Draftmas 2008

by the21eraser on Mar 29, 2008 7:51 PM EDT in Colts Analysis

Dear Santa Polian,

In just 4 short weeks you'll make the yearly slide down the chimney of the Colts complex with our shiny new draft-picks and undrafted free agents. It seems like only a couple of days ago I was asking myself, "Ugoh who?"

I know you're really busy and probably get tons of letters, but please hear me out. All I want for Draftmas is a new STARTING LEFT DEFENSIVE END.

Everybody just settle down... I know you're all big Robert Mathis fans, but just hear me out. Robert Mathis is not a full-time starter in the NFL. He generally plays well, but he is what he is... a situational pass rusher and a mediocre full-time defensive end.

In the two seasons prior to him becoming a full time starter (2004 and 2005) he registered 22 sacks. In his two seasons since becoming a full-time starter he's only registered 16 1/2. Now I already know what you're thinking, "This guy's crazy!", "Mathis is a great defensive end", "Stats lie", but just listen. The problem is, he's worn out by the time we reach a passing down and he's not effective as he could be coming off the bench. Since starting he hasn't been able consistently beat the single coverage that Freeney's presence creates for him.

Speaking of Freeney, before his injury many people were wondering why the best pass rusher in the NFL wasn't generating very many sacks. Well it's pretty hard when Mathis is tired and you can double and sometimes triple Freeney.

Santa Polian, it's time to go back to the days where the Colts pass rush was feared. When teams would run the ball down by 21 points because they were too scared to throw. You remember the days, when we were leading the NFL in sacks? When Byron Leftwich and Steve McNair's backups knew they were going to play due to injury?

If we've learned anything from the 2007 season, it's that you can't ever have enough talent on the Defensive Line (See Colts season down the drain, Giants win Super Bowl with amazing pass rush for further reference).

Honestly, I don't care who you get. Get someone who can stop the run. Someone who can step up and play at a high level if an injury occurs, but more importantly, someone who can give Mathis and Freeney a breather during the game without a drop-off in production.

The Super Bowl could depend on it.

P.S. - Bring back the days of the 2 headed monster at Running Back. Get us someone who's not afraid to make a block on a linebacker, and someone who isn't afraid to catch the ball.

Enjoy the milk and cookies,

Mr. Eraser.

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Comments

Agreed

BBS and I have debated this point many times.

by MasterRWayne on Mar 29, 2008 9:21 PM EDT reply actions

Mathis

I like him. I don't want a new starting DE. I want a very good DE, so he (this new guy) can be an option we clearly don't have.

Walk on, walk on With hope in your heart And you'll never walk alone You'll never walk alone

by MerryGoByeBye on Mar 29, 2008 9:25 PM EDT reply actions

There is no way I'm settling down.

I rarely post, but I couldn't ignore the stupidity of this piece.

You post this coming off a season where our defense carried us, ranking number one in points and number two in yards. I'm aware that there are many reasons our defense was so good this season, but for you, as a poster on a Colts Blog, to call out Robert Mathis makes me question whether you even watch Colts games.

You even try to support your ignorance with stats. Here's where how he ranks on the Colts defense over the last four years (remember he played only 13 games in 2007 and 2005):

Sacks:
2007 - 1st
2006 - 1st
2005 - 1st
2004 - 2nd

Tackles:
2007 - 10th
2006 - 5th
2005 - 7th
2004 - 12th

Fumbles Forced:
2007 - 1st
2006 - 1st
2005 - 1st
2004 - 1st

Fumbles Recovered:
2007 - 5th
2006 - 2nd
2005 - 0
2004 - 1st

So, maybe we're not disillusioned to think Robert Mathis might be more than just "a situational pass rusher and a mediocre full-time defensive end".

