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Which AFC South team improved the most

070310_dungy_vmed_330p

via Washington Post

It's always fun to speculate which team has done the most to unseat the Colts overlords of the AFC South. The reason it's fun is because the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans often go to such lengths to strengthen their teams each and every year only to get smacked down again and again by the Indy machine. As a result of their efforts, the Colts have gotten better and the collective improvement has made the AFC South the best division in football. Yes, I know the Giants won the Super Bowl and Dallas was 13-3 in 2007. Dallas also hasn't won a playoff game in 15 years, and the other NFC East playoff team (Washington) would get smoked by anyone in the AFC South, including a Sage Rosenfels-led Texans team. So please, spare me the NFC East talk. Yes, it's a good division; a GREAT division. It isn't the South.

Even with the South being so strong in 2007, I personally think most of the AFC South teams got better this off-season, with the exception of the Titans (more on them later). Aside from the AFC South having some of the best teams in football, they also have the best team bloggers in football. I'll freely admit that I am the agitator in our blogger division. Rarely do you see Jimmy writing articles about how Bob Sanders can't stay healthy, or Tim typing stories about how Indy's special teams play sucks. However, you are sure to see me writing a post either insulting Vince Young or criticizing the stupid draft moves of Gary Kubiak. I wouldn't do this if I didn't feel that guys like Tim, Chris, and Jimmy would not immediately call me "idiot" are debunk my claims with intelligent points with just a pinch of homerism. This is why we do what we do.

This is team blogging.

In this case, I think the Texans and Jaguars have bettered themselves since last season, with the Titans noticeably getting worse in the talent department. However, despite the changes (good or bad), none of these teams have done enough to unseat the Colts, who themselves have made great moves to shore up their weaknesses.

The off-season fad is to say the Jaguars have finally done enough to unseat Indy. Even AOL has found a writer who thinks the additions of WR Jerry Porter, CB Drayton Florence, WR Troy Williamson, and draft day additions like DE Derrick Harvey and Quentin Groves are enough to knock off a Colts team that has beaten the Jaguars 5 of the last 6 times. Indeed, even the football guru himself, John Clayton, thought the Jaguars had an impressive run in free agency.

19_56_4712_3_04_medium

Did getting Drayton Florence (#29) help push the Jags over the Colts?

Photo via www.nctimes.com

While the Jaguars are much improved, it is important to note that so are the Colts. New Era Scouting's Dave Gardner has an article up talking about how the Colts are, quietly (per usual), shaping into the best team in football talent-wise.

The Colts could have kept the same roster from last season and still made it to the playoffs. With all the skill positions in place on offense (they’ll be fine with or without Marvin Harrison), and an excellent back seven on defense, they were in place to win at least ten games. However, as they prepare for the first season in a new stadium, it should be ready to host more than just the eight regular season games.

Not long ago, I wrote about how the Jaguars do not have a single area of their team that is better than Indy's. Chris at Big Cat responded, disagreeing with my take and offering little rebuttal in terms of substance.

I'll grant Quarterback, I'll even concede the offensive line and Tight Ends.  But to say that the Colts have better Linebackers, Defensive Line, and Secondary than the Jaguars is an ignorant statement.  The Jaguars use their linebackers a little differently than the Colts do in the "Dungy 2", and really can't be compared directly.  The combination of Durrant, Ingram, Peterson, and Smith give the Jaguars three guys who can play every combination of linebacker spots, the speed to play sideline to sideline, and a nasty hard hitting attitude.  I'd take our bench linebacker over any of the Colts starters.  Remember, the biggest knock on the Jaguars pass rushers is that they're young.  None of our guys are coming off of a Lis Franc, like Mr. Freeney.

I'm happy Chris thinks so much of his new secondary, but when the Jaguars have a Defensive Player of the Year-type guy in their defensive backfield, they can say their secondary is better than Indy's. Maybe. Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea are the best safety tandem in football. Sanders won the DPOY and Bethea went to the Pro Bowl (and unlike other Pro Bowl safeties, Bethea is pretty good). And the corners, Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden, started every single game last season.

The result? The Colts had the #2 pass defense in football, allowing an average of 5.9 yards per competition with 16 TDs and 22 INTs. QB had an average rating of 73 against Indy. This entire DB unit will be back in 2008, and with the added depth of second year man Dante Hughes. Until the Jags have a secondary that produces like this, saying they are better is nonsense. Utter nonsense.

And they can say whatever they want about their LBers, but the fact is the Colts LBers define speed and hard hitting. They also have tremendous depth. 2007 rookie Clint Session was amazing, and with all three starting LBers coming back this unit is better than Jacksonville's. We also have yet to see what Philip Wheeler will bring to the equation. Indy's linebackers do an excellent job dropping into zones and making plays, and are very active in stopping the run.

