Right after the last game at the RCA Dome I began thinking about how things might be different at Lucas Oil Stadium in 2008 and beyond.  My unscientific analysis of the Dome was that it helped the Colts to some degree (probably not easily quantified) owing to the noise and the surface.  I supposed, too, that like most kickers Adam Vinatieri was helped by kicking indoors.  The Colts have had a great home record, but that's because they're a great team.  How, if at all, will the Luke detract from or enhance the Colts' home field advantage?

The home field advantage is not a huge advantage.  Vegas typically values it at about 3 points, which is substantially less than 10% of the average number of points scored in an NFL game.  Since those 3 points are an average, some teams might have an even bigger advantage, and I assumed one of them would be the Colts.

The ways in which the new stadium might impact the Colts include:

Playing Surface.  One of the RCA Dome's most notable attributes was its fast surface.  The Colts have built their team on both sides of the ball on speed, probably in part reacting to their environment.  Whatever the surface in the Luke is, even if it is similar to rubberized surface of the RCA Dome, it is not likely to be as fast.  The chief reason is not the surface--even if it is exactly the same--but the weather.  Some of the games at Lucas Oil Stadium will be with the roof open (I suspect at least half, if not more) and any precipitation or wind dropping the temperature may make the turf slower.  I would be interested to know if the Colts will have a consistent policy about when the roof is open and when it's closed.  When you get a new toy, you want to play with it, so I imagine the Colts will keep the roof open as often as they can reasonably justify doing so.

The Colts have undoubtedly considered the need for speed, so I imagine they have insisted the turf be as close to as fast as it was in the Dome as possible.  And, looking at the '07 statistics, only 11 of the Colts' 28 sacks were in the RCA Dome (2 others were in the Georgia Dome) so performance on grass was nearly identical to performance on turf.  But, it wouldn't surprise me if the number of sacks remains relatively constant at home or even declines.  The RCA Dome was probably the ideal environment for this team, and I wonder if the Luke will be as good.

As an aside, the Colts' sacks totaled 14 through the New England game, 2 in the San Diego game (but I don't immediately know if Freeney was hurt before these sacks, or after them) and 12 in the last 7 games.  The high was 4 against the Ravens in Week 14.  The Colts recorded no sacks against Carolina, Oakland and Houston (Week 16).  Any increased sacks at home or on the road are probably going to be a function of improved health for Freeney, Mathis, McFarland and Brock, not Lucas Oil's surface.

Noise.  Just like the playing surface, the RCA probably represented the best environment the Colts could have asked for, extremely loud and intimate.  Many sportswriters considered it the loudest place in the league.  Colts' opponents frequently jumped because the snap count couldn't be heard.  One false start often seemed to cause the crowd to be even louder, and louder longer.  In a larger space like the Luke--and especially when the roof is open--I doubt the noise will be as deafening.

Because this seemed to be an advantage, I bet this hasn't escaped the Colts, either.  Seattle apparently constructed its stadium to maximize crowd noise.  Perhaps the Colts have done likewise.  I will be surprised if Lucas Oil Stadium is as loud.  Perhaps if we start seeing few opponent false starts next year, we'll know the answer.  Decreased home sacks might also be telling, since the Dome's crowd noise might have given the Colts' rush a half-count or so head start.  In light of the fact that many of us agree the Colts need an improved pass rush to dominate, it certainly won't do to have sacks decline.

The Effect On Kicking.  In 2007, Adam Vinatieri kicked off 91 times, with 9 touchbacks.  His rate of touchbacks was 9.9%, 10th in the AFC.  His average kickoff distance was 65 yards (4th in the AFC), so he kicked it on average to the goal line.  Owing to coverage troubles, the Colts allowed an average return of 25 yards, 15th in the AFC.  Miami allowed 25.8 yards per kickoff return (unfortunately, the Dolphins' average kick distance was a paltry 57.9 yards).

Of Vinatieri's 9 touchbacks, 7 were at the Dome.  This confirmed my anecdotal observation that usually he kicked the ball farther inside than out.  The reason is likely the weather, both in how moisture and wind affect the flight of the ball and in how well Adam could plant his foot to drive the ball.  Again, if the Luke is open part of the year, I would expect his home kicks to be more like they were on the road, i.e., slightly shorter.

For comparison, in '06 Adam's average kickoff for 73 kickoffs was 65.3 yards (4th in the AFC) with 10 touchbacks (13.7%, 9th in the AFC), and the Colts' average return allowed was 26 yards.  Without the home/road splits, my assumption is that based on the similarity of the two years' data, Adam was probably kicking a little longer at home, with a few more touchbacks.  The similarity of the numbers also suggests whatever injury he endured in '07 didn't affect kickoffs as much as field goals.  

Adam was 23-29 kicking field goals in 2007; he was 26-29 in '06, with no misses at home.  In '07 he was 11-14 at home, 12-15 on the road.  He was 11-14 on grass and 12-15 on turf (he was 1-1 in Atlanta).  Having Lucas Oil Stadium open might drive his accuracy percentage down slightly, as virtually all kickers tend to have higher (sometimes only marginally) FG rates indoors.

My initial thought was that these three factors might mean a significant diminishment of the Colts' home field advantage.  As I tried to summarize, however, I realize a better way to characterize any change is that it is likely to be modest.  Lucas Oil Stadium might be a touch slower, a few decibels less loud and maybe windier and wetter (at times).  How this will all play out is one of the storylines to look forward to in '08.  Now, if the first game would just get here...