Place your bets, FO vs. ME
by shake n bake on Jul 17, 2008 10:55 PM EDT
4 comments
My subjective record predictions (that do factor in schedule) vs FO's record projection system. My method was posted here. I'd describe it as a way of organizing and quantifying my subjective opinion while working in strength of schedule.
AFC SOUTH
Colts: FO 9.9----ME 14
Jaguars: FO 9.2----ME 10
Texans: FO 8.9----ME 8
Titans: FO 6.7----ME 7
AFC EAST
Patriots: FO 12.8----ME 13
Bills: FO 7.2----ME 7
Jets: FO 7.2----ME 7
Dolphins: FO 5.5----ME 4
AFC NORTH
Ravens: FO 8.5----ME 4
Steelers: FO 7.2----ME 10
Bengals: FO 6.8----ME 7
Brown: FO 6.3----ME 6
AFC WEST
Chargers: FO 11----ME 12
Broncos: FO 8.7 ----ME 7
Chiefs: FO 6.6----ME 6
Raiders: FO 3.9----ME 3
NFC SOUTH
Buccaneers: FO 10.3----ME 9
Panthers: 9.5 ----ME 8
Saints: FO 8.3----ME 8
Falcons: FO 3.5 ----ME 6
NFC EAST
Eagles: FO 11.7----ME 11
Giants: FO 9.6----ME 11
Cowboys: FO 8.1----ME 11
Redskins: FO 6.9----ME 8
NFC NORTH
Packers: FO 11.4----ME 11
Vikings: FO 10.1----ME 10
Bears: FO 6.9----ME 6
Lions: FO 4.3----ME 5
NFC WEST
Seahawks: FO 10.5 ----ME 10
Cardinals: FO 7.5----ME 5
49ers: FO 5.3----ME 5
Rams: FO 5.1----ME 7
So the Ravens are the big difference. I'm surprised at how close my predictions were to FOs projections since I made these a month ago before seeing their's. 5 of the 8 divisions are in the exact same order and my NFC East team were only separated by fractions of a win. The Raven's in the basement and a flip of the Cards-Rams are the only big differences.
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Shake
My money is on shake n bake. I have longed to prove FO wrong!
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by BigBlueShoe on Jul 18, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
I am about as big of a Colts die hard as they come. But 14 wins? That reeks of homerism, which is fine, I am often guilty too. But how do you figure that playing in the toughest division in the AFC, arguably the NFL. On top of that, the Colts have the second toughest schedule in the league. I hope you are right, but that is going to be tough. I could see 14 wins for the Pats who play in an awful division and own the easiest schedule in football. My question is this…would you be willing to put you hard earned dollars on that prediction? Or is it just wishful thinking?
by Matic on Jul 18, 2008 9:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I don't look at the final record
until I’m finished so my little biases go unchecked.
You can love me or hate me
I swear it wont make me or break me
Im goin whereva da money take me
Until they funeral and wake me
-Lil' Wayne Love me or Hate me
by shake n bake on Jul 18, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not bad. FO’s system is flawed in that it assumes that it is impossible to stay excellent for long periods of time, and that given enough time any team will regress toward the mean. Personally, I’d peg the Ravens for 6-8 wins. They typically have a yo-yo effect where they go 13-3 and then 4-12, so I think when you factor in the age and the retirement of their franchise left tackle and breaking in a new QB, 6-8 sounds right. With out brutal schedule, I don’t think the Colts will win 14 games. 12-13, I can see. 14 is highly unlikely. I’d actually give the Raiders another game. They had a good defense last year, and Darren McFadden could be the next Gale Sayers, or the next Reggie Bush. A good running game is the easiest and quickest way to bring a QB along who may be anywhere from average to functionally retarded in the football smarts department.
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by MonkeyBusiness on Jul 18, 2008 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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