Wild Card hype is silliness

by Brad Wells on Dec 30, 2008 11:45 AM EST in Colts Analysis

A lot has been made recently about how everyone thinks the AFC's Super Bowl representative will come out of the Wild Card round. It seems the feeling is that if you are a Wild Card team, you have a better (or even easier) chance to get to the Super Bowl. If Vegas is any indicator, all four road Wild Card round teams are favored this weekend. However, since 2000, the Wild Card round teams have represented the AFC in only 3 of the 8 Super Bowls played, and Wild Card round teams have won only 4 of those 8.

Much of the recent Wild Card mania stems from the last three Super Bowl winners: New York Giants, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers. All three were Wild Card round teams, and two of those three did not win their own division.

But, if you look closer at those teams as they entered the playoffs those years, they were top tier teams throughout the year that had to battle through injuries and adversity to get in. In the cases of Indy and Pittsburgh, both those teams were top tier AFC clubs who were ravaged by injuries during their regular seasons. When the playoffs rolled around, they got healthy at the right time and used their health and experience to win Super Bowls. In the case of the New York Giants, they played a decimated Tampa Bay team in the Wild Card round and a poorly coached and immature Dallas Cowboys team in the second. After those two wins, they had the confidence to beat the Packers in overtime in Green Bay. They then went on to beat the Patriots.

The other thing these teams shared is they all had the ability to make plays in the passing game and they could all get after the QB. For all the overblown attention the running game gets in the playoffs, the bottom line is if you cannot throw or attack the opponent's QB, you are dead meat. Running the ball and stopping the run are important, but more important is pressuring the QB and converting on third down via the pass. The Giants, Colts, and Steelers did that in the playoffs during their respective Super Bowl runs.

The other important element is coaching. Tom Coughlin, Tony Dungy, and Bill Cowher are outstanding head coaches. Always have been. They manage games well, develop solid game plans, and demand respect. Coaching is a big key in the playoffs, and if a Wild Card team has a great coach, that coach gives them a better chance to win.

Make no mistake: It is certainly not easy to get to the Super Bowl via the Wild Card round, and your chances do not improve when you come from there. Where your chances do improve is when your team can pressure the QB and make plays in the passing game. Those factors give you the best chance to win in January. Interestingly enough, two teams that fit that bill are the Chargers and the Colts, who will play Saturday night.

Rather than the recent Wild Card teams success "guaranteeing" a Super Bowl rep will come from there, I think the last three Super Bowls have highlighted the greatness of NFL parity. Your seeding doesn't matter. What you did in the regular season is gone and forgotten. In the playoffs, ANYONE can win ANYWHERE. That is the way it should be.

That is why the NFL dominates other pro leagues.

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Comments

And that is why

College football needs to adopt this system as well. Good write up BBS

by metal_militia on Dec 30, 2008 12:02 PM EST reply actions

here's something interesting...

Since the inception of the 2 wild card team system wild card teams that make the super bowl are undefeated.

by Nideak on Dec 30, 2008 12:06 PM EST reply actions

The Colts weren’t a wildcard team in 2006.

by KingRichard on Dec 30, 2008 12:11 PM EST reply actions

I think he is including teams that play in the Wildcard rounds. Like San Diego and Miami this year

by skywalker on Dec 30, 2008 12:16 PM EST up reply actions

semantics

Yeah, I think he got caught up in word-play. Indy played Wild Card Weekend, but BBS clearly knows they were not a WC team because in the next sentence he says 2 of the 3 didn’t win their own divisions, pretty much the definition of a WC team. Meaning that the third (Colts) were not a WC team. Oh well.

I say execute the editor.

Bobman

by Bobman on Dec 30, 2008 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

I fixed it

So there is no confusion.

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by Brad Wells on Dec 30, 2008 12:32 PM EST up reply actions

by KingRichard on Dec 30, 2008 1:51 PM EST up reply actions

BBS

I agree that stopping the pass/passing well is important, but in no way is it more important than the run game. Even during the Colts run, the run attack was fantastic and the run D stepped up, the big reason for winning it all, since the passing game wasn’t even that impressive.

But in the end, it almost always is defense winning the championship. Even when we got it, it was because our D stepped up, and look at every other champion in the decade, and one thing stands out; great defense.

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by MrNFL on Dec 30, 2008 12:37 PM EST reply actions

Pressure

Pressure and the ability to handle it is still the most important factor in my opinion. You could see an obvious difference in young Manning regular season/post season. Too many times people freak out when they realize there’s only 20 minutes left in the game and they’re down by a score and make mistakes. There’s no series like other sports. In 2006 Manning didn’t have a spectacular post season but the difference was is he played patient. And last year the pressure got to the Patriots for the perfect season. Confidence is also a huge huge factor. Confidence is one of the most important things in the NFL. If the Titans lost to us the first time around this year, not only do I think this game might’ve meant the division title and #1 seed but they might’ve been 10-6. All teams feed off of it. Football is definitely the most primal of the sports. If you think you’re going to tear a QBs arms off and beat their RB over the head, then the same player with the same talent will play better than if they limped into the playoffs and have doubts.

I’m going to say something here that goes against my normal mantra. But I’m pretty sure you guys know I count jumping blue colts instead of sheep when I try to sleep so bear with me. And we do have our leaders on our team, but the ability to psych people up is why Ray Lewis is so amazing. After I see him in sit down normal interviews I want to go out and hit an old lady carrying groceries as hard as I can and start doing his dance. When I see him on the sidelines I want to hit her, take her groceries, kick the door to her house in and shave her dog. That man’s intense.

I swear everytime I see him I think he’s going to make a great play or totally pull off the opening scene from The Last Boy Scout and just start going nuts. But take the guy’s gun away and give him one of those flags they run back and forth after TDs.

by monstersbox on Dec 30, 2008 1:51 PM EST reply actions