A Few More Notes on the Predictor

I finished up my report over the course of yesterday, and I found out a little more information about the Colts season, and why they were 7-9 with my predictor.

  • Running the football contributed more to winning that passing the football did.  The Colts, obviously, rely on Manning for a heavy dose of yardage.  They were always on the top, or near the top level each week in passing stats.  The Win % went down considerably when they didn't run the ball as well as before.
  • The Colts never were above average in Time of Possession at any point in 2007.  I'm not sure why that is.  In 2006, it was painfully obvious, as teams ate up chunks of time running the football.  Last year, though, that wasn't the case.  The Colts only had 4 games with Time of Possession over 31 minutes.  ToP was a key factor in the model.

The most surprising finding from last season was Week 3 vs. the Texans.  The Texans had won 4 in a row (going back to 2006), and were above average in the four stats that had the biggest impact on winning in the model (Turnovers, Time of Possession, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards).  The Colts were below average in all 4 of these.  It was very lopsided.  Obviously the model needs some tweaking.  Here is a table with Win Probability for each of the Colts games last season:

Team Opponent Prediction Win Prob. Actual
Colts Saints Saints 65.9 Colts
Colts Titans Titans 70.5 Colts
Colts Texans Texans 93.1 Colts
Colts Broncos Broncos 50.4 Colts
Colts Buccaneers Colts 86.4 Colts
Colts Jaguars Colts 87.3 Colts
Colts Panthers Panthers 67.6 Colts
Colts Patriots Colts 64.9 Patriots
Colts Chargers Colts 70.8 Chargers
Colts Chiefs Colts 83.3 Colts
Colts Falcons Colts 54.7 Colts
Colts Jaguars Jaguars 65.4 Colts
Colts Ravens Colts 75 Colts
Colts Raiders Colts 70.8 Colts
Colts Texans Colts 78.2 Colts
Colts Titans Colts 84.9 Titans

Once the season got going, it predicted the Colts to win with much greater frequency.  Week 17 was obviously assuming the Colts would play the first team throughout the entire game.

As always, any suggestions you may have that might help out, let me know.  I'll be constantly updating throughout the summer, so it's in top form come September.


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