Somewhat off topic: Teams that could have head coaching vacancies next year

by BigBlueShoe on Nov 18, 2008 8:25 AM EST in Analysis Comment 30 comments

The NFL could be bracing itself for several job openings for head coach. Depending on how things shake out with the playoffs, the NFL could have as many as 14 job openings for head coach. Think I'm crazy? Well, ok, yeah I am. But think I'm wrong about this? Check out this list:

Cincinnati Bengals: This team has under achieved for three years and Marvin Lewis looks lost out there.
Philadelphia Eagles: They could miss the playoffs for the second straight year, and if you listen to talk radio in Philly, fans are pissed as hell at Andy Reid.
Oakland Raiders: This is obvious. The team has played much worse since Skeletor fired Lane Kiffin.
Cleveland Browns: They must make the playoffs. If not, Romeo must stab himself while Juliet (aka Phil Savage) must take poison.
Kansas City Chiefs: There is a rift between President Carl Peterson and HC Herm Edwards. Peterson could get the boot, but Edwards has been, and always will be, an overrated head coach.
Minnesota Vikings: If they do not make the playoffs, Brad Childress is gone. He married himself to QB Tavaras Jackson, and that marriage (and divorse) could cost him. The Vikes are too talented not to make the playoffs, and if they don't, the coach must take the blame.
Green Bay Packers: GM Ted Thompson is more out on a limb than HC Mike McCarthy, but McCarthy lobbied for Brett Favre's outster as much as Thompson did. If the Favre-led Jets make the playoffs and the Packers don't, McCarthy and Thompson are gone, and for good reason.
St. Louis Rams: Interim coach Jim Haslett had to win 7 games to keep his job. He ain't doing that.
San Francisco 49ers: They will likely retain Mike Singletary. Fans love him and players are responding ot him. But, if they collapse down the stretch, they'll look for a new coach.
San Diego Chargers: They fired defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell mid-season. Norv Turner's offense has been equally putrid to the defense all season, and there is no reason for it. If SD misses the playoffs, Turner is gone (and A.J. smith is on the hotseat).
Detroit Lions: Sadly, Rod Marinelli's team is 0-10. He was hired by moron-in-chief Matt Millen. Marinelli is a goner and he knows it. To his credit, he is coaching his brains out, and taking on anyone who questions the team.
Jacksonville Jaguars: This team was predicted to win the AFC South by many "experts." Jack Del Rio's antics have divided a locker room he put together. If a better offer is floated out there, look for Jack to make a move to get out of Jacksonville.
Seattle Seahawks: Mike Holmgren is retiring. His supposed replacement, Jim Mora Jr., might join him the way this club has played this year.
Dallas Cowboys: Wade Phillips was always a goner, even if Dallas manages to crawl into the playoffs.

Look at that list folks. Now, some of those teams (Dallas, Seattle) have assistant coaches already in place to take over should the head coach leave. It is also very possible that coaches like Del Rio, McCarthy, and Reid could just move from one team to another (like Jon Gruden did in 2002). Left off this list are the Indianapolis Colts. I do not think Dungy will retire after this year. That is just a hunch. But, I might be wrong with that.

All these potential openings mean assistant coaches from all teams will get looked at. This means Colts assistants like Ron Meeks and Alvin Williams could leave. I personally think Meeks is an underrated coordinator, and should get a chance to lead a club. Alvin Williams would make a great DC somewhere.

Other head coaching candidates: Josh McDaniels (Patriots OC), Ron Rivera (new Chargers DC), Mike Heimerdinger (Titans OC), Steve Spagnola (Giants DC), Jim Schwartz (Titans DC), Jim Fassell (former Giants HC), Brian Billick (former Ravens HC), and Bill Cowher (former Steelers HC).

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Couple of comments...

Very good analysis and list…However, just because the fans in Philly don’t like Reid does not mean he will get the ax or leave. Jeez, Philly fans will trash anyone!

Now as a Colts fan I have a hard time saying this…but I don’t think that Ron Meeks is an underrated DC. Lets not forget that this D has been inconsistent all season and deserves the criticism that it receives. I think Meeks is a good DC, one that does decent work in a relatively simple scheme…but not underrated.

by TRDean on Nov 18, 2008 8:38 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think McCarthy or Thompson are going anywhere. They’ll get at least one more year to improve. Besides, they are winning their division right now.

The King of Anti-Fail and Unofficial Moderator of Stupid People

by KingRichard on Nov 18, 2008 8:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Rumors

The rumors and whispers out of GB are that the ownership was not happy with the way Thompson handled the Favre situation. The sentiment is the Packers must make the playoffs. If they don’t, and the Jets do, Thompson is gone, and McCarthy might follow him.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Nov 18, 2008 10:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

that's really stupid if it's true

shouldn’t it be obvious to everyone that GB made the right choice? they got put in a bad situation by favre himself. it takes huge stones to stare down the greatest player in the history of your franchise and the greatest statistical qb ever in favor of an unproven, young qb. rodgers is clearly a legit young starter in this league and has played incredibly considering all the favre bs swirling around him in his first season as starter. if gb misses the playoffs it has nothing to do with rodgers, and it sure wouldn’t have been any better with favre there throwing twice as many picks as rodgers has. if anything thompson should be applauded for getting it right and not blinking in favre’s little game of chicken over the offseason.

by hal41605 on Nov 18, 2008 10:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I agree

Favre has played head games with the packers the last few years on the question of retirement. They had obviously had enough and put their foot down. I don’t blame them at all for getting rid of him. Just because he is doing well with the jets doesn’t mean the packer would be any better of with him. The jets are playing a softer schedule since their record sucked last year, and they added a number of other pieces. Green Bay is in a much tougher spot and they are right in the race for their division, and not far out of it for a wildcard.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Nov 18, 2008 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The issue

The issue is not how Rodgers has played, necessarily. Remember, Rodgers was struggling up until the recent win over the Bears (who are a shell of their early season selves). And while Rodgers has played well overall, he does not have the intangibles Favre has. The Jets were God awful last year. This year, they are posed to win their division and grab the second seed in the AFC. Favre is a BIG reason for that.

Look, it is obvious that a 38 year old Favre is better than Rodgers right now. That is not a knock on Rodgers, btw. But the reality and the perception is if Thompson had swallowed his pride then Favre would be a Packer and the club would be the #1 team in the NFC, not a mediocre one fighting for a playoff spot. Thompson did handle the situation rather poorly, and if his team doesn’t make it, he’s gone. I understand that rationale, and if I were a Packers fan I’d demand his ouster as well.

If you kick a legend to the curb, you better win without him. That simple.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Nov 18, 2008 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Dude…

Check the DVOA. Rodgers is playing better against a tougher schedule (as of right now, the data does not consider the win over the Bears). Also, there’s no way any rational being could argue that the Packers would be better than the Giants right now if only Favre were out there playing and throwing interceptions. The league is not the same as last year, man. “Mediocre” team? They’re ranked 7th in weighted DVOA vs. the Jets’ 13th, as of week 10. As for “intangibles”, WTF? Favre’s chief intangibles right now seem to include little more than the ability to inspire nostalgic and irrational hero-worship in the media and certain elements of football fandom.

by BlueU on Nov 18, 2008 11:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

soft schedule

I totally agree… The jets have a very easy schedule. They are beating teams like KC, Oak and Cincy. Not exactly tough competition.

and what would you have said if Green Bay were in the same position right now but with Favre? That they shouldn’t have caved to his shenanigans? That he is past it and they should give rodgers time to develop with the team. Let’s be honest, other than last year Favre hasn’t really looked that great for a couple of season before.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Nov 18, 2008 11:47 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

actually they even lost to oakland

by hal41605 on Nov 18, 2008 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

some probably disagree about who the better qb is

like football outsiders, who has favre at #24, just behind joe flacco. rodgers ranks #12. (w/o week 11 being considered)

while the jets are much better than last year, i’d say it’s more about leon washington and the defense. notice, favre is leading the league in INT’s at more than one a game… not good. rodgers is much better at taking care of the ball.

favre and rodgers are a statistical wash besides the picks. i think the argument could be made that rodgers is actually much more consistent than favre.

it’s weird how favre has his worst games against bad teams, like throwing 7 picks in a 3 game spread to cinci, oakland and kc. rodgers on the other hand, plays more predictably, with his bad games being tampa, tennessee and minny, 3 stout defensive teams.

i think the real question is how good would the jets be with rodgers. rodgers has yet to be the sole cause of a loss, though he was bad in their loss to TB. favre on the other hand, snatched defeat from the jaws of victory against the raiders and almost did the same against KC.

by hal41605 on Nov 18, 2008 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

jumping on the pile

they hit DVOA so I’ll go with some useful conventional stats

Favre has thrown picks on 3.8% of his passes, Rodgers on 1.9%. Rodgers throws picks half as often. He does that while throwing downfield more often, he has a higher yards per attempt and per completion that Favre.

The Jets are better because they can run the ball (two new additions to the OL and two young linemen developing) and because the defense is looking less and less like the 3-4 filled with 4-3 players that it was right when Mangini took over.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Defense

The Jets’ run D has been just shy of outstanding this year (Jenkins and Pace are looking like brilliant moves), and the pass D has some good young playmakers in Rhodes, Revis and Lowery. This is by far the biggest reason for the Jets’ turnaround.

That said, Favre has had positive impact. He may throw crazy picks, but the threat of the deep ball prevents teams from stacking 8 or 9 in the box like they did against Pennington. The gelling OLine helps too, but Jones would not be having this renaissance without Favre.

On a side note, one of the few downsides of living in New York is that you end up watching wayyyyyyy too many Jets games.

by ctnyc on Nov 18, 2008 2:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

to take this off on a tangent

people who were calling for a change to a 3-4 should look at the 06/07 Jets. They went from a Herm Edwards (A Dungy disciple) 4-3 to a 3-4, the result (by defensive DVOA)

2005 (Herm) 18th
2006 (Mangini) 26th
2007 (Mangini) 25th
2008 (Mangini) 11th, through last week

It took them 3 years to get above where they were before the change.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 2:53 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Jets are good....

