Reliving Super Bowl XLI

by mgrex03 on Feb 18, 2008 2:02 PM EST in Analysis

Kelvin Hayden showing signs of the future

I started watching last year's Super Bowl a couple weeks ago, and finally got around to watching the last 3 quarters, which, as everyone here knows, was a complete domination by the Colts. I was making notes as I watched it again, and here's what I wrote (most of these are statistics related):

The Colts set an NFL record after the second quarter by scoring in all 14 quarters (at that point) in the playoffs. They scored in each of the final 2 quarters to make it an even 16. Back to present day, this streak is still active and goes back to the third quarter of the Steelers game in '05. That's 21 straight quarters with a score. For the record, the Patriots had a streak of 19 straight quarters snapped in the first quarter of the SD game this year.
If you want an example of QB Rating not being a reasonable stat to go by, I have one for you:
- Manning: 18/27, 198 yds 1 TD / 1 INT - Rating: 80.5
- Grossman: 6/8, 32 yds 1TD / 0 INT - Rating: 120.1
I don't think I really need to explain this one.
Update [2008-2-18 7:55:23 by mgrex03]:These are first half numbers. Sorry for the confusion.
Phil Simms is very good at what he does. Usually when I'm watching a game I either have Bob Lamey on via Sirius, or I'm so consumed in the game I don't pay any attention to what the announcers are saying. On more than one occasion Simms talked about why a certain play worked, including both offensive and defensive movements that caused it. He also made it very easy to understand.
ProTrade.com has a feature on its website where you can get the win probability at any point in a game. It's pretty cool to look at throughout the season. They came up with the 5 most important plays in Super Bowl XLI, based on Win Probability swing. The #1 play was the INT returned for a touchdown by Kelvin Hayden, with a swing of 22%. This graph shows how the win probability swung throughout the game.

A programming note for those of you with NFL Network: Thursday night they are showing the shortened replay of Super Bowl XLI, then the hour long "America's Game" on the Colts from last season, then a round table discussion with Dungy and 4 of his old assistants. They also start their Combine coverage on Thursday as well. I apologize to BBS and everyone else who doesn't have the NFL Network, as it is a great channel.

0 recs | Comment 23 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

XLI

Yes the NFL Network is great. I will be one of the lucky ones reliving our SB win Thursday night and can't wait until we hoist the Lombardi Trophy again.

IN POLIAN I TRUST

by colt44 on Feb 18, 2008 2:59 PM EST 0 recs

BBS, where are you getting

Manning and Grossman numbers from? Those were not their final numbers for the game, these were.

Manning 25-38 247 yds 1 Td 1 INT 81.8 rating

Grossman 20-28 165 yds 1 TD 2 INTs 68.1 rating

I think the qb rating was pretty dead on, which is why Rhoads should have been MVP and not Manning.

by Terry on Feb 18, 2008 3:41 PM EST 0 recs

gojaijga

Learn to read, BBS didn't write this article.

by KingRichard on Feb 18, 2008 4:30 PM EST up 0 recs

terry

the person that posted this is actually not BBS, it is mgrex.

and I'm pretty sure those stats come from the first half of play? that's what i was assuming.

by yellowsnow on Feb 18, 2008 4:30 PM EST up 0 recs

my bad on the author

I should look to see who wrote the post, bad habit I'm hoping to break. I do it on BTB as well.

Anyway, why would mrgrex post the halftime numbers only? That makes no sense to me.

by Terry on Feb 18, 2008 4:59 PM EST up 0 recs

Those are halftime numbers

They made a point during the broadcast to bring it up, which is why I found it interesting.

by mgrex03 on Feb 18, 2008 7:49 PM EST up 0 recs

Manning MVP

With all due respect to Rhodes, what is never mentioned in the MVP argument is that Manning (according to Tom Moore) called every play in the Super Bowl from the line of scrimmage. Look how long we controlled the ball, and how we always had the correct play called against their defense (without the benefit of video or stealing signs). Save for the one interception, Manning was flawless in his decision making. As Colts fans, we sometimes take Manning's brilliance for granted. I understand why the talking heads and other football fans only look at stats in making the argument for another player, but as Colts fans who know how the offense is operated and Manning's value to it, we should not fall into that trap. The reason that Rhodes and Adaii were able to make those plays is because Manning put them in position to make those plays (not to take anything away from their performance).