I'm not sure whether you're just trying to get a reaction or if you actually think so lowly of Mathis. To think that we'll find a better defensive end in the late 2nd round is a slap in the face to a player that is already underappreciated.

by baptie on Mar 29, 2008 9:39 PM EDT reply actions

However

I do think that we need to add a player to our defensive line. I think that the type of player we need is another in the mold of Raheem Brock. A versatile player who can play DT in passing situations and DE in running situations.

by baptie on Mar 29, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions

I think...

Mathis is a great pass rusher. He should be used the most effective way possible... as a pass rusher.

by the21eraser on Mar 29, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

I think....

Freeney is a great pass rusher. He should be used the most effective way possible... as a pass rusher.

Umenyiora is a great pass rusher. He should be used the most effective way possible... as a pass rusher.

Jason Taylor is a great pass rusher. He should be used the most effective way possible... as a pass rusher.

Do you see the flaw in your argument at all?

by baptie on Mar 29, 2008 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions

I think your argument is also flawed.

His team stats are better than Freeney's in many ways. Do you believe he is better than Freeney? If so, I see no point in discussing this further, as we would deeply differ.

Do you believe that Freeney lines up against the best offensive lineman, plus gets double-teamed, while Mathis benefits from the ensuing single blocker who is not as good at blocking as the LT on Freeney? If so, then the stats are somewhat skewed and Freeney deserves some of that credit. BTW, this seems to be the sentiment of Mr. Polian and Coach Dungy.

Also, some of those dominant years you listed were before Mathis started at LE, thus supporting the premise of this article. Mathis could produce similarly effective stats in a situational role, while another end could be effective on the running downs to keep Mathis fresh for obvious passing scenarios. As your stats show, he was equally as productive that way.

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 30, 2008 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

Having said that,

I agree with the sentiment expressed by many below. The best approach would be to get a third great pass rushind DE and mix him in with Freeney and Mathis. Keep them all fresh.

One certainty. We sure missed Freeney at the end of last season.

by coltsfanawalt on Mar 30, 2008 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes and No

While I do not think that Mathis is better than Freeney, I think they are closer than most give Mathis for. I understand that Freeney sees more doubles than Mathis, but again people underestimate the amount of doubles that Mathis sees. Also, it is more difficult to sack a quarterback from the strongside than the blindside.

I know it sounds like I'm dismissing the impact Freeney has on the opponents gameplan, but I do see how often a back or TE is forced to stay and double Freeney.

The stats that Mathis put up in 04-05 were also against worse opponents than we've been facing since his sack numbers have 'fallen off'.

The basic point I want to make is that Robert Mathis starting is not a problem that needs to be addressed.

by baptie on Mar 30, 2008 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I believe that your looking in the right direction

of getting another pass rusher. The only problem with your assessment is replacing Mathis. Mathis looked sluggish in the last part of the season because:
a) Once Freeney went down the attention was payed to him limiting his ability to get to the QB

b) During the playoffs he was not fully healed from his injury

We just need some depth at those positions who can be situational pass rusher. If we get that im sure Mathis will be a lot more fresh and effective and will put us back in the top tier of the league in total sacks.

Thats why I recommend that Polian draft Marcus Howard either with the first pick or in the 3rd round. Getting Trevor Laws can also solve this problem and give us a new dimension of pass rush with a middle presence to complement our edge rush

by metalmilitia @ Stampede Blue on Mar 29, 2008 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

Why not use Keyunta Dawson at DE too?

He's regarded as a Mathis clone yet the coaches have him playing tackle instead of end. If speed is Dawson's greatest asset, isn't that speed wasted at DT, which I thought was a position requiring primarily brute strength? How is he supposed to collapse the pocket by pushing back guards who, on the average, outweigh him by more than fifty pounds? I suppose then he's a DT for running plays, but why not let him get in the game more often at DE instead?

The other concern, about which I think everyone is whistling in the graveyard, is that Freeney returns to play at 100% next year. If his injury has in fact diminished his skills or made him more susceptible to further injury, it's going to be a long, horrible season.

by N Colter on Mar 29, 2008 11:26 PM EDT reply actions

Valid concerns

Everything I've read about the Lisfranc injury has led me to believe that it is not a easy or guaranteed recovery.