The DE argument is silly. Freeney is recovering extremely well from his foot surgery and Robert Mathis is better than both Harvey and Groves. The younger guys may one day develop into great rushers, but we're not talking about two or three years from now. We're talking 2008, and the Colts will get even better in that area if they sign Rosevelt Colvin. Indy also drafted Marcus Howard, who is faster than both Freeney and Mathis.

So, I see little change in the AFC South. The Colts are still the most talented team in the division with the best coaches and front office personnel. I recognize that AFC South teams like the Jags have made significant moves to get better, and better they are. But it isn't enough. The Colts did not just sit ideally by. I realize this is boring to media hacks who are desperate for a story line, but the bottom line is Indy is still great, and the other AFC South teams still have not caught up.

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Its really laughable BBS

that you actually think the Texans and Titans are better than the Eagles and Skins.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 2, 2008 3:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm interested to hear

What makes you think the Skins and Eagles are better than the Titans?

I’ll remind you that when we last played the NFC East, the Titans beat the Redskins and spanked the Eagles (in Philly.) I’m also curious how 9-7 and 8-8, respectively, translates into a better team than 10-6 in the best division in football. I guess it must be that monster running back Lorenzo Booker, that Philly signed. Or maybe the 15 rookie receivers Washington took in the draft. What exactly have these teams done to make them better than the Titans this year?

by SuperHorn on Jun 2, 2008 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

first of all NFC East is the superior division

and its obvious the Eagles just had an off year, normally they blow the Titans and Texans off the field. Redskins are the worst team in the East but still clearly superior to the Texans.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 2, 2008 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Superhorn

A piece of advice: don’t expect rational, well-reasoned arguments from Terry. Instead expect unsubstantiated claims (“NFC East is the superior division”) and a delusional arrogance in his analysis (“it’s obvious the Eagles just had an off year”—“obvious” is a word Terry uses a lot). We’re all homers to one extent or another, but Terry believes that Tony Romo could kick God’s ass in a bar brawl.

by ctnyc on Jun 3, 2008 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

and BBS feels the same way about Manning

so whats your point?

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 4, 2008 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And Peyton

is God. So, how can God kick his own ass? ;)

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jun 5, 2008 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

OK

I’m still not understanding how the Eagles got better than the Titans over the offseason. Because if they didn’t, they had exactly 2 less wins than the Titans, and didn’t even make the playoffs.

by SuperHorn on Jun 3, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

don't worry about it

Terry is psychologically incapable of backing an argument with anything besides his personal opinion.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on Jun 3, 2008 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the same exact thing can be said about BBS

but I guess he’s allowed to just state his opinion without backing it up with numbers.

In Romo we Trust

by Terry on Jun 4, 2008 1:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just from the piece above
The result? The Colts had the #2 pass defense in football, allowing an average of 5.9 yards per competition with 16 TDs and 22 INTs. QB had an average rating of 73 against Indy. This entire DB unit will be back in 2008, and with the added depth of second year man Dante Hughes. Until the Jags have a secondary that produces like this, saying they are better is nonsense. Utter nonsense.

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on Jun 4, 2008 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

The Redskins have no stable QB and now have Jim Zorn as their coach. The Eagles have under-achieved for the last three years. Texans and Titans have better defenses than both Eagles or Redskins as well.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jun 2, 2008 4:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not to mention...

The AFC South lacks Joe Simpson whispering marketing ideas into any of their starting quarterbacks heads in between plays.

Zing, I’ll be here all week…

-Chris

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 2, 2008 4:08 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Numbers Dont Lie...

Indy Total Defensive rank: 3rd. Jaguars Total Defensive rank: 12th. Ouch
Indy Points allowed rank: 1st. Jags Points allowed rank 10th. Chris?
Pro Bowlers on Defense: Indy 2 (Starting Safeties) Jags 0. Oops
Defensive awards: Indy Defensive Player of the Year. Jags?
The Jags do have a good D and as long as Coach Del Rio is there, they’ll be respected but the Colts D is just better. By the way because we’re in the same division playing the same teams pretty much in and out of conference, those numbers are a apples for apples comparison.

Make sure you try the veal…

by vcoxiv on Jun 2, 2008 5:17 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

rbs

i know i’m not a regular poster, so i feel like i should go ahead and clarify: i am a lifelong, diehard colts fan.

with that having been said, the jags’ running back tandem OWNS ours. i would rather have maurice jones-drew than addai, and fred taylor is way better than any other running back on our depth chart – and they do it behind an o-line that is less than stellar. i can also see the argument about linebackers, because mike peterson, (originally a colt,) is so damn good. yes, even better than brackett, who is a fine cover two linebacker, but wouldn’t last a day in another style of defense.

other than those two spots i completely agree, it’s not even close… although resean mathis is a helluva corner, he’s only one guy. nobody else in that secondary is the least bit scary.

by saintnixon on Jun 2, 2008 5:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'd take MJD/Taylor over Addai-Keith/Dom

But not MJD over Addai straight up. Addai’s carried a larger load and put up similarly good numbers. MJD’s per carry numbers are higher because he gets less carries so is running fresh against a more worn down D and because he’s more explosive, while Addai is a consistent drive sustainer. Addai is more valuable per play and in total. Taylor blows the Colts backups out of the water though.
Success Rate (56% vs 46%)

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on Jun 2, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I wouldn't

Jones-Drew is a stud, but I’d rather have Dom or Addai than Taylor mainly because of age. Taylor’s old, and though he has worked to shake off his “Fragile Freddy” label, he still gets dinged up a bit. Having Jones-Drew is THE reason Taylor has managed to shake that injury label.

The Colts overall RB depth is far better than Jacksonville’s. If anything happens to Jones-Drew, their running game will suck. Taylor is not a 20-plus carry guys, and Greg Jones is… well, he’s nobody. Meanwhile, Dominic Rhodes is a proven veteran who shows up in big games, Kenton Keith showed he can move the chains when running (4.4 a carry), and Mike Hart is an intriguing rookie.

Overall, better depth and talent for Indy.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jun 2, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Greg Jones is....

A 20 carry a game RB disguised as a Fullback. You’d be a “nobody” too if you were behind Taylor and Jones-Drew, but I wouldn’t write him off just because he’s lacking in game stats. He’d keep us going just fine, and will probably be the “next top running back” for the Jaguars after Fred hangs up his cleats.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 2, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Last year

He averaged 2.8 yards a run behind an offensive line that gave 4.6 a carry to Jones-Drew and 5.4 to Taylor. in 2005, when Jones (151 carries) had similar carries to Kenton Keith’s 2006 year (121 carries), he averaged 3.8 a carry while Keith averaged 4.4. I don’t know the state of Jacksonville’s line in 2005 (they were 12-4 that year), but last year the Colts had all kinds of injuries, and yet K2 still averaged 4.4 a carry.

If Jones is your next “top running back,” I rest my case. The Colts have better talent and better depth.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jun 2, 2008 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Great point.

Except that because Greg was the Jaguars fullback, he was given the ball on very short yardage situations, and often as a distraction to handing the ball to Fred or Maurice. His average is shorter because many of his carries were on the goal line as a change of pace.

Wait and see, you’ll understand.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 2, 2008 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Success rate says...

45% for Greg Jones in 2005, good for 21st in the league and a touch below average as runner in total. The success rate would be high if he was converting a bunch of short yardage carries (see 2007 Kenton Keith).

my blog http://shakennbaken.blogspot.com

by shake n bake on Jun 2, 2008 11:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i will concede that the colts’ depth is better than the jags’, but i still disagree about not taking mjd over addai straight up. also, if both groups are healthy, the depth is insignificant because mjd/taylor is absolutely superior to addai/whichever backup you want to insert here. please do not suggest that dom rhodes is superior to a healthy fred taylor. personally i would take mjd over addai, because he’s a better red-zone threat, (as evidenced by his superior rushing touchdown numbers, 3 fewer tds in roughly 100 fewer attempts last year,) and he’s every bit as effective blocking in and catching the ball out of the backfield. also, he’s a deadly return man. as far as the “not carrying as great of a load” argument… we don’t know whether or not mjd is capable of putting up similar numbers with a greater workload, because he doesn’t have to. my suspicion is that he would be just fine with an increased load, but we won’t know until it happens. addai is not more valuable “per play.” per play they’re roughly even. the difference between the two, it seems to me, is a little bit like old edge vs. young edge. mjd is more LIKE young edge with regard to his explosiveness, addai is more LIKE old edge with regard to his consistency. (note the emphasis on the word “like.” i am not trying to suggest that either will ever be as great as the edge.) anyway. i am not trying to suggest that i am unhappy with addai, he’s great. these two backs were clearly the cream of their draft class, and i feel like choosing between the two is like choosing between a bmw and a mercedes-benz. “yes, please” to both.

by saintnixon on Jun 2, 2008 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Also...

They may have drafted Quentin Groves and Derrick Harvey, but we drafted Mike Pollack, Steve Justice and Jamey Richards to stop them. I don’t see either of their new DE’s getting to Peyton this year. Our O-Line is too good.

by FreeneyWillEatYourBaby on Jun 2, 2008 5:23 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What if they're covered and they allow someone else to get to Manning?

Does that count against Groves/Harvey? Or will you go so far as to say that all the defensive changes are for naught and Manning will be untouched? Harvey beat the best at the college level, including Jake Long, he should have a good enough chance to be productive in his rookie year.

If I recall correctly, Freeney was pretty good his first year.

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 2, 2008 5:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sorry...

Sorry Big Cat, but you really have to be smoking crack to say the Jags secondary is better than the Colts. The Colts have probably the best secondary in the league and we have serious depth with guys like Giordano (who would start if he played for the Jags).

As for LB’s I am going to have to say its a slight edge to the Colts mostly due to the fact that Mike Peterson just can’t seem to shake off the injury bug.

by MasterRWayne on Jun 2, 2008 7:07 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

My arguement, however hard to get

Was that saying that the Colts were better at every position than the Jaguars is absurd. My claim about the secondary was NOT that it was better than the Colts, but what I meant was that you can’t compare last years’s secondary that Jacksonville fielded to what the Colts will put on the field in 2008.

Have you ever seen a Jaguars secondary coached by Donnie Henderson and Gregg Williams, that features Brian Williams at Safety, Drayton Florence as a CB, and a 2nd year Reggie Nelson?

Can you honestly assume that losing the Sammy Knight liability, changing both defensive coaches, moving players around to their more natural position, combined with a little more age and experience (Nelson) will be the same as last season?

I’m not saying they’re better, just because I’ve never seen what that defense looks like in pads, but writing off the whole bunch is absurd.

-Chris

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 2, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the rookie de's

not afraid of them at all… harvey was a guy that took advantage of inferior athletes in college, and it will take him awhile to catch up on technique. I feel much the same way about groves. they might be nasty in a couple of years, but all they induce right now is yawns.

by saintnixon on Jun 2, 2008 8:42 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

btw. i know that harvey had a great game against long, i also think that long was overrated and laugh my butt off when miami took him #1 overall.

by saintnixon on Jun 2, 2008 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Random, But

Here is my roster preview. I’m going to do a divisional rundown sometime this week or next.

www.naptownsfinest.com

by Colts Homer on Jun 2, 2008 9:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I love this site.

Seriously. Even though ya’ll hate 99% of what I represent, it’s a breath of fresh air compared to some of the message boards and nonsense out there. I feel like if I argue with you guys here, I could still probably have a beer with you afterwards.

You’re still wrong about the Jaguars, of course, but that’s the fun of speculation and opinion.

-Chris

Big Cat Country!:: The Official Home of the Unofficial Blog of the Jacksonville Jaguars!

by River City Rage on Jun 3, 2008 1:59 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I Agree Completely

Except about you being right part, of course. This site and its members is definitely more respectful to people with outside opinions than most other message boards.

www.naptownsfinest.com

by Colts Homer on Jun 3, 2008 6:51 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Chris

Chris is one of the original contributors here at SB.

SB Nation's Indianapolis Colts blogger at Stampede Blue. Please make an account and post a diary, add some comments, and make some noise. Accounts are free, and only require an email address.

by BigBlueShoe on Jun 3, 2008 9:01 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool

www.naptownsfinest.com

by Colts Homer on Jun 3, 2008 10:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

i agree that

i would lean towards the AFC South as a better division last year. the Giants won the Super Bowl but 10-6 is still 10-6 – you can’t forget the entire regular season because they got hot for four weeks. i agree for the most part about the Redskins (cough, Todd Collins), but at the same time, with the way the Eagles were playing at the end of the season, I think they could’ve taken down an offensively-inept Titans team pretty easily.

something that i’ll say to defend the NFC East (this is an argument that i never hear) is that it’s a lot tougher to play in a division where every game is against a long-time rival and in extremely hostile environments. not to take anything away from Jacksonville, Tennesee, and Houston, but those fan bases have barely been around more than a decade and playing in those environments is nothing like playing in front of 90,000 people in DC, or putting up with Philly (the most malicious fans in the NFL), Dallas or Giants Stadium. sure, the AFC South venues are a lot tougher to play in than five years ago – and especially for the Colts, because every team in the division ups their game for Indy – but i feel like people are underrating that fact when talking about the two divisions.

by SBakerTheTouchdownMaker on Jun 3, 2008 10:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Best Division

I think it is a pointless argument. Both divisions had similar finishing record, with a slight edge to the AFC South. Of course, the NFC East produced the Super Bowl champions, and that should count for something. Both divisions took all the wild-card spots, landing three out of four teams in the playoffs.

After that, homerism becomes the deciding factor. That is what makes it pointless. I am content in knowing what I can never convince NFC East advocates of. The AFC South is clearly the best division in football.

by coltsfanawalt on Jun 3, 2008 9:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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