How the Colts can win the AFC South

by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2008 12:52 PM EST

It's still possible the the road is unlikely. Here are the scenarios.

Colts win out, Titans lose 5+ of the remaining 7 games
Colts win out, Titans lose to the Jags, Texans, Colts and one other team
Colts win 6 of 7 (including Titans game), Titans lose 6+
Colts win 5 of 7 (including Titans game), Titans lose out

That's it. The Colts can pull even to the Titans in the head to head and divison record tiebreakers, but the 3rd tiebreaker is record vs common opponents. Those common opponenets are the AFC and NFC Norths. The Colts dropped 3 of those games and the Titans have obviously yet to lose one. For that tiebreaker to matter the Titans must lose two in the division, for the Colts to even split that tiebreaker the Titans must lose 3 to the common opponents. That makes 5 losses and we go back to the above scenarios. The Colts can only win the tiebreakers if the Titans lose to the Jags and Texans in addition to losing to the Colts and one other team. Otherwise the Colts have to finish with a better record.

That was kind of depressing, but remember, if the Colts beat the Texans they will be in a wildcard spot (they'll pass the loser of Pats-Jets).

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Yeah I was thinking about the scenarios yesterday night

To win the AFC south. But as you have stated after the win in Pittsburgh, securing a wildcard should be top priority and winning the division second baring some of those scenarios play out.

by metal_militia on Nov 11, 2008 1:18 PM EST reply actions

Wildcard

I seem to remember a team winning the superbowl last year from a wildcard position. anyone??

by skywalker on Nov 11, 2008 1:33 PM EST reply actions

And the year before :)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

Chew On This

Here’s something else to think about. The AFC #1 seed hasn’t won the Super Bowl since the Patriots did it back in 2003. I think we can become the team no one wants to play come January.

by TouchdownMonkey on Nov 11, 2008 1:50 PM EST reply actions

Hmm...

for some reason I thought the 3rd tie breaker was conference record, which is why I still thought it was possible for the Colts to win the division. Now that I know its common opponent, not so much… Oh well, here’s to hoping they lose out:)

by Nideak on Nov 11, 2008 2:23 PM EST reply actions

it's 3rd for ties outside a division

inside a division they go with common opponents (probably because common games makes more sense if you have a decent sized sample, which you get with 8 common games within divisions)

Shonn Greene for Heisman
137 yards per game
6.1 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2008 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

wildcard

It’s probably better to get a wildcard. Every year when our record is great, Dungy rests players and of course, they lose their edge. The year we had to keep playing, guess what? We win it all! I hate resting players. They always come out flat and lose the next game. How many years of that happening does it take for a coach to try something else. I totally respected Coughlin last year when he had the divison locked up and still went full force against the Pats. He lost some players, but kept their edge very sharp. And, the rest is history. I think a wildcard would be the best scenario for the Colts. They don’t seem to do well when they don’t play a meaningful game in several weeks.

by Ayrshire on Nov 11, 2008 3:34 PM EST reply actions

Totally agree!

I have noticed that trend. Another thing we have going for us this year is our record. Imagine if we were 9-0 with the upcoming games we have (easy part of our schedule)…I think we have a better chance now because they can’t sit back and relax. They have to scape out the wins…

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 4:15 PM EST up reply actions