Strength of Schedule through Week 14

by mgrex03 on Dec 12, 2008 12:00 AM EST in Analysis Comment 4 comments

I promised I'd keep doing the Strength of Schedule, even after the Colts play the lowly Bengals and Lions. I've gone all fancy on you, and the table is after the jump. Here's some notes on the table:

The first set of columns is the straight up Opponents' Winning Percentage. The Colts are still over .500, but probably will fall under it after this week. They are 14th toughest in this.
The second set of columns is Opponents' Winning Percentage with games played against that team taken out. For example, the Colts are 9-4, so I took away 9 losses, and 4 wins to get this percentage. The Colts are 10th toughest this way.
The third set of columns is the Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage. You can't really take anything from these numbers by themselves, but they will be used in the overall Strength of Schedule.
The Last Column is the Strength of Schedule, which is 2/3 Opponents' Winning Percentage, and 1/3 Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage. This is what the NCAA used to use for football, and uses now for basketball, so I think it's a decent way of doing it, rather than just straight up Opponents' Winning Percentage. The Colts are 13th toughest.
Each of the columns are sortable, so you can see anything you want, and draw your own conclusions.

My observations? The Colts have played a league average schedule, nothing more, nothing less. Even though it will drop the next two weeks, it will get a nice boost in Week 17. I bet we'll finish around 12th or 13th.

We also see why the AFC East has 3 teams tied at 8-5, as all 4 teams are in the bottom 7 in SoS. And they all still have crappy teams to play.

Team	Opponent				Opp. - Record				Opp. Opponent				SoS
Team	W	L	T	Win %	W	L	T	Win %	W	L	T	Win %	SoS
Bengals	107	61	1	0.636	96	60	0	0.615	1070	1103	24	0.492	0.5882
Browns	100	68	1	0.595	91	64	1	0.587	1057	1120	20	0.486	0.5583
Lions	96	73	0	0.568	83	73	0	0.532	1064	1125	8	0.486	0.5407
Packers	94	75	0	0.556	86	70	0	0.551	1070	1119	8	0.489	0.5338
Chiefs	95	74	0	0.562	84	72	0	0.538	1023	1171	3	0.466	0.5302
Rams	93	75	1	0.553	82	73	1	0.529	1044	1140	13	0.478	0.5282
Eagles	89	79	1	0.530	84	72	0	0.538	1091	1084	22	0.502	0.5203
Jaguars	89	79	1	0.530	80	75	1	0.516	1069	1117	11	0.489	0.5161
Chargers	90	79	0	0.533	82	74	0	0.526	1052	1139	6	0.480	0.5151
Seahawks	89	79	1	0.530	78	77	1	0.503	1062	1124	11	0.486	0.5150
Redskins	87	81	1	0.518	81	74	1	0.522	1108	1068	21	0.509	0.5149
Ravens	83	83	3	0.500	79	74	3	0.516	1147	1035	15	0.525	0.5085
Colts	85	83	1	0.506	81	74	1	0.522	1120	1064	13	0.513	0.5082
Saints	87	82	0	0.515	81	75	0	0.519	1084	1109	4	0.494	0.5080
Texans	83	85	1	0.494	76	79	1	0.490	1135	1049	13	0.520	0.5026
Raiders	86	83	0	0.509	76	80	0	0.487	1063	1129	5	0.485	0.5009
Steelers	80	86	3	0.482	77	76	3	0.503	1156	1025	16	0.530	0.4981
Bears	82	86	1	0.488	76	79	1	0.490	1112	1079	6	0.508	0.4946
Buccaneers	82	87	0	0.485	78	78	0	0.500	1098	1094	5	0.501	0.4904
Vikings	81	88	0	0.479	76	80	0	0.487	1116	1075	6	0.509	0.4893
Falcons	80	88	1	0.476	75	80	1	0.484	1117	1078	2	0.509	0.4872
Cowboys	78	89	2	0.467	73	81	2	0.474	1143	1039	15	0.524	0.4862
Giants	77	89	3	0.464	75	78	3	0.490	1140	1039	18	0.523	0.4840
Cardinals	81	87	1	0.482	76	79	1	0.490	1061	1123	13	0.486	0.4835
Panthers	79	90	0	0.467	76	80	0	0.487	1116	1077	4	0.509	0.4813
Patriots	81	88	0	0.479	76	80	0	0.487	1057	1131	9	0.483	0.4806
Dolphins	79	90	0	0.467	74	82	0	0.474	1048	1141	8	0.479	0.4712
49ers	77	91	1	0.459	69	86	1	0.446	1084	1101	12	0.496	0.4711
Jets	76	92	1	0.453	71	84	1	0.458	1075	1117	5	0.490	0.4653
Broncos	71	98	0	0.420	66	90	0	0.423	1126	1067	4	0.513	0.4512
Titans	67	101	1	0.399	66	89	1	0.426	1160	1026	11	0.530	0.4431
Bills	67	102	0	0.396	60	96	0	0.385	1115	1075	7	0.509	0.4340