Week 13 Picks

Record and picks are picking winners. The against the spread contest is mgrex03's project.

Week 1: 10-6, Week 2: 10-5, Week 3: 11-5, Week 4: 6-7, Week 5: 9-5  Week 6: 9-5, Week 7: 12-2, Week 8: 8-6, Week 910-4, Week 10: 12-2, Week 11: 11-4-1, Week 12: 10-6

Total 118-57-1 (67.4%)  ATS 96-80 (54.5%)

Jump for picks, which NFL player shot himself in the leg last night, Favre hate and why unfortunately Matt Cassel's success doesn't take away from Tom Brady.

Titans over Lions, the Lions are bad, but all they need to get a win now is to stop facing good teams that don't quit once down 2-3 scores early. (Un)fortunately their remaining schedule is TEN, MIN, IND, NO GB. If they don't jump out on the Vikings and make them abandon the run we will probably see 0-16.

Cowboys over Seahawks. As ugly as the team was with a Vikings castoff replacing Romo at the helm they probably didn't lose any ground. They went 3-1 without under the backups with the only loss coming against the NFC's best team, the Giants.

Cardinals over Eagles. I'll let FO commenter "Love is like a bottle of gin" describe this years Eagles

I see the Eagles as a good team who had bad luck, and decided to implode rather than soldier on.

Bills over Niners, The Bills aren't bad, but they aren't a playoff team yet. They'll have to have another 2007-like draft where they get very good players (Lynch, Posluszny, Edwards) without a top 10 pick.

Ravens over Bengals  I am not a quarterback scouting expert. I thought (currently 3rd string behind a 7th round rookie) Packers QB Brian Brohm was the best QB in the class. I expected Matt Ryan to fail and Flacco not to be ready to play this year.

Bucs over Saints  NFC South rule of thumb. Bucs underrated, Saints overrated

Giants over Redskins  The Giants will be without Plaxico Burress after he accidentally shot himself in the leg at a nightclub last night. His injuries are not believed to be life threatening.

Dolphins over Rams

QB Comp% Yards TD INT INT% Y/A Y/C Rating
ANY/A DYAR DVOA
Favre 70.6% 2461 20 13 3.7% 7.1 10.0 94.1 5.2 477 9.8%
Rodgers 63.5% 2599 17 9 2.5% 7.2 11.2 90.5 5.8 578 12.8%
Pennington 66.0% 2715 11 6 1.8% 8.0 12.1 93.7 6.8 827 26.2%

Favre was traded to the Jets for a pick that will be a 2nd rounder (or 1st if the Jets makes the Superbowl).

Rodgers was a mid 1st round pick by the Packers.

Pennington was signed as a free agent by the Dolphins. He has been the best of the 3 this season. Noodle arm Pennington has the highest yards per completion and per attempt.

Colts over Browns  a 9-0 run to start a Colts season isn't all that unusual, but this years Colts have a chance to end on a 9-0 run. The Colts have never finished a regular season with back to back wins under Dungy (resting starters). Their longest run to end a season in the Peyton Manning era was 3 games in 2000.

Panthers over Packers  both teams have faded a bit from promising starts with their QBs struggling. Honestly, How do you throw two picks to Jason David?

Falcons over Chargers, the Falcons are good. It's taken me a while to believe it, but the stomping of the Panthers convinced me. The Chargers are dangerous and fighting for their lives, but they would be dead and buried in 5 of the other 7 divisions including the NFC South.

Jets over Broncos, I'm mad at the Jets. Their combination of offseason moves and subsquent success is contributing to football stupidity. They added two very good players on both lines (counting a 3-4 LB), but everyone is focusing on the other addition who hasn't actually been much (if any) improvement over what they had (see table above).

Steelers over Pats, The people comparing Cassel to Brady's beginings similar statisically are missing something. Randy Moss. The change in QB production with/without Moss before last year added an average of

+1.8% completion, +829 yards, +11.67 TDs, -4.33 INTs, +1.17 yrds/att, +1.53 yrds/comp, +16.97 QB Rating, +73.3 DPAR.

Brady's increases were very similar to the changes in the non-Raiders offense changes. Cassel isn't doing the same as Brady when he started out. He's doing the same while having a motivated Randy Moss, one of the most dangerous weapons in NFL history.

Chiefs over Raiders residents of Northern Californa, Northern Nevada, Kansas, Northeast Nebraska, Northwest Iowa and non-St. Louis Missouri, I pity you.

Bears over Vikings, Injured Orton or Sexy Rexy? Tough choice for the Bears. Luckily the Vikings have picked their Turd Sandwich and are sticking with him.

Jags over Texans, I hope I'm wrong on this one. I want to see the Jags meltdown into the basement of the AFC South.

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