Strength of Schedule through Week 13

by mgrex03 on Dec 5, 2008 5:33 PM EST in Analysis Comment 13 comments

There was a claim made earlier today that the Titans have the 4th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. I also saw this same claim over at MCM earlier in the week, complete with a link to the "2008 Strength of Schedule". However, there is one problem with these claims:

They are using last year's records.

This site has been up, presumably, since early January. The number of wins/losses for each team tipped me off, as well as the lack of a tie anywhere, so I checked it out. I figured I'd look at what the real strength of schedule for each team is, just based on Opponents Win % from 2008. This isn't perfect, and I may do a little more data analysis using Opponents Opponents Win % (that isn't a typo). I figured to go easy first.

Here's the Strength of Schedule for 2008, through Week 13:

Team	W	L	T	Win %	Team	W	L	T	Win %
Bengals	91	52	1	0.635	Bears	72	71	1	0.503
Browns	82	61	1	0.573	Patriots	72	72	0	0.500
Chiefs	81	63	0	0.563	Ravens	70	71	3	0.497
Lions	81	63	0	0.563	Texans	71	72	1	0.497
Packers	81	63	0	0.563	Steelers	66	75	3	0.469
Chargers	80	64	0	0.556	Falcons	66	77	1	0.462
Rams	79	64	1	0.552	Buccaneers	66	78	0	0.458
Seahawks	76	67	1	0.531	Cowboys	65	77	2	0.458
Colts	75	69	0	0.521	Dolphins	66	78	0	0.458
Cardinals	74	69	1	0.517	Giants	65	77	2	0.458
Jaguars	74	69	1	0.517	Broncos	65	79	0	0.451
Redskins	74	69	1	0.517	Panthers	65	79	0	0.451
Raiders	74	70	0	0.514	49ers	64	79	1	0.448
Saints	74	70	0	0.514	Jets	64	79	1	0.448
Vikings	74	70	0	0.514	Titans	58	85	1	0.406
Eagles	73	70	1	0.510	Bills	54	90	0	0.375

Some thoughts:

Our Week 14 opponent, Cincinnati, has had the toughest schedule so far this season, by 9 games, over the 2nd toughest, the Browns. That's pretty astounding. This week will close the gap by 3 games, but it still be a very tough schedule.
The most wins of any team with a tougher schedule than the Colts is 5, which is the Packers. On the flip side, the 49ers have had a fairly easy schedule, and still haven't won 5 games.
There are the Titans, sitting at 31st. And after this week, they'll creep even closer to having the easiest schedule in the league.
This list does not take into account any future games. This obviously means the Colts schedule will get easier over the next 3 weeks. I figured I should point this out now, to avoid confusion.

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tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiitansssssss

2nd Round home “upset”?

by torontocoltsfan on Dec 5, 2008 6:28 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sure buddy

So we had an easy schedule. We also won 11 games.

In case you didn’t notice, we beat the Bears at Soldier Field, you lost to them at Lucas Oil. We beat the Packers in Nashville and you
got absolutely creamed by them in GreenBay. We also beat the Colts at home in Prime Time.

Here’s your chance to whine about your injuries and make excuses for your early season woes. What’s your excuse for barely scraping by the Browns?

by BeansCarter on Dec 5, 2008 8:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m pretty sure the refs beat the Packers in nashville. I watched that game, and I enjoyed watching Finnergan tackle Jennings while the ball was in the air in the 4th quarter and once again no flag thrown (put that against the Colts v Titans game where Marlin Jackson touched no one and the refs gave you guys an automatic first down). I have definitive proof that this was pass interference: the titans have turned into the Reggie Williams of defenses… after every play, good or bad, they do a little jig, they show off, they want the world to know how special they are, etc… The dude in question, the mugger, if you will, broke tradition, if for only one play, and meekly walked back to his corner, praying, successfully, I might add, that the refs continue to aid you to your second round demise.

Here’s your chance to put something where your mouth is (other than phallic objects) and we can have a friendly wager… the titans’ won’t make the super bowl, probably not the afccg.

by Nideak on Dec 5, 2008 8:35 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

blah blah blah

31-14 before a garbage time td. suck on that phallic object bitch. i’ll take that wager any day.

by hal41605 on Dec 6, 2008 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Colts led for a bigger chunk of the game than the Titans

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Big Ten's leading Rusher, Leads FBS
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Dec 6, 2008 2:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

all valid points

However, all that will be remembered are how the teams finish the season and what happens in the playoffs. In the end, the regular season is only about earning a playoff spot and being in the playoffs is only about winning the Super Bowl.

It would be a shock if the Titans don’t take the division, which is a huge reversal of roles. For that Fisher and the Titans should be congratulated. However, as the Colts have discovered several times, that first round bye week and the half-hearted end of the regular season leading up to it can be as much of a curse as a blessing.

How will things go this year? Only time will tell, but I like the Colt’s chances.

by jedye on Dec 5, 2008 9:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

see you in january :)

by torontocoltsfan on Dec 5, 2008 11:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Att Mgrex03

Did you remove the teams win and losses from that table? Because if you didn’t it really isn’t a surprise the 11-1 Titans have such a easy schedule.

It would then transform from 58-85-1 to 57-74-1 or something like that.

by jocre on Dec 6, 2008 4:59 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

That's still only .435

They had a very easy schedule either way.

by Jay Cutler's Barber on Dec 6, 2008 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They move up 1 spot to 30th

It really didn’t make much difference at all (49ers fell below them).

The Colts did move up to 5th toughest.

by mgrex03 on Dec 6, 2008 12:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

so when are you guys gonna thank us

for juicing your strength of schedule stats? by the time we have played you twice, you will be getting a 30-2 or 28-4 or at worst 26-4 added in there thanks to us.

are you gonna post this again in 2 weeks once indy’s strength of schedule plummets from playing cinci and detroit back to back?

as of right now the difference between the titans and colts are:
titans have played: cinci, kc, nyj, det, colts
colts have played: ne, pit, sd, cleveland, titans

pretty big difference there, but by the end of the season, the differences will be:
titans: colts (8-4) twice, nyj (8-4), kc(2-10)
colts: titans (11-1) twice, ne (7-5), sd (5-8)

so basically by the end of the season, the respective scheds will cancel out with the exception of the diff between 1st and 2nd in afc est, 2 and 4th in afc west plus the fact that, again, the colts will get a big bump from playing the titans twice.

by hal41605 on Dec 7, 2008 12:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Sure thing

My argument wasn’t that the Colts will play a tougher schedule than the Titans. Only 2 games are different at the end of the year, like you said, so it is pretty obvious they won’t be much different.

So far, however, the Colts have played a much tougher schedule. And the Titans schedule has been very easy, so far.

I wanted to dispel the myth that the Titans have the 4th toughest schedule, because it just isn’t true.

by mgrex03 on Dec 7, 2008 12:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

and

the colts have played the texans twice while the titans have played to jags twice. though those are pretty even and will obviously cancel out in the end

by hal41605 on Dec 7, 2008 12:22 PM EST reply actions 0 recs