Shake's Pro Bowl Ballot: Runningbacks

by shake n bake on Dec 5, 2008 2:30 PM EST in Pro Bowl

AFC RBs (3)

Easy Picks: Thomas Jones, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton

Rushing yards, yards per carry and DYAR all agree on the AFC's top 3 backs. Jones leads the AFC in yardage by over 100 yards with 11 TDs to go with it. Top RB in the AFC in DYAR and DVOA. In a distant 2nd and 3rd are the rookie speed backs, both with over 900 yards on more than 4.7 a carry and at least 7 TDs.

But, but, but...: LaDainian Tomlinson

If you are going to average under 4 yards per carry you can't go to the Pro Bowl over guys who got more yards on less carries. Tomlinson leads in AFC in carries, but has only 885 yards and 7 TDs to show for it.

NFC RBs

Easy Picks: Clinton Portis, Brandon Jacobs

The top two backs by both DVOA and DYAR. Both averaging over 4.8 per carry while consistantly gaining yards (over 50% success rates)

Deserving, but not getting my vote: Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson. Leads the AFC in yards and is gaining 4.9 per carry. But he's still a boom or bust back (20th in success rate, behind both Addai and Rhodes) and has fumbled 4 times. Despite the flaws DYAR recognizes the greatness, but not quite as much as the 3 NFC backs ahead of him.

3rd Back: DeAngelo Williams.

Williams has finally broken out into the back he was expected to be when he was drafted ahead of Joseph Addai, Maurice Jones Drew, Jerious Norwood and Leon Washington. He gets the nod over Peterson because of his edge in YPC, DYAR, DVOA, recieving and having zero fumbles to Peterson's 4.

But, but, but... Micheal Turner, Matt Forte

Turner has racked up a pile of yards and 13 TDs, but only because he leads the league in carries. He's getting a mediocre 4.3 per carry while being inconsistant (16th in success rate). Forte is the same story with less TDs and more inconsistancy (29th in success rate of 41 backs)

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Comments

Good analysis, but

there is absolutely no way Michael Turner does not make the Pro Bowl

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by Brad Wells on Dec 5, 2008 2:37 PM EST reply actions

my ballot

I’m not voting for him.

and the NFC race is packed. Williams probably won’t make it, but who gets knocked out for Turner, Peterson or Jacobs?

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Big Ten's leading Rusher, Leads FBS
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Dec 5, 2008 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Shouldn't be Jacobs

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Dec 5, 2008 3:11 PM EST up reply actions

the shame of the falcons...

they will be really good next year, and they will have ruined their starting running back in the process. They have a great backup (he could probably start for some teams) and they just seem to avoid giving norwood carries. As someone that owns Turner on a few teams, I don’t mind seeing him get 28 carries a game, but he’s had a bunch of 24 for 58 type games… just running him into a brickwall for no reason.

The other thing is, he doesn’t catch the ball, at all. I dont think he blocks much. He’s just a runner. And if I’m gonna send a runner to the pro bowl, its gonna be AP. And he needs to go over DeAngelo Williams :P

by Nideak on Dec 5, 2008 2:49 PM EST reply actions

I'm not getting into a fight over Williams vs Peterson

It’s close

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Big Ten's leading Rusher, Leads FBS
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Dec 5, 2008 2:56 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah,

Its probably closer than I give it credit to be. I’m not a big Williams’ guy. Just feels to me like he took advantage of a wonderful stretch of rush defenses to play against (From week 5 to 13 he played: KC, TB (hard), NO, ARI (So hard to tell, one day they look good against the run, the next, nope.. but we’ll say they are hard), BYE, OAK, DET, ATL, GB.

And everytime I see AP touch the ball, he does something special… But yeah, the NFC just has a lot of great talent this year in a lot of positions. Funny how two of the 3 on your AFC ballot are rookies. 2 rookies and a guy that was left for dead.

Good eye on catching Turner and Forte, though. I havent looked at their DVOA numbers, but just looking at touches and yards, you can tell they are a product of being over 50% of their offense. Forte, for goodness sakes, leads his team in carries AND targets. Thats insane.

by Nideak on Dec 5, 2008 3:21 PM EST up reply actions

Peterson defies the "boom or bust" label

He changes the whole defense when he’s on the field. To use the baseball analogy, he’s only started “busting” when teams stop pitching to him. You get a guy who, every time he steps into the backfield, can go the distance. And he’s not just a speed guy. You saw him against the bears, turning 3-yards runs into first downs. To vote for DeAngelo Williams over him is a crime, and Williams is having a great year.

by slash196 on Dec 6, 2008 2:45 AM EST reply actions