DVOA on the Colts (week 10)

by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2008 5:34 PM EST Comment 11 comments

With a win over the 6th ranked Steelers the Colts have moved up to 11th overall, 10th in weighted DVOA (when early season games are counted less) and 4th in the AFC in both. The Colts success against the #1 D in the league shot their offense up to 6th (4th weighted). The D remains a mediocre 16th. The special teams unit is still bad, but not awful at 24th. The Colts remain one of the 8 most inconsistent teams in the league at 25th in variance.

The offensive jump is almost entirely in the passing game, which is now ranked 6th. The run O remains a slightly above average 13th. Why does DVOA like the Colts run O which ranks dead last in yards per carry and yards per game? It's surprisingly simple actually, the Colts RBs have yet to fumble and have converted 20 of 27 short yardage runs while facing a tough schedule of run Ds (the run game is rated below average without opponent adjustments). They are worst in the league on 1st down, but don't cough up the ball and can move the chains on short yardage.

On defense they hover around average against both the pass and the run. Pass D is ranked 15th and the Run D is 18th.

It's the same new story for the Colts ST unit. Return game and FG/XP bad, kickoff and punt teams good. The Colts have their ST script and are sticking to it. They have the least ST variance in the league.

How big was the Colts win? Last week FO's playoff odds put them at a less than 50-50 shot of making the playoffs. This week? a 24.5% jump to 69.4%. The Colts went from more likely to miss the playoffs to make them to the 4th best bet in the AFC.

The Colts have played the 2nd hardest past schedule in the league by DVOA. They have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule in the league. The Colts offense has faced all 4 of the top defenses (PIT, BAL, TEN, MIN), 4 of the top 5 pass Ds (GB, TEN, PIT, MIN) and the top 3 run Ds (BAL, PIT, CHI)

PS: 7th consecutive post, you think I'm a bit excited after that awesome weekend of football?

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7th consecutive post

Think BBS is still recovering from a hang over? lol

by metal_militia on Nov 11, 2008 5:36 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

he's yet to post his game recap lmao!

by MarkFive05 on Nov 11, 2008 6:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Keep 'em comin' Shake

I’m so excited that I have kept Stampede Blue open on my work laptop all day yesterday and today, refreshing obsessively waiting for more information. Is it Thursday yet?

by LovinBlue on Nov 11, 2008 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Shake!

Great analysis of otherwise confusing and dull (to me) information. I’m not a stats person, but I have to admit…they are becoming more interesting now. Funny how that works when you win a big game!!

(The stats get better…I’m more interested…hmmm…some corelation??)

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 6:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

*correlation

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 11, 2008 6:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m not going to lie, I have no idea what you are talking about. I still have no idea what DVOA means, and I’m not sure I want to learn to be honest. But nice post regardless?

The King of Anti-Fail and Unofficial Moderator of Stupid People

by KingRichard on Nov 11, 2008 6:12 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hey shake

Am I thinking about this right or does it seems every week the Colts are up against the “best” defense in the league, at least for that week, every week? When they faced the Ravens, they were the best D I believe, Titans are up there, and this week the Steelers were/are the best D in the league.

Is this true?

But I’m really excited for our last half of the schedule!

by MarkFive05 on Nov 11, 2008 6:20 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

The top 4 overall D's right now are

PIT, BAL, TEN and MIN.

GB is ranked #1 against the pass. CHI is #3 against the run.

The Colts have played a brutal schedule, especially the offense. Here’s one I forgot and just added. The Colts have played the 2nd hardest past schedule in the league by DVOA. They have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
137 yards per game
6.1 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 11, 2008 6:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They have the 3rd easiest remaining schedule in the league.

And for that I’m grateful!

by MarkFive05 on Nov 11, 2008 7:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Our run offence

Is actually a lot better than I gave it credit for. We’re opening decent holes and picked up yards. The things is that we’re not running all that often, and once every 4 or 5 runs we’ll get stuffed for a 1-2 yard loss which is killing our average.

We’re running downhill now, though. Only got ourselves to blame if we miss the playoffs – could scarcely ask for a better schedule.

by eltharion_doa on Nov 12, 2008 6:56 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Drive Stats

I love the stats on that site. My personal fav is the “drive stats”. The biggest concern I see there is the punts per drive for both offense and defense. As you can imagine, the defense is the worst in the league at forcing punts….just over 30% of the time. The offense is middle of the pack punting on 42.5% of their drives. When you look back at our history, our offense has always been top 2 in the league when it comes to punt %.

I like the heart that we showed by beating two tough teams and now we are back in this playoff hunt. For us to go further, 3rd down on both sides of the ball will be the key.

by Disco Stu on Nov 12, 2008 11:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs