Week 11 Picks

by shake n bake on Nov 12, 2008 7:35 PM EST Comment 1 comment

Record is picking winners. The against the spread contest (which I'm winning) is mgrex03's project.

Week 1: 10-6, Week 2: 10-5, Week 3: 11-5, Week 4: 6-7, Week 5: 9-5 Week 6: 9-5, Week 7: 12-2, Week 8: 8-6, Week 9: 10-6, 10-4, Week 10: 12-2

Total 97-49 (66.4%) , 97-47 (67.4%) ATS 83-61 (57.6%)

97 correct puts me behind only ESPN's accuscore system on Mgrex03's list of experts picking winners.

I'm still leading in the ATS contest so I will continue to post my reasonings for those picks.

Jets +3.5 FO says the Jets are better, Advanced NFL Stats says the Jets are better, I don't think the Jets are better and if I hadn't already submitted the pick I would keep flip-flopping on this one, but getting the FG is enough that I'm not stressing the pick.

Falcons -5.5 That Denver D is terrible, and the Falcons are a pretty good team. I hate the Matt Ryan is living up to the hype he got pre-draft.

Lions +13.5, Bengals +8.5, Oakland + 10.5, The weekly "this teams suck, but not THAT bad" picks. I was a 58 yard FG off the upright from going 4-2 on these last week.

Bears +3.5 The Packers kept it close through special teams play last week. The Bears are the polar opposite of the Vikings in special teams competence.

Colts -8.5, I would never give that many, especially to a team that isn't at the absolute bottom of the league if it wasn't for the Colts

Saints -4.5 Tough call, the Saints are always overrated, but the Chiefs are awful. The Saints are at least competent. I'll go with the giant DVOA and Efficiency Rating gap.

Ravens +6.5 The Ravens have covered every week since the Colts stomped them week 6. They are a very good team, that had a bad game against a very good team having a great day.

Bucs -3.5 a tough one. FO and Advanced NFL stats confirm my opinion that the Bucs are good, but not great and the Vikings are mediocre. I'll take the Bucs, but this one I won't feel bad about losing or great about winning.

Rams +5.5 The Niners showed some life, but so have the Rams at times, I just can't give that many points to such a bad team.

Arizona -2.5 really? One bad game (which they won) and they aren't expected to crush the terrible Seahawks.

Titans -2.5 This line looks so horribly wrong. If linemakers were handing out free money like it looks here they'd go out of business, but I can't force myself to not try to grab it.

Steelers -3.5 The Steelers are a very good team, the Chargers were suppose to be one.

Redskins +1.5 The Cowboys recent struggles run deeper than just not having Tony Romo.

Bills -4.5 oh yeah, lets see Brady Quinn do that against a mediocre defense.

Straight up winners: Pats, Falcons, Panthers, Eagles, Saints, Giants, Bucs, Dolphins, Bears, Colts, Niners, Cards, Titans, Steelers, Redskins, Bills.

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I've got a lot different than you

I’m not sure if that is good or bad…

Pats -3.5: Patriots have covered each of the past 4 weeks, and 5/6 (Charger game was the loss). They also have Mangini’s number.

Panthers -13.5: Normally I wouldn’t give this many points either, but Carolina is very good at home, giving up 11 points a game, while scoring 27/game. They are 4-1 ATS at home this season, only missing by 0.5 a point vs. ARI.

Eagles -8.5: The Eagles have destroyed the bad teams they’ve played this year (STL, SF, SEA) by an average of 23 points. The Bengals fall into this category.

Miami -10.5: I actually think the Lions could beat the Raiders right now. They’ve gone 9 quarters without a TD. Pennington won’t throw the INTs Delhomme did last week.

Packers -3.5: This is all dependent on whether the Sex Cannon plays. If Orton can go, I reserve the right to change this. The Bears have been very good on the road this year, winning 2 handily, and losing the other two by a combined 5 points.

Colts -8.5: I agree with you here, although the Colts are giving the 8.5, not getting it. The closest game the Texans have played in Indy was in 2003, a 30-21 Colt win. 8.5 looks just fine.

Chiefs +4.5: The Saints are 0-4 on the road this year, giving up an average of 32 pts/game. Thigpen hasn’t played bad either. I’ll take the points.

Giants -6.5: The past 4 weeks, the Ravens have played MIA, OAK, CLE, and HOU. This is the first game against the NFC East for Flacco. I think the Ravens will come back to earth, starting this week.

Browns +4.5: I don’t need to explain why I’m taking the Browns. The Bills are in a tail-spin. Quinn’s in the national spotlight again, after having almost 2 full weeks to prepare. He’ll keep it close enough, as they’ll probably lose by 3, thanks to their great coach.

by mgrex03 on Nov 12, 2008 11:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs