Week 12 Wildcard Positioning Guide

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 1:25 PM EST

How to root for better wildcard position for the Colts.

The Colts are sitting in the top wildcard spot, but that place is far from secure. They are in a 4 way tie, but are currently on top of the tiebreakers.

Bengals over Steelers, the Ravens and Steelers are only separated by a game and they play again so it’s better that both have worse records than Indy.

Eagles over Ravens, NFC over AFC is an easy call

Vikings over Jags, The Jags are almost out of the race, two games back with a bad conference record, but it would be good from them to be totally out of the race before week 16's game against the Colts

Chiefs over Bills, the Bills are dropping like a stone and likely need a sweep of their 3 remaining division games to pass the Fins or Pats, but every team that we can get out of the race is a plus.

Pats over Dolphins, If the Dolphins hadn't given up the game winning TD with 7 seconds remaining to the Texans they would be ahead of the Colts right now. The Fins are the only team with a real shot at winning the tiebreaker over the Colts

Jets over Titans How the Colts can win the AFC South:

Titans lose 5, Colts win out
Titans lose out, Colts win 5
Titans lose to Texans, Colts, and two of the following NYJ/PIT/CLE Colts win out

Texans over Browns, the Browns are on the edge of the wildcard race and on the remaining schedule, the Texans are 3 back of Indy without the tiebreaker.

Broncos ? Raiders, if the Colts beat the Chargers then we root for the Broncos all the time, so they win the AFC West keeping the Chargers, who we have the tiebreaker over in the wildcard race. If the Colts lose to SD, then we want them to win the AFC West to get them out of wildcard competition, so would support the Broncos opponents.

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useful

as it puts in perspective what needs to happen.. Best scenario WIN OUT. Then what other teams do is irrelevant pretty much we would be in.

Think it is dreaming that the titans would lose that many at the end, but anything can happen…

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Nov 18, 2008 2:23 PM EST reply actions

Re: #3

Titans would have four losses and Colts would have at least five. So how would we win the division?

by LukeM on Nov 18, 2008 2:36 PM EST reply actions

Nevermind...

…you’re counting the Jets, too. Sorry.

by LukeM on Nov 18, 2008 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

no you were right

Colts have to win out in #3

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 2:43 PM EST up reply actions

Jets/Titans

If you are talking about wildcard positioning, wouldn’t a Titan win be what we are rooting for? The division race is over. Let the Titans spank the teams that we will be fighting for wildcard spots.

Also, it will be a cold day in hell before I root for the Patriots.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 2:39 PM EST reply actions

If my choice is

Miami #5 and Indy #6
or
Indy #5 and NE #6

Give me the damn 6 seed and let’s get hot.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

You Heard It Here First...

Indy #5, NE #6. AFC Championship at The Lube between the 5 and 6 seeds.

by TouchdownMonkey on Nov 18, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I can dream, can't I?

by TouchdownMonkey on Nov 18, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

I Agree

I think it is going to be as follows

Titans
Steelers/Jets
Jets/Steelers
Broncos
Colts
Pats

We play Broncos and beat them, Pats play Steelers and beat them.
Then we play the Jets and beat them, Pats play Titans (would be close but I think the Pats by a field goal)
As was said before Colts – Pats at the LUBE COLTS WIN COLTS WIN
then it’s time for the Manning bowl (colts use manning at DE and get him to sack ELI) COLTS WIN

by canadiancolts on Nov 18, 2008 4:19 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

+1 to any post

where the Colts getting a home playoff game and winning the superbowl isn’t the least likely thing in the post

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Ha!

I like it.

by coltsfanawalt on Nov 18, 2008 4:22 PM EST up reply actions

Manning Bowl

Perfect!!

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Nov 18, 2008 4:43 PM EST up reply actions

Jets are a division leader too

The Colts don’t play them so no head to head, and they have a good in conference record (5-3) so it’s better they win it than the Pats.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 2:45 PM EST up reply actions

Agree to disagree I guess

The Colts could be in direct competition with the Jets for the wildcard. Therefore, we want them to lose. We want all of them to beat up on each other and stay muddled.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

Wildcard positioning

I think I disagree with you on the meaning of wildcard postitioning. I don’t look at the number….5 seed or 6 seed. I look at matchups. Your scenarios seem all about the numbers.

Therefore, we want Denver to win that division regardless. I don’t want to play at SD in the playoffs. Denver is a MUCH better matchup. Even if we lose on Sunday night, we should stay ahead of SD and the tiebreaker is moot.

The way I see it….the schedule is favorable for a #5 seed. Let’s play Denver on wildcard weekend, gather momentum and break Tennessee’s heart, and play the AFC title game where the hell ever.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 2:50 PM EST reply actions

I'm still looking at the Colts getting in

I want to secure that spot before, worrying about matchups. I don’t want to even think about the amount of moving parts and different scenarios it would take to break down what gives favorable matchups at this point.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Nov 18, 2008 2:55 PM EST up reply actions

too early

and too many variables to be thinking about matchups. That is more a week 16 discussion when the race for wildcard and divisions have fewer scenarios to try and puzzle out.

An expert is someone who knows more and more about less and less until they know everything about nothing...

by bluegirl on Nov 18, 2008 3:03 PM EST up reply actions

this isn't rocket science

You guys act like we are splitting the atom here.

1) We have the inside track on the 5 seed….easy schedule for us, tough schedule for others, and we have the tiebreakers.

2) Tennessee is the MONSTER favorite for the #1 seed. The AFC west has the inside track at the #4 seed.

3) The #5 plays the #4 in the wildcard round. A win there and you most likely get the #1 seed in the divisional round.

I do agree that many factors can affect this, but statiscally (backed by the stats geeks at football outsiders) the most likely scenario right now is….

Tennessee, #2 Pittsburgh, #3 AFC East winner, #4 Denver, #5 us, and #6 is the only real crapshoot at this point.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

I agree.

Although I could see the 2 and 3 seed potentially flipping. I do agree with the others too, though. It is early enough that some surprises can still occur.

by coltsfanawalt on Nov 18, 2008 4:31 PM EST up reply actions

I agree

I really see a chance that the #3 and #4 could flip flop. Denver is only 1 game behind the Jets. The AFC east is much tougher than the west. They could knock each other off each week and the division winner could be 9-7 or 10-6 making them the #4 seed.

by Disco Stu on Nov 18, 2008 4:35 PM EST up reply actions

Agree sort of

Here are their schedules

Denver;
Oak, @ Jets, KC, @ Carolina, Bills, @ San Diego, I think they Go 3-3 (maybe 4-2 if they beat the Chargers)

Jets;
@ Titans, Denver, @ San Fran, Bills, @ Seattle, Miami, Looks like they go 4-2 (3-3 if they lose to Denver)

Pittsburg;
Cincy, @ Pats, Dallas, @ Ravens, @ Titans, Browns, So I say they go 3-3

All this means Denver wins AFC W San Diego will go 4-2 (losing to Colts and Bucs) but comes up 1 game shy. Jets win AFC E, Pit will win AFC N. and the seeds look like this. Baltimore goes 2-4 (look at their schedule) and misses, it all comes down to the Pats – Dolphins game whoever wins that has the inside track. for the last wildcard with the colts getting the 5 seed.

Jets #2 (11-5), Steelers # 3 (10-6), Broncos # 4 (9-7)

by canadiancolts on Nov 19, 2008 5:54 PM EST up reply actions