Predicting Records

by shake n bake on Jun 1, 2008 4:36 PM EDT

After the schedules come out there's always a flurry of win-loss predictions based on picking the winners of each individual game. I've always thought that was kind of dumb and subjective, even before you take into account how hard it is to now how well teams will play. Some games are obvious and would be a stunning upset others are difficult, could go either way and in my case at least are often decided in the interest making the final records turn out the way I expect them to. So last year I tried to use a method that was less dumb (but at least as if not more subjective). I ranked each game on a 1 to 7 scale:

1-I'm sure the visiting team will win
2-Visiting team probably wins
3-Leaning towards visiting team
4-No Idea
5-Leaning home
6-Probably home
7-Home wins

The games where I picked a winner I went 131-90 (59.3%) not bad, but I did pass on 25 of the hardest games to pick by giving them a 4.

To get records I averaged the my expected outcome certainty (separately for home and way since they would be opposites) and multiplied by 1.25 to get the records to fit a realistic spread, giving games above/below .500. Then rounded a bit to get the records in whole games. Last season I was off by an average of 3.4 games. I used the same method for this upcoming season and got this

AFC

16. Raiders 3-13
15. Ravens 4-12
14. Dolphins 4-12
13. Chiefs 6-10
12. Browns 6-10
11. Jets 7-9
10. (Tie) Bengals 7-9

10. (Tie) Titans 7-9

10. (Tie) Broncos 7-9

7. Bills 7-9
6. Texans 8-8
5. Steelers 10-6
4. Jaguars 10-6
3. Chargers 12-4
2. Patriots 13-3
1. Colts 14-2

NFC

16. Cardinals 5-11

15. (tie) 49ers 5-11
15. (tie) Lions 5-11

13. (tie) Bears 6-10
13. (tie) Falcons 6-10

11. Rams 7-9
10. Panthers 8-8
9. Saints 8-8
8. Redskins 8-8

7. Bucs 9-7 (make playoffs as NFC South Champ)

6. Vikings 10-6 (miss playoffs)

5. Seahawks 10-6
4. Eagles 11-5
3. Giants 11-5
2. Cowboys 11-5
1. Packers 11-5

These are completely subjective from me and I was off by as much as 7 games last year (Packers) I nailed the Colts at 13-3 though. So what do you guys think?

(if you want to try out predicting with the method I used e-mail me (Shake1n1bake@yahoo.com) and I'll send you the spread sheet that calculates the records from the 1-7 predictions).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

Tweet Comment 2 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I think the colts will go 13-3 again. Jacksonville will beat us once, now i dont know if it’s in florida or in indy. I have the feeling the Chargers will beat us and then I always try to throw in a wild card loss here, like if we pull all of our starters in the last week or two. 13-3 is my prediction.

by danorocks17 on Jun 1, 2008 11:16 PM EDT reply actions