Predictor Picks for Week 15

Last week, the Predictor was 10-6  That puts me at 129-79 on the season, which is 62.0%. Still strong.

Here are the picks for Week 15:

Win % Away Home Win %
14.7% New Orleans Chicago 85.3%
29.0% Tampa Bay Atlanta 71.0%
54.1% Washington Cincinnati 45.9%
11.9% San Francisco Miami 88.1%
70.0% Tennessee Houston 30.0%
15.5% Detroit Indianapolis 84.5%
35.8% Green Bay Jacksonville 64.2%
32.7% San Diego Kansas City 67.3%
10.5% Buffalo N.Y. Jets 89.5%
75.2% Seattle St. Louis 24.8%
97.8% Minnesota Arizona 2.2%
27.5% Denver Carolina 72.5%
37.6% New England Oakland 62.4%
23.4% Pittsburgh Baltimore 77.6%
70.0% N.Y. Giants Dallas 30.0%
49.0% Cleveland Philadelphia 51.0%

Nideak asked a question last week about where I get the probabilities from, and I didn't see it until today, so I thought I'd answer him here.  Basically I've taken every major stat over the past 6 years, created 4 "levels" for each one, and loaded them into a Bayesian Network, created by an algorithm that I don't remember the name of.  I then enter in predicted data, which I base off of the prior 7 weeks. 

One of the stats loaded into the network is "Winner", so it "knows", based on old data, what has the best chance of winning a game.  Once I get all the data in for each of the categories, other than "Winner", I get a probability for each team to win, and that's what I report here.

If interested, I talked a little bit more about it here and here.  Feel free to fire more questions away.

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