge-like or a Jaddai-like success rate is preferable.

Bobman

by Bobman on Oct 31, 2008 1:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

being a boom or bust runner doesn't disqualify you from being good

it just makes your raw numbers look better than they are. Both Sanders and Adrian Peterson now are boom and bust runners, but they had such frequent booms that they are still elite backs. From the one year FO has data on Sanders he ranked 32nd in success rate, but 7th in total value.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.5 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Oct 31, 2008 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs