Helping you beat me in Fantasy Football
by shake n bake on Aug 15, 2008 12:40 AM EDT
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PrintThe Tom Brady edition.
I've seen a ton of talk about Tom Brady as a early first round, and sometimes 1st overall pick in fantasy drafts. It's dumb. It's painfully dumb, it hurts me to see it so much so that I am going to try to kill the chance I see it in a Stampede Blue league even though it would help me if someone did it.
Brady had an amazing season last year. He took me to the last years Stampede Blue league championship game (got him by autodraft since I was at work). But the reality is that Brady is going to come back down to earth. Brady's 08 was the 5th QB in the history of the league with 40+ TDs here are the totals the next year with their 40+ season total in parenthesis and the drop in brackets.
Manning 2005: 28 (49) [-21]
Marino 1985: 30 (48) [-18]
Marino 1987: 26 (44) [-18]
Warner 1999: 21 (41) [-20]
The least anyone dropped off was 18 Touchdowns. It's a small sample, but the result is very intuitive. Teams will gameplan to stop or limit the QB to an even greater extent after a record season. How often did Manning see safeties shallow or single coverage on the outside after his 49 TD season? Combine that with regression to the mean and you get 20 TD dropoffs.
Lets up the sample with 10 more great seasons. Here is every season with at least 35 TDs with the following season and drop off.
Brett Favre 1996: 39 (35) [-4]
Dante Culpepper 2004: 39 (6) [-33] no, those numbers aren't flipped around he threw 6 TDs
Brett Favre 1995: 38 (39) [+1]
George Blanda 1961: 36 (27) [-9]
Y.A. Tittle 1963: 36 (10) [-26] not flipped around, only 10 TDs
Steve Young 1998: 36 (3) [-33] only 3 TDs
Steve Beuerlein 1999: 36 (19) [-17]
Kurt Warner: 2001: 36 (3) [-33] again, not flipped around 3 TDs
Tony Romo 2007: 36 (?) [?]
Brett Favre 1997: 35 (31) [-4]
Steve Young 1994: 35 (20) [-15]
Only Brett Favre maintained a high level of TD passes for more than one year. Interestingly his INT % increased each of the years after the 35 TD performance. From 2.3 in his first 35+ season to 2.4 then 3.1 and finally 4.2 following the third 35+ season, suggesting he did a bit of gunslinging to keep the TD total up.
The odds are very very strongly against Tom Brady coming close to repeating last season. So chill on him for a second. I will not draft Brady in the first round in any league that doesn't start multiple QBs (I'm not in any at this time). He more the likely won't even come close to last season's marks. Only Favre hasn't had a significant dropoff in TDs after a 35+ TD season and only Favre and Blanda didn't drop by 15 or more TDs.
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Not so fast...
That’s good research and sound logic, but there is one big problem:
None of those QBs played their second season with Randy Moss. If he’s healthy and motivated, Brady will throw for 40 TDs. Moss is just that good.
18to88.com
40 TDs
would be a 10 TD drop. Which is in the area of the previous big seasons. If I was to guess I would say 35 TDs, still a great season, but nothing historic.
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." - Thomas Paine
(Yes, that is a non-Lil Wayne lyric sig).
by shake n bake on Aug 15, 2008 9:45 AM EDT up reply actions
Brady earned the hype.
Manning had the same thing the year after his record. In fact, he went #1 in one league I played in. Peyton usually goes first round, so this is the same thing.
I think there is a natural dropoff after a great season, plus teams will learn to gameplan against the pass better, as we have learned. However, Brady is also very talented, and he is still surrounded by offensive talent. We will see how it goes real soon. I believe Manning will outshine him statistically this year like usual, but, hey, I am a Colts fan.
Brady is still worth a first round pick. First overall? Unlikely. But personally, I’m wondering if LDT is worth the first overall pick this year. If it’s me, I’m taking Purple Jesus first overall, since I rode his ass to a league championship last year.
Did I mention I lucked into Brady, Moss, and PJ? It was possibly the greatest fantasy team ever.
/no homo
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by MonkeyBusiness on Aug 15, 2008 11:19 AM EDT reply actions
Brady will still throw around 40 TDs
with a healthy Moss just like Romo will throw around 40 with a healthy T.O.
In Romo we Trust
Not buying Brady
Remember the last few games of the season, and some of playoff games? Yeah, Brady struggled to even beat Peyton’s record. Teams are going to game plan against the Pats just like teams did to the Colts in ‘05. It’s not going to come easy. And the Moss argument is stupid…sure, he’s a beast, but Manning had Marvin, and Young had Rice. Those 3 receivers could be mentioned as the top 3 of all time when it’s all said and done.
If it’s me, I’m not drafting Brady in any league. Sure, I’m a Colts fan, but I didn’t even draft Peyton in the first round in ‘05… QB’s in fantasy football are a nice position to have a great player at, but I believe you can win more leagues with a good qb and a great RB/WR as opposed to a great QB and good WR/RB. QB’s aren’t worth a first round pick, IMO.
Now that I said all of this…watch Brady throw 45 TD’s and this get shoved down my throat…lol :P
Not the end of it
But in the pre-Draft priority selection, lot of them have taken Brady as a first round choice. They even seem to sincerely believe that with the addition of John Lynch the defense has been “revamped” and the Patriots are headed for another SB. Apparently Pats vs Vikings/Cowboys seem to be the matchup they are predicting!!
"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi
"revamped"
Lynch just replaces Tank Williams as the backup safety/LB hybrid behind HGHarision. Their CBs are still Hobbs plus rookies and castoffs. The LBs (besides Jerod Mayo who was one of my favorite players in the draft) are even more ancient.
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." - Thomas Paine
(Yes, that is a non-Lil Wayne lyric sig).
by shake n bake on Aug 15, 2008 7:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well
A lot of fantasy football participants don’t know too much about the game I guess :D
But I did see a lot of excitement on the Pats site about the Lynch signing. Maybe they truly believe that Brady to Moss is the formula for success.
"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi
by rangerover76 on Aug 15, 2008 7:49 PM EDT up reply actions
"excitement about the Lynch signing"
you mean like this
"To argue with a person who has renounced the use of reason is like administering medicine to the dead." - Thomas Paine
(Yes, that is a non-Lil Wayne lyric sig).
by shake n bake on Aug 15, 2008 8:01 PM EDT up reply actions
:D like this
I liked the KSK post.
I meant like this
http://www.patspulpit.com/2008/8/14/593928/according-to-a-league-sour#comments
My colleague and I have a bet about when Lynch is going to be injured and out for the season. I bet trying to stop Addai and he bet trying to stop LT. Let’s see who gets the 6-pack ;)
"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi
by rangerover76 on Aug 15, 2008 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions
:D Like this
I liked the KSK post.
I meant like this
http://www.patspulpit.com/2008/8/14/593928/according-to-a-league-sour#comments
My colleague and I have a bet about when Lynch is going to be injured and out for the season. I bet trying to stop Addai and he bet trying to stop LT. Let’s see who gets the 6-pack ;)
"Winning is not everything;the desire to win is" - Vince Lombardi
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