DVOA on the Colts

The Colts DVOA dropped like you would expect. What you wouldn't expect is that it dropped less than a percent allowing them to rise up one place overall and in the AFC due to Arizona and the Jets taking big hits.

DVOA ranks the Colts as the 11th best team in the league (10th when weighted towards more recent games) and 4th in the AFC.

Offensively it's the same story. The Colts DVOA falls, but the teams around them fell harder, raising Indy up one spot to 6th in the league and 2nd in the AFC (to Denver).

The Running games poor performance, especially on short yardage where they had been successful, against a sub-par D and their first fumble of the year drops them to a more intutive ranking of 22nd. Despite what many have called a bad game for Peyton the Colts now have the top ranked pass O in the AFC, 5th overall.

The directional splits paint an odd picture in the run game. The Colts are at their best running wide left where they are about league average. That would probably be attributed to the Colts classic stretch play, except that they are at their worst running to right end. That would suggest that it's Ugoh and CJ outperforming Diem and Pollak, but the trend is reversed (but far less extreme) going behind right and left tackle. The Colts have been far better running outside to Ugoh and CJ's side, but are more successful running directly behind Diem and Pollak. My guess is that it's Ugoh and CJ's athletism that's making the difference. Both have played LT the elite athletic spot on the line. Ugoh has fantastic physical tools that he shows inconsistantly and CJ was converted from TE in college. Both players have been inconsistant though, which is likely why the Colts struggle to run behind the two of them.

Pass Protection has remained excellent. The Colts are ranked 2nd.

Defensively the Colts hop back into the top half of the league at 14th. The improved DB play has reopenned the traditional gap between the run D and pass D. The Pass D ranks 13th, while the run D trails a quarter of the league behind at 21st.

The Colts have the most consistant special teams in the league. Returns are sub-par, coverage is very good, kicking is mediocre.

Finally the playoff odds. Indy is a near lock according to FO. 96% chance of getting a wildcard spot, 0.7% chance of winning the division. Their numbers expect the Colts to get the 5 seed over the 6 seed in the AFC by a near 2:1 margin.

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