How unlikely was the Colt comeback?

by shake n bake on Oct 5, 2008 6:00 PM EDT

Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats.com is working on a system of predicting win probablities in real time as games progress. Here's his explanation of the current beta,

The probabilities are based on over 2000 games from the past 8 regular seasons. Last week, the model was fairly basic and simply considered score, time, and possession. This week modifications for field position and seconds are included. You can think of each probability as "if the team with the ball had a first down at their current field position, this would be their chance of winning."

The Colts win probability before the Rosenfels fumble was .03, 3%. 3 out a 100 times will a team win in that situation. Amazing.

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Only the Colts

have the moxie to come back like that. They are something special to be sure. And if Dungy made the right calls at the end of the Jax game, they would be 3-1 now. But, there is also serious cause for concern regarding the defense. Someone needs to let them know the game is 60 minutes long. However, a win is a win. Go horse!

by Ayrshire on Oct 5, 2008 6:09 PM EDT reply actions

by Dungy you mean Peyton?

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Oct 5, 2008 6:17 PM EDT up reply actions

No

I mean Dungy Shake! He’s ultimately responsible for what happens out there as head coach. Why do we even have a head coach then….since Peyton seems to be making the calls?…..to whip the defense into shape? Please, overall they still look awful. I would at least expect Dungy to consult with Peyton and confirm that the only way time could be taken off the clock is by running the ball. …and override the decision to throw if necessary. What is Dungy getting paid big bucks for? Jesshhhhhhh! He’s the head coach! Again, we’re talking odds here. But, you’re a good blogger and I do respect your opinion. I just couldn’t disagree more on that issue!

by Ayrshire on Oct 5, 2008 6:34 PM EDT reply actions

What big bucks?

I believe Manning has signed a 100 million dollar contract. I believe Manning was there b4, so was Tom Moore, and if Manning showed up tomorrow and said me or Dungy who do you want. I think we’d know who’d be staying. Dungy does not make the play calls and never will, and no coach of a Peyton Manning led team will. This is Peyton’s offense period. Dungy is responsible as the head coach, and I’m sure he has many convo’s on what is proper play calling for his team, but it’s Mannings decision, he’s the one out there seeing what the D gives us. Shit Manning left 2 minutes on the clock yesterday, but see what happends when the D makes a play when they have to…we actually win the game that’s what happens. So apparently Dungy agreed with what Manning had done against Jacksonville, and thank god he did it again, because we haven’t been able to run the ball well right now. Not for time management not for good yardage, the run game has been shit for us. Take the points, and tell the D to do there job, yesterday they rose to the occasion and it worked out for us this time, not in the Jags game.

by Scooty4422 on Oct 6, 2008 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

but see what happends when the D makes a play when they have to…we actually win the game that’s what happens

Freakin’ A!

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Oct 8, 2008 12:36 PM EDT up reply actions

As for that win...

…how do you spell “whew”?

by LovinBlue on Oct 5, 2008 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

A win they can thank Rosenfels for. The team played poor and they won’t make the playoffs unless they start playing defense for more than 2 drives.

by go colts on Oct 5, 2008 7:27 PM EDT reply actions

Had opportunity

and capitalized on it (them). That is what they are supposed to do.

Don’t celebrate too much, now.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Oct 6, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions

wow on those stats and I made a comment with 4 minutes remaining after we just scored a TD to get us within 10 that we needed a miracle….meaning the d had to score a TD and …wala…a miracle. do I believe in miracles…YES

also dungy didnt lose that jags game..WALT COLEMAN lost that game

by kinnickcolt on Oct 5, 2008 7:29 PM EDT reply actions

I'll take the win

I will take any win at this point…. I just wish this team could get it together for a whole game, not just a few series here or there. Just a few plays earlier in the game and this would have been a whole different game…

Did anyone else notice the texans only had one penalty late in the game when it looked like they had things locked up…. the refereeing in this league is pathetic…

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Oct 5, 2008 7:31 PM EDT reply actions

Refereeing in all sports, in all leagues, everywhere on the planet, is pathetic.

Is it true the NFL doesn’t have professional referees? If so, that’s absolutely ridiculous.

by eltharion_doa on Oct 6, 2008 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

no they only work weekends

Hochuli (who blew that denver/SD call a couple of weeks ago) for example is a lawyer M-F and then comes out on the weekends to referee. Pathetic.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Oct 6, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions

My favorite commercial has it right

90% of all facts can be made to say anything… 50% of the time

by SeattleColt on Oct 6, 2008 3:44 AM EDT reply actions

I should have elaborated

I think that 3% sounds like a nice number pulled out of the air. It seems a bit high to me. That would imply that this happens once every two weeks in the NFL. Did he mean 0.03%?

by SeattleColt on Oct 6, 2008 3:49 AM EDT up reply actions

No, it doesn't

It would only mean that if 16 teams a week were put into that position.

by eltharion_doa on Oct 6, 2008 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Right

1 in 33 times a team has come back from that situation.

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Oct 6, 2008 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions

That still seems high

It had NEVER been done. Wouldn’t you need to see how many times teams have been down 17 with under five minutes to go…and there you have your number?

You would have to think that teams have been down 17 and under 5 minutes HUNDREDS of times in league history. This was the first time a team had come back from that and won in regulation.

Let’s just say that teams have been in that situation 327 times before. 1 in 327, right?

I bet games every now and again. I would have gladly put just about any amount of cash on Houston at 33 to 1. I would have lost and would be ready to fight Sage Rosenfelds.

I know that the math geeks are right, but 33 to 1 seems ridiculously low.

by Disco Stu on Oct 8, 2008 11:20 AM EDT up reply actions