Just another reason why Manning is the best QB in the game. I don't believe that the Giants would have been able to put the type of pressure on Manning that they put on Brady. Manning (Peyton, not to be confused for Eli Manning, who won the Super Bowl this year) would have been adjusting coverage on every play in an effort to combat the blitz. Brady did nothing and made no adjustments to combat the blitz. It will be interesting to see how Brady comes back next year. Now that teams know how to beat them (put pressure on him), let's see if he can do what Manning has been doing for years.

Now, I'm sure that Pats fans trolling this site will immediately bring up the Pittsburgh game. Because of that game, Manning took the off-season and learned to throw on the run and, in general, learned how to beat blitzes. Going into the Super Bowl, everybody was saying how the Colts would have problems with the Bear defense. Manning had that defense on their heels the entire game. That is why he is the MVP of the Super Bowl win.

by Blueisgood on Feb 18, 2008 4:49 PM EST up 0 recs

if what you're saying is true

then why didn't Manning adjust coverages in the loss to the Steelers 2 years ago to combat their blitzes?

BTW, the Giants weren't really blitzing, their down linemen were just flat out beating the Pats O line.

by Terry on Feb 18, 2008 5:02 PM EST up 0 recs

Sacks in Super bowl

At least one of those sacks was by a linebacker (Kawika Mitchell). The Giants blitzed on numerous occasions. A successful blitz can also cause a hurried throw resulting in an incompletion. Brady was not able to slow down the blitz. BTW, the Giants were also moving lineman around to give Brady different looks. Manning has been playing against that for years and he makes adjustments to it before the play starts. Teams that play against Manning will tell you that it is much a mental game as a physical game.

by Blueisgood on Feb 18, 2008 6:38 PM EST up 0 recs

throw on the run??

I've seen Manning throw on the run as often as I've seen Brady look tough taking a sack.....hardly ever.

by Terry on Feb 18, 2008 5:04 PM EST up 0 recs

Have you played football?

Do you really think that "making adjustments" means "I'm going to run and throw the ball"? No, it means adjusting the step back, slide the line's protection, keeping a back in for protection, changing the hot route to allow for quicker release. That's what Manning does, not just wink and smile when the camera comes his way.

by Bullard47 on Feb 18, 2008 6:19 PM EST up 0 recs

thats not running with the football as

you stated, its manuvering around within the pocket, which Manning and Brady do quite well.

Neither one, however, runs worth a damn so lets make that perfectly clear.

by Terry on Feb 19, 2008 2:30 PM EST up 0 recs

Opening game against Giants last year

Watch the opening game against the Giants last year. Manning made several good throws on the run to counter the Giants pressure. That was the first game after the Pittsburgh loss. Manning spent the off-season practicing throwing on the run and it paid off in that game.

By the way, if you are able to spot those blitzes, you will not have to throw on the run as much.

by Blueisgood on Feb 18, 2008 6:24 PM EST up 0 recs

Don't worry about this Bozo

As much as Terry comes over here to worship the Cowboys before us, you'd think he'd have more sense than to demean Peyton's abilities on a site full of Colts fans. But it is Terry.

Truth be told, Romo could be a fun discussion here, and the response from Terry would be predictable.

by coltsfanawalt on Feb 18, 2008 9:29 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm not demeaning Manning at all

I just stated a fact that the guy can't run to save his life. You know it, I know it, the entire football world knows it.

Manning might have many skills as a QB, but athletic ability isn't one of them.

by Terry on Feb 19, 2008 2:33 PM EST up 0 recs

What are we talking about here?

