Who the Hell will they pick? (NFL Draft 2008 Edition)

by Brad Wells on Feb 20, 2008 9:50 AM EST in Colts Analysis

With the Combine kicking off today, it is now officially time to start obsessing about a date in late April that almost rivals the day the Super Bowl is played on.

That's right. It's time to get all bug-eyed and jittery over the NFL Draft.

This marks the third years Stampede Blue has covered the draft for the Colts. In 2006, I said Addai would be the Colts' first pick. Last year, I said Justin Harrell, but would not be surprised if Gonzalez got picked. This year, with the absence of a first round pick, it is a total crap shoot. So, as I wind down the Off-Season 2008 Needs series, I will now segue into my yearly Who the Hell will they pick? series.

Surprisingly, this year I think there is a very good chance that several "Indiana Grown" products will make their way to the Blue Shoe. The Colts have a long history of taking players from the SEC (Peyton Manning, Joseph Addai, David Thornton, etc.) or, more specifically, Syracuse University (Marvin, Dwight, Josh Thomas). This year the Big Ten could yield a serious crop of new talent, with much of that talent coming from Indiana colleges. Part of this series will focus on three Indiana grown players: IU's James Hardy, Purdue's Cliff Avril, and Notre Dame's Trevor Laws. All three have an excellent chance of getting drafted by the Colts in 2008, and all three fill very clear needs for this team.

I personally feel that Avril and Laws are more likely to get picked than Hardy, who will likely go in the first round. Avril and Laws are perfect Cover 2 specimens with non-stop motors, high character, and speed, speed, speed! As the Combine moves forward, we will keep an eye on how these three perform.

Also, speaking of Mock Drafts, check out Bullard47's in the diaries. One thing Bullard47 brings up is the prospect of multiple compensation picks for the Colts due to all the free agent loses last year. This is a part of the Draft I always forget. It's likely the Colts will get several second day picks, and Bill Polian always works his magic in the second day.

Small side note: This is the last year the NFL Scouting Combine will reside at the RCA Dome. Next year, it will move to the new Lucas Oil Stadium.

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compensation picks

I do not believe they get anything this year for the restricted guys they lost last year...they already got the picks for those guys in last year's draft. David had a 4th round compensation, Gardner was a 3rd round. They had extra 3,4,5 round picks for the guys they lost although I do not know where the 5th rounder came from.

The only way they get picks this year is if they lose some of the restricted guys and judging by the list it may not be happening. I can see Giordano being picked up by someone if the Colts do not sign him...but I think they will.

by Rob L on Feb 20, 2008 10:41 AM EST reply actions

actually...

Compensatory picks are awarded for players lost in free agency the previous year. The only way the restricted comes into it... is if we were to put a restricted tender on them. If a team tries to sign them and we match the offer sheet, then that team must award us a draft pick corresponding to the tender level. That hasn't happened to us in a while.

As for compensatory picks, last year we got a couple of picks for Edge and Thorton's contracts. This year we'll get picks for Gardner and Harper signing w/ Tenn, and Rhodes signing with Oakland.

An interesting note... since the Titans made the playoffs, our compensatory picks for Harper and Gardner will be better than if the Browns had made it.

by the21eraser on Feb 20, 2008 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

I've been watching the mock drafts

and listing all the players that were slotted in as the Colts' pick

list with links to NFL.com profile
http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/great-profileslist.html

list with links to mock draft picked in/other profiles/my thoughts
http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com/2008/02/mock-indy-picks.html

my blog <http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com>

by shake n bake on Feb 20, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions

Avtually

I don't mean to nit-pick, but we actually got a fourth rounder for David because we tendered him, and then didn't match Saints' offer...

Interesting with thhe Titans reaching the Playoffs instead of the Browns.

Do you know what impact it will have?

From a 6th to a 4th?

by Aquabats on Feb 20, 2008 12:59 PM EST reply actions

You're right...

I forgot about David being tendered. That was the best thing that could have happened :)

The NFL is pretty tight lipped about exactly how they award the compensatory picks, but I'd guess we get a 4th rounder or two and a 5th.

Hopefully enough for Polian to find some gems. Unfortunately you can't trade these picks.

by the21eraser on Feb 20, 2008 4:00 PM EST up reply actions

It's like stealing

How can you not like getting compensatory picks? I mean, of the four guys for whom the Colts will get extra picks, only Rhodes and Harper were likely to have played a lot in '07. Hayden or Jackson were going to take David's job if he stuck around, and Gardner already lost his job during the '06 season. We can probably all agree that even though Harper remains useful, the two young corners were better in '07 than Harper and David in '06, at a lower cost. So, for essentially letting spare parts go, the Colts get low round picks. For other GMs that might not mean much, but BP is a genius at spotting hidden talent. Will these four picks pan out? I'd be willing to bet 1 or 2 of the 4 will stick. Even in a year without a #1 pick, the Colts may well end up with an excellent draft class.

The fault, dear Brutus, lies not in the stars, but in ourselves.

by Coltsfan58 on Feb 20, 2008 1:44 PM EST reply actions