Results: FO vs ME
by shake n bake on Dec 29, 2008 6:41 PM EST
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PrintI put my record predictions up against FO's projections in PFP 2008. I was off by an average of 2.9 wins.
Jump for how they did.
| Team | Projected | Actual | Difference |
| Titans | 6.7 | 13 | +6.3 |
| Steelers | 7.2 | 12 | +4.8 |
| Colts | 9.9 | 12 | -2.1 |
| Ravens | 8.5 | 11 | +2.5 |
| Dolphins | 5.5 | 11 | +5.5 |
| Patriots | 12.8 | 11 | -1.8 |
| Jets | 7.2 | 9 | +1.8 |
| Chargers | 11 | 8 | -3 |
| Texans | 8.9 | 8 | -0.9 |
| Broncos | 8.7 | 8 | -0.7 |
| Bills | 7.2 | 7 | -0.2 |
| Raiders | 3.9 | 5 | +1.9 |
| Jags | 9.2 | 5 | -4.2 |
| Bengals | 6.8 | 4.5 | -3.3 |
| Browns | 6.3 | 4 | -2.3 |
| Chiefs | 6.6 | 2 | -4.6 |
NFC
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
| Giants | 9.6 | 12 | +2.4 |
| Panthers | 9.5 | 12 | +2.5 |
| Falcons | 3.5 | 11 | +7.5 |
| Vikings | 10.1 | 10 | -0.1 |
| Eagles | 11.7 | 9.5 | -2.2 |
| Cardinals | 7.5 | 9 | +1.5 |
| Bucs | 10.3 | 9 | -1.3 |
| Cowboys | 8.1 | 9 | +0.9 |
| Bears | 6.9 | 9 | +2.1 |
| Redskins | 6.9 | 8 | +1.1 |
| Saints | 8.3 | 8 | -0.3 |
| Niners | 5.3 | 7 | +1.7 |
| Packers | 11.4 | 6 | -5.4 |
| Seahawks | 10.5 | 4 | -6.5 |
| Rams | 5.1 | 2 | -3.1 |
| Lions | 4.1 | 0 | -4.1 |
Most Overestimated: Seahawks, Packers, Jags, Chiefs, Lions
Most Underestimated: Falcons, Titans, Dolphins, Steelers
Right on: Saints, Vikings, Texans, Broncos, Cowboys, Bills
Average Off: AFC: 2.9 NFC: 2.7 Total: 2.8
FO wins by a tenth of a win per team.
or to score it a different way.
Shake closer: Colts, Texans, Titans, Bills, Steelers, Browns, Chiefs, Bucs, Saints, Falcons, Giants, Eagles, Redskins, Packers, Vikings, Seahawks (16)
FO closer: Jags, Patriots, Jets, Fins, Ravens, Bengals, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders, Panthers, Cowboys, Bears, Lions, Niners, Rams, Cardinals (16)
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woah shake
watch out for that big swingin dick of yours.
but seriously, nice.
hahaha
I’m pretty sure they posted updated projections closer to the start of the season, the PFP projections were post draft. The gap will probably widen when the picks are from the same time. I’d still happy with how I did. Should have trusted the FO numbers on the Ravens more, but that’s the only one I really blame myself on at all.
Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA
by shake n bake on Dec 29, 2008 7:45 PM EST up reply actions
And they ALWAYS under-project the Colts. Always. Part of it is the Colts’ perpetual good 3rd down performance and FO’s historical evidence saying it’s supposed to fall off… every year. Apparently that holds true for every team not named the Indianapolis Colts. Might have something to do with that QB guy, too….
Bobman
yeah
The Colts are specifically why I keep saying to them (and shake) you can’t use math to predict the NFL… Each year, ‘well, when a team outperforms their pythagorean wins will have a drop off next year!’ I think the colts have out performed this number like the past 6 years. Maybe they will have a drop off, but it will be because of their QB (as you said) getting old/retiring more than it will be some predictive numbers.
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