Are we talking about Manning running the ball like a RB in a desperate situation, or are we talking about Manning throwing the ball while he is running?

I think everyone here agrees that running isn't Peyton's strong point. But what he did do the year before the SB win, was work on his accuracy of throwing while he was running. And it's really helped him in some tight situations.

by yellowsnow on Feb 19, 2008 3:52 PM EST up 0 recs

I'm talking about situations where

a QB is blitzed heavily or pass protection breaks down and the QB has to escape the pocket and either throw on the run to either his left or right, outside the tackle box or hash marks, or simply run and attmept to gain a first down, run out of bounds or slide.

It any of those scenarios, the QB needs to be athletic to be successful in making a play. QBs like Rothlisberger, Romo and (young) Favre can make those plays, guys like Manning and Brady can't on a consistent basis.

Within the pocket, nobody is close to being as good as Manning or Brady, however, when the pocket breaks down and they're running for their lives, they become very ordinary because they're not very athletic or fast.

by Terry on Feb 19, 2008 5:14 PM EST up 0 recs

I agree

I agree in a sense. Manning has definitely gotten better in this situation in recent years, albeit he doesn't ever run; he almost always goes straight sideline and throws it away. Having a guy like Romo is nice for rushing first downs..in those few situations you need him to.

by yellowsnow on Feb 19, 2008 5:37 PM EST up 0 recs

asdf

I agree that QB rating is a good stat as well. Even those numbers support that claim decently..

Manning completed 66% for 200 yrds, 1 td and 1 pick. Rating of 80 seems a little low, but its still not as good as Grossman's line of 75% completed for 40 yrds and a td. Granted, the Bears only threw it 8 times, that's not Grossman's fault..Maybe the stats were taken after the first qtr?

by yellowsnow on Feb 18, 2008 7:54 PM EST up 0 recs

Simms

Phil Simms is a massive tool. Whenver I hear James Brown say, "Let's go to Jim Nance and Phil Simms for kickoff of the Colts vs. xxx game," a little part of me dies inside. I find his comments extremely boring and obvious and wish I had a radio that wasn't way ahead of the television so I could drown him out. Anyone know how I can do that?

by DoTheMathis98 on Feb 18, 2008 4:24 PM EST 0 recs

ihjiajag

I agree, Simms is a tool.

by KingRichard on Feb 18, 2008 4:30 PM EST up 0 recs

qb rating and pressure

first, the qb rating IS a good stat. yeah it isn't perfect and sometimes it doesn't show what has happened but wtf stats are always perfect? yards aren't, TDs aren't, INTs aren't, wins (when talking about a single player) aren't. The fact is IN GENERAL, a qb who has a high rating generally had a good game or season or career. Rarely do you see a guy with a lower rating who did well and vise versa.

People just have no clue the rating takes into account the statistical categories of passing. Again, there are occasions where the rating isn't a good indicator but the majority of the time it is and if the rating is going to be meaningless then so should EVERY stat.

As for Manning vs pressure, it is pretty plain as day he is better than Brady vs pressure and no doubt in my mind he'd have done far better vs the Giants than tom did. Manning did better vs the Steelers in 05 than Brady did vs the same type of pressure with the giants and it is clear that Peyton has really worked on his throwing when under pressure/vs blitzes so the gap between them is quite large now. All one needs to do to see how good Manning is now vs pressure is see that some of his best throws the last 2 seasons were when he was about to be hit or had 45 guys in his face. That whole game winning drive vs the Pats in the afc champ game had manning being hit on every throw yet there he was making perfect throw after perfect throw. The TD pass to Wayne in the superbowl? bam, he got hammered by Tommy Harris.

There's no doubt in my mind that Peyton is clearly better at throwing under pressure. He used to be mediocre back in the day but he's one of the best now, if not the best.

by Rob L on Feb 18, 2008 5:14 PM EST 0 recs