Week 11 Wildcard Positioning Guide

by shake n bake on Nov 10, 2008 1:25 PM EST

With the Colts 4 games back with 7 to play the door to the AFC South title is almost shut. Fortunately, the Colts are now well positioned for a wildcard spot. With both the Jets and Ravens a game up on them and neither on the remaining schedule the Colts need just a touch of outside help, here are the games where they can get it.

Jets@Patriots: both teams are one game up on the Colts and the loser will drop below the Colts on tiebreakers if the Colts win. The difference is the Pats would be behind the Colts on the head-to-head tiebreaker which they are guaranteed to keep, the Jets would be behind on conference record tiebreaker which could, but is unlikely to change (Jets would be 4-4, Colts 5-2 in the AFC). I'd lean Pats just because I think they are the most likely to hold on to the AFC East if the take control of it with the win.

Broncos@Falcons: Normally AFCvNFC is an easy call, but not this one. The Broncos are a game up on the Chargers with the Chiefs and Raiders dead in the water. The Colts play the Chargers but not the Broncos. Which outcome favors the Colts depends on whether the Colts beat the Chargers week 12. If the Colts lose then the Chargers winning the West would help the Colts by keeping a team with the tiebreaker over them out of wildcard competition. If the Colts beat the Chargers then they want the Chargers competing with them for a wildcard because the Colts would have the tiebreaker. I'm not confidant the Broncos can hold off the Chargers, but I have to bank on the scenario where the Colts win. Broncos.

Ravens@Giants: The Colts now have head to head wins over both AFC North contenders, so we can root for both of them to lose. Giants

Raiders@Dolphins: The Raiders are dead and the Dolphins are behind the Colts on tiebreakers. Easy call to root for the upset, Raiders

Titans@Jags: Give up on the AFC South and solidify the WC chances. Or cut down the gap by a game, while reviving a rival who is still on the remaining schedule. 3 games back with 6 to play is still on long shot, so I'm rooting for the Jags to be dead and buried by the time they meet the Colts again week 16. Titans

Chargers@Steelers: another one that depends on how the AFC West breaks, but I think the Steelers will beat out the Ravens so I'll lean Steelers

Browns@ BIlls: Bills are the other team trailing the Colts on tiebreakers, so it's an easy call to root for the currently less dangerous Browns to pick them off.

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Comments

Thanks for the analysis and explanation...

… but do I really have to root for the Pats? Man I can’t stand the thought of it. Sigh.

by LovinBlue on Nov 10, 2008 1:41 PM EST reply actions

On second thought

If I root for the Pats on Thursday night, it’s a win-win-win situation. If they win then your scenario starts to play out, if they lose then I will be happy outright. And rooting for them will bring peace to my mixed family household (husband is a Pats fan).

by LovinBlue on Nov 10, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

boooo

to your husband!!! haha

by zkmavz on Nov 10, 2008 9:08 PM EST up reply actions

I know

Trust me it’s annoying. Football season is bittersweet for me.

by LovinBlue on Nov 11, 2008 1:31 PM EST up reply actions

I'm guessing that

though hilarious and Bernard Pollard jersey wouldn’t go over well as a Christman gift.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
137 yards per game
6.1 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2008 1:39 PM EST up reply actions

heh heh heh

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 1:48 PM EST up reply actions

BWAHAHAHA

I love it. I might put my brother up to that… my husband already doesn’t like him.

by LovinBlue on Nov 11, 2008 2:03 PM EST up reply actions

I'd love to know how that goes over.

Sounds like fun to me!

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 2:39 PM EST up reply actions

I refuse to root for the Patriots or Titans.

The King of Anti-Fail and Unofficial Moderator of Stupid People

by KingRichard on Nov 10, 2008 3:31 PM EST reply actions

I agree about the Pats

But I will root against the Jags before I root against the Titans.

http://naptownsfinest.com

by Colts Homer on Nov 10, 2008 3:55 PM EST up reply actions

I don't want to sound like a homer...

but if the team can continue to build on what they’ve done the past 2 weeks on offense and past 5ish weeks on run-defense, I think there’s still some chance that the Colts can win the division. I know, I know… NIdeak, you’re the weirdo that likes Rhodes! Nideak, you don’t like Dungy! Nideak, you sleep with a teddy bear.

All valid points, but hear me out! The Titans are destined to drop atleast 2, the steelers game and @ the Colts. WIth that in mind, we need help from 2 opponents. Thats it, you say? Well, yes, but I’m only 80% sure. For division titles, I believe tie breakers go head to head, division record, and then conference record? So if we beat them, we’ll be tied head-to-head. That means we’ll need to beat them (which has been destined, as I pointed out earlier) and then either the jags or houston to win. So lets look at the rest of their sched… @ Jax , Jets, @lions, Browns, @houston, steelers, @ colts (must be nice to never have to start a road trip). So as I said, I see the titans going 0-2 their last two games. I could see them losing to the jets (great run defense, good pass defense, enough offense and special teams)… That said, its hard to find the 4th loss, and the 4th loss HAS to come from Jax or HOU (unless we can get their team to implode and go 2-5 over the last 7……. wheres my voodoo doll?) So while its not likely, or possible, I think its definitely possible. 12-4 or 13-3 for the Titans sounds right. I know they won with passing yesterday, but thats not their style, and they’re eventually going to start having the bounces and ridiulcous officiating go against them… right?

by Nideak on Nov 10, 2008 4:23 PM EST reply actions

On top of the four losses…the Colts must win every game from here on out. This whole scenario is just a pipe dream for now, but I will give you the props if the impossible occurs.

by ColtsFanNChiTown on Nov 11, 2008 12:28 AM EST up reply actions

Look at the schedule...

I mean, I know this team hasn’t been consistent or anything, but they did just beat 2 division leaders in a row, the team is getting healthier, and think about how good the defense should be playing once the starters are Ratliff and Hayden! I mean, I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if the colts lost another game before the end of the year, but is there anyone here that really thinks 12-4 is unpossible given the fact that our remaining games are hou, sd, cle, cin, det, jax, tenn (not in order, I dont think)?

by Nideak on Nov 11, 2008 12:58 AM EST up reply actions