With that said, our defense can overcome the loss of Freeney. It will not be the top defense in the league without him, but I don't think that the loss of Freeney would keep us from contending.

by baptie on Mar 29, 2008 11:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Well

The reason last year we used Dawson at DT was just because of the injuries on the line to Brock. I would love to see the Colts draft 3 or 4 defensive linemen in this draft. This line with Freeney could be one of the best in the league, especially somehow we got Laws and Howard.

coltshomer.blogspot.com

by Colts Homer on Mar 30, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Too far

If Santa Polian can find a DE that's better than Mathis in the second round then I'd be happy to have Mathis move back to being a situational guy, but don't you think that's a whole lot to ask of Santa Polian. You're a little kid asking for a pony. It's would be awesome if you got one, but it's not happening (probably not, Polian is pretty amazing).

Freeney and Mathis both get worn down going against tackles with 50ish pounds on them all game. A 3rd passer rusher is a need for the Colts, but I can't understand all these people that want to make radical changes to the best defense the Colts have had in a long long time. They are bringing back all the starters from the #1 scoring D in the league. All they need is depth (primarily a 3rd pass rusher and a nickelback).

my blog <http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com>

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2008 12:25 AM EDT reply actions

Too hung up on stats

Respectfully, shake n bake, you're too hung up on stats, which don't always indicate a team's true value.

I'd gladly trade the Colts D being statistically in the middle of the pack in every defensive category if they could put terror on Tom Brady's face the way the Giants D did in the SB.

This D, #1 or otherwise, scares no one and you're right, the Colts may be too far down in the draft for Polian to find some hitters.

Plus, the #1 defense has two major components that are extremely fragile: Freeney and Sanders. Absent those two (and who can rule out for sure they won't get hurt in 2008), the rest are pretty dickless (remember Volek's drive?).

So let's hope the Colts draft is heavy on defense and Santa Polian outdoes himself and has his best draft ever...

by N Colter on Mar 30, 2008 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions

How exactly are

a high ranked statistical D and one that scares a QB mutually exclusive, if anything they go together.
The Giants led the league in sacks. They were in the top half of the league in most categories and would have been an elite D if they're secondary wasn't awful.

The Colts had Brady frustrated and the Pats nearly put away in the regular season until the two weakness I cited above killed them, Freeney and Mathis wore down and nickelback Tim Jennings was made Randy Moss's bitch.

Sanders=Fragile, yes, true, unfortunately

but Freeney had missed one game in his entire career before that pretty freakish injury (his foot got stepped on just as he went into his spin move). Freeney had played in 88 of a possible 89 games before that point.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FreeDw00.htm

Finally if you're going to call me out for statgeekery you should probably wait until I cite a stat more complex than which defense gave up the least points.

my blog <http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com>

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2008 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Brady

I seem to remember Tom Brady getting consistently knocked around and pressured in the game against Indy back in November by the Colts defense. Heck, the first offensive play of the game was a sack on Brady by ROBERT MATHIS. It was only when Indy lost all its WRs did the Patriots win the game. Remember, the scenario at the end of that game was nearly identical to the one Eli Manning faced in the Super Bowl. The only difference was Peyton was throwing to Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe while Eli had Plaxico Burress and David Tyree. Also, the Colts could have iced the game on one third down play, which was a dropped pass by Moorehead.

Again, there is a reason why Moorehead is no longer on the Colts.

Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by Brad Wells on Mar 30, 2008 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Moorehead

Did he get released? They still have him on the roster....

I hope he is gone.

by Bullard47 on Mar 30, 2008 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions

He was a UFA

and last I heard hadn't been resigned. Hopefully it stays that way. I wouldn't be surprised (but I would be disappointed) if they signed him to have in training camp.

my blog <http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com>

by shake n bake on Mar 30, 2008 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions