Third Down Defense: Inside the Numbers

by mgrex03 on Nov 8, 2008 7:01 PM EST in Colts Analysis

We've all seen how the Colts have struggled on 3rd downs this year. Seemingly every third down is converted by our opponent, especially at the most inopportune times. I decided to take a closer look at the Colts 3rd down defense, breaking it down by:

Run/Pass
Distance

Here is a summary of the first 8 games, and after the jump I'll put each individual game, so you can see how the defense did against each opponent.

	Total
	Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Pct
Short (≤ 3)	16	16	7	13	23	29	79%
Middle (4 - 7)	2	7	18	36	20	43	47%
Long (8+)	1	9	8	26	9	35	26%
Total	19	32	33	75	52	107	49%
Pct	59.4%		44.0%		48.6%

Some things to notice:

Running plays on Third and short are a perfect 16/16. That, to put it bluntly, is awful. We have not stopped a 3rd and short on the ground all year. It's true we've had some struggles with the DL, but that is absolutely unacceptable.
Related to the first point, why would a team try to pass the ball on the Colts with 3rd and short? Minnesota was the worst, going 0/3, and not trying to run it at all on 3rd and short.
Teams are only 3/16 running the ball on 3rd and 4 or more. That is very good, and unexpected. Teams have tried to catch the defense off guard in a passing situation, and it hasn't worked.
There were only 2 times that the defense stopped the 3rd down, but had a penalty that gave the other team a first down. I certainly thought it was more, but it was only twice. And only once did it lead to points.
The Titans were 4/6 on 3rd and longs. That game can boil down right to that. Even just stopping 2 of those could have been the difference.
Overall, the Colts rank 30th in 3rd down percentage. My numbers are slightly different, as I included those 2 cases where a penalty gave the other team a first down a conversion, while officially they were fails. That seems dumb to me, but it is what it is. If the Colts expect to make the playoffs, this needs to dramatically improve. Getting down under 40% should be the goal.

Like I said above, game by game numbers are after the jump.

	Chicago						Minnesota
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	5	5	2	2	7	7	0	0	0	3	0	3
Middle (4 - 7)	1	2	1	2	2	4	0	2	2	4	2	6
Long (8+)	0	2	1	3	1	5	0	0	0	4	0	4
Total	6	9	4	7	10	16	0	2	2	11	2	13

	Jacksonville						Houston
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	3	3	0	1	3	4	2	2	3	3	5	5
Middle (4 - 7)	1	2	4	5	5	7	0	0	1	3	1	3
Long (8+)	0	0	0	3	0	3	1	3	0	2	1	5
Total	4	5	4	9	8	14	3	5	4	8	7	13

	Baltimore						Green Bay
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	1	1	1	1	2	2	1	1	0	1	1	2
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	0	4	8	4	8
Long (8+)	0	1	1	4	1	5	0	1	1	1	1	2
Total	1	2	2	9	3	11	1	2	5	10	6	12

	Tennessee						New England
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	2	2	0	1	2	3	2	2	1	1	3	3
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	2	5	2	5	0	1	4	5	4	6
Long (8+)	0	1	4	5	4	6	0	1	1	4	1	5
Total	2	3	6	11	8	14	2	4	6	10	8	14

Poll

Which is most surprising with regards to the Colts and 3rd down defense?

Not stopping a 3rd and short on the ground

16 votes

Being very good on running plays of 4 or more yards

10 votes

How good the Titans were on 3rd and long

21 votes

The Vikings never ran the ball on 3rd and short

26 votes

73 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Sweet Post

I love Colts Football by the numbers!

GOOOOO HORSE!

by jack-manning on Nov 9, 2008 5:13 AM EST reply actions

Excellent stats

I figured the numbers were like this, but a post that actually has them really helps. Good God this team is bad on 3rd down.

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by Brad Wells on Nov 9, 2008 6:29 AM EST reply actions