Because their O-line is run blocking like mofos.

Favre’s done jack all since the bye week, intangibles inshmangibles.

Both teams are better for the trade, IMO.

by eltharion_doa on Nov 19, 2008 5:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

SD, GB, SF and SEA

I find a bit hard to believe that these 4 teams will have a vacant spot in the upcoming offseason. Look, SD has a down year, no doubt about it, but Norv Turner did get the SD side their first playoff win in a decade or so. I think that counts for something. Besides who want to turn their organization upside down(new philospohy, etc.), when they have such a strong team. If Turner is fired, I think his job would be taken by an assistant. Perhaps Rivera.

GB, last year McCarthy was honoured as Coach of the year. And the next year he is tossed out b/c of Favre inability to make a descicion? If McCarthy is fired, that would really make the GB president look like a horses ass. First their legend, then their promising HC. Jeez..

SF, Mike Singletary isn’t going anywhere. He would have been the 49’er HC from 09, if Nolan managed yet another subpar season. Well, Nolan didn’t even manage that, so he is just taking over ahead of schedule.

SEA, Perhaps they will have a vacant HC seat after this season. But atm I find it unlikely if they don’t try out Mora for at least a year or so.

by jocre on Nov 18, 2008 11:41 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

SD and GB

I can’t see GB giving McCarthy the boot just over the favre issue. That was an ugly situation no matter how things fell out. They are playing a tougher schedule this year than last and it shows. They are still in the race for their division.

Given that SD gave Schottenheimer the boot after a 14-2 season where he lead the AFC, I can’t see Norv keeping his job if he can’t even get to the playoffs in the pathetic division he is in right now. They do have great talent, but he can’t seem to figure out what to do with it. And if Norv goes I think his GM goes with him…

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Nov 18, 2008 11:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Heimerdinger

I don’t see why he would be a head coaching candidate. I think Spagnuolo and Schwartz will be the hottest coordinators available. I also think that Phillips would have been let go in Dallas regardless unless they were to win a super bowl.

by BlueVol03 on Nov 18, 2008 12:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

dinger is a HC candidate

because he has led an offense to the 4th best scoring total in the AFC with the likes of kerry collins, a rookie rb, and no WRs anyone can name outside of nashville. i’m not sure what more he could get out of these players. he may not make a good HC, who knows, but i won’t be surprised at all if he gets a shot, and he should.
not to be an ass, but if he can score more points with collins, johnson, white, scaife, jones and gage, than indy can with peyton, reggie, addai, clark, harrison, and gonzo he has really accomplished something amazing, and i say that with a lot of respect for what the colts are capable of on offense, even on a so-so year. what i mean is the only skill position the colts don’t dominate the titans in talent-wise is running back, yet dinger has milked our guys for more points. pretty impressive if you ask me.

by hal41605 on Nov 18, 2008 12:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Justin Gage

Lavelle (sp?) Hawkins
Justin McCarins (sp?)
Roydell Williams

I win

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Roydell Williams was released during pre-season.

Yes, the team with no WRs kicked the previous year’s leading receiver to the curb.

But I forgive you for not noticing, it was hard to tell since during pre-season the Titans had 7 receivers named Williams on the roster. (And 2 named Chris Davis.)

by hartley on Nov 18, 2008 12:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

if the Colts hadn't already played the Titans this year, I might have only got Gage

Gage had a big reception yesterday and the other two I remember from the Colts game

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 1:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Amazingly enough, you got most of them.

The only other receiver on the team worth mentioning is Brandon Jones.

And that’s “worth mentioning” on the Titans scale, none of these guys would even make the Colts roster. (yet – Hawkins is pretty good prospect)

Gage is the most memorable because he played for the Bears and he has the greatest jersey number-name combination EVER. #12 – Gage.

by hartley on Nov 18, 2008 1:13 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That’s brilliant :D

Is Gage for real or just having a few hot games?

by eltharion_doa on Nov 19, 2008 5:16 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure he's real, but has never stayed healthy for any real amount of time

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 19, 2008 9:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He does have health issues.

He’s had knee problems since the beginning of the season, and is just now 100% healthy and rounding into shape.

As to whether or not he’s “real,” we’ll see how he does the rest of the year; up until this past week, fans were calling for him to lose his starting job.

by hartley on Nov 19, 2008 11:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You forgot one

Indianapolis Colts- Dungy is going to retire sooner or later, don’t get me wrong I don’t want him to, but sooner or later he is going to. Of course we have our replacement already.

by MarkFive05 on Nov 18, 2008 1:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Why wouldn't they just promote your O-Coordinator?

I mean, yeesh, what else can you possibly expect that guy to accomplish?

Good post, BTW. I tend to agree that ‘Dinger won’t get HC consideration. I also tend to think this favors the Titans long-term since his is by far the more amazing coaching success this season. What little money gets spent on the Titans roster pretty much ALL goes to Defensive players.

DannoE

"You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one."
Go Titans!

by DannoE on Nov 18, 2008 2:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs