Using both winning percentage and comparing the difference between expected wins (previous years wins with regression to the mean factored in) and actual wins through each NFL coaches career FO finds evidence that a head coaches prime is between the ages of 41 and 51 with a strong dropoff in the late 50s.

The new top QB seasons list (1995-2007) has 07 Brady on top, followed by two Peyton Manning seasons, 2004 Dante Culpepper, and 3 more Peyton Manning seasons

Brady has the highest QB projection, but it is labeled as high risk. They project Manning just slightly behind him and all but guarantee that level of production.

Kerry Collins was better than Vince Young in 2007. A lot better. He was better on first down (0.8% to -3.3% DVOA), better on second down (26.2% to -5.2%), and better on 3rd down (65.5% to -13.6%)

Addai is projected to be an elite back again, though they give him more carries than I would like (287)

They are very down on Mike Hart. His projection for this year is mediocre, 305 yards for 2 TDs with 4.1 a carry plus another 112 and a TD receiving and a slightly above average DVOA. They peg his future as dim because he’s a small back with a bad 40 time. His speed score (a new measure of RB speed and basic predictor of NFL viability using 40 time and weight) is the lowest of any back drafted let alone a success in the last 8 years. They say he may stick as a undersized fullback (the role he’ll likely start out in) but dismiss his chances of being a effective NFL RB.

The FO projection likes Chris Johnson almost as much as I did, predicting him approaching 1000 yards on the ground and 500 catching the ball as a part timer.

Kenton Keith is predicted to be able to catch the ball next year, but have his rushing performance fall greatly.

Dom is right how I would expect. As a rusher he’s below average (but above replacement level). As a receiver he’s very good

They project Anthony Gonzalez with over 1000 yards and with 10 TDs…..........
...
As the #2 receiver.

Marvin Harrison’s injury gives him a very uncertain (in both directions) 52 reception, 741 yard and 5 TD projection.
He’s projected to be limited more in playing time (only 80 targets) than effectiveness at 13.3% DVOA. Which would put him just inside the top 20 in per play value.

On Randy Moss

Two years of grousing and phoning in performances in Oakland didn’t cause skill deterioration. Moss Proved last year that he’s still one of the 3 or 4 best athletes in the game, capable of making impossible catches and running past cornerbacks with alleged 4.4 speed. He can bring serious production when he wants to. We just can’t predict when he will want to.

Still reading. More later

Garcon’s quick profile praises his blocking skills, something I hadn’t heard before.

They have Clark matching last years career high in receptions and breaking last years career high in yards.

Adam Vinatieri is their 3rd ranked fantasy kicker, but that really only means they think the Colts offense will be great and he’ll keep his job.

They use adjusted game lost over the last three years to rank all 32 NFL medical staffs. The Colts come in dead last. Maybe they shouldn’t have their punter doubling as head athletic trainer.

Dallas Clark dropped 9 passes last season tying him with 6 other players for 10th in the league. Brandon Marshall led the league at 15. Big names Braylon Edwards (12), Randy Moss (11), Chad Johnson (10), Reggie Bush (10) and Brian Westbrook (9) all finished in the top 10.

Brandon Jacobs dropped over 1 in 4 passes intended for him, 26.3%. Kenton Keith finished 4th behind Deverey Henderson and Cedric Benson at 21.7%

Jason David allowed 1051 yards.

Dom Rhodes was 6th from last in kickoff return value last season

T.J. Rushing was 5th in pun return value.

The Colts defense finished in the middle 12 (11th-22nd) in yards allowed per drive, but 5th in points allowed per drive. “Bend, but don’t break”

The Colts had a better DVOA on regular passes than on play action. One of 9 teams to do so.

That’s all for tonight.

for all the homework. I especially like the fact that Collins was better than Young. When will those silly Titans ever learn… So we were the most injured team. I remember a discussion a few months back with a Bears fan who was arguing that they were the most injured team.