Is the Bear's Defense still an Elite Unit?

by mgrex03 on Sep 2, 2008 12:43 PM EDT in Analysis Comment 10 comments

It was only a mere 19 months ago that the Colts thumped the Bears in the Super Bowl, a year in which the Bears were clearly led by a top-flight defense. They even won a few games, even when Rex Grossman tried his damnedest to lose it for the Bears. Brian Urlacher was a feared MLB, and Tommie Harris was one of the best DT in the NFL.

In 2006, the Bears finished 3rd in Points Allowed, and 5th in Yards/Game. Obviously an elite defense, and that was without Harris and Mike Brown for the majority of the season. Their Preseason Rankings, while mostly irrelevant, had them at 20th in Yards/Game and 10th in Points Allowed. These are middle of the road, but again, are mostly irrelevant, since there are lots of plays run by players who'll never see an NFL game that counts.

In 2007, the Bears finished 16th in Points Allowed, and 28th in Yards Allowed. Again, they had a few injuries (Brown, again, Vasher the big ones), but still no where close to being an elite unit. They gave up 123 rush yards/game, which was 24th in the league. As a point of reference, in the Preseason they finished 3rd in Yards Allowed, but 28th in Points Allowed. That is a wide difference, but again, in the Preseason, take it with a grain of salt.

That brings us to the 2008 Preseason for the Bears. They faced the Fearsome Foursome of QBs: Brodie Croyle, Charlie Frye, JT O'Sullivan, and Brady Quinn, and they finished 32nd in Yards Allowed, including 27th against the pass, and 31st against the run. As a point of reference, the Colts finished 30th against the run, and they played backups and 3rd stringers for 3/4 of the Preseason. The Bears finished 30th in Points Allowed. These are not stats for an elite defense.

I watched a good portion of their game against the Browns, and in the first half, at a minimum Urlacher and Lance Briggs played, so it wasn't like they didn't play their starters. And the Browns were running at will against them. Quinn didn't need to throw the ball, as Jason Wright was shredding their defense on the ground. Now the Browns have a very good O-Line, but their skill position starters did not play at all in the game. And they put up 10 points in the 1st quarter against the Bears 1st Team Defense.

I was reading an article in the Chicago Sun-Times, and Brad Biggs is asking the same question I am:

The Bears would have you believe there's a switch somewhere that they'll get around to flipping this week. You know -- the one that turns on their defense now that the regular season has arrived.

He then mentions who their Week 1 opponent is, and what has happened since they last time they faced #18:

The last time the Bears took on Manning and the Colts in prime time, things didn't turn out so good, and it's fair to say the defense has been in a bit of a tailspin ever since.

On the Bears current depth chart, they have 8 starters on defense that played in the Super Bowl. That isn't a big turnover at all, especially in today's NFL. And they all played in the Preseason. And they were the worst in the NFL.

I think we are going to see a heavy dose of Joseph Addai, Dominic Rhodes, and Mike Hart on Sunday night. Not only will we need to get Peyton into a rhythm, but we should be able to run all over the Bears defense.

Poll

Is the Bears Defense Still an Elite Unit?

Yes

23 votes

No

115 votes

The Preseason is meaningless, so let's wait and see

80 votes

218 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs | Comment 10 comments

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Comments

I've been wondering

How effective the running game is going to be with all these injuries on the O-Line. Hopefully this will be a good test, or at least something to give them confidence.

by yellowsnow on Sep 2, 2008 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think they are still a pretty high-end D

But the offense is so freakin awful that it kills their team.

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by MrNFL on Sep 2, 2008 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Bear's D

Have good personnel and talent, but seem to have lost that “Mental Edge” they had in ’06.

Pressure is somethig you feel when you don't know what you're doing!

by thefrozz on Sep 2, 2008 3:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

and...

that “Defensive Coordinator” they had in ’06.

They certainly were not elite last year, so how could they possibly STILL be elite?

by durok on Sep 2, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

True That!

Pressure is somethig you feel when you don't know what you're doing!

by thefrozz on Sep 2, 2008 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The real question..

You’re asking the wrong question. Its not whether the Bears are still an Elite Defense, its whether they ever were. I’m not saying that to be cute or smart. Yes, they’ve had bad quarterback play there since the 80s, but this is a defense that has bloated its stats playing the vikings, packers, and lions 6 times a year, not to mention getting the NFC west and South (which has always produced atleast 2 crappy teams a year) to bloat their stats. I’m not saying they aren’t above average, but I would argue that they were never elite.

(Think back to the last time the Colts played the Bears before the Super Bowl. That was in the height of their ‘eliteness’, and they got carved. Elite Defense should atleast be able to slow Elite Offense.)

Also, the fact that Tommy Harris can’t keep his hamstring on effects them, a lot. As we all know, the Tampa 2 is predicated on front 4 pressure, and they let 2 good young DTs go, and TH is always hurting. Maybe that will change this year, we’ll see.

by Nideak on Sep 2, 2008 6:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Football Outsiders

had them as the 7th best defenselast season, 2nd best in 2006, 1st in 2005, 11th in 2004

so they were definitely an elite team for a while and they were still pretty good last year. If they had anything resembling an offense I would take them seriously as a team.

"I'm not racin', I'm just sprintin'
Cuz I don't wanna finish
they diminish, I replenish"
-Lil Wayne "Let the beat build"

by shake n bake on Sep 2, 2008 6:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I like FO as much as the next guy...

but

1) I dont take everything they say as gospel

2) While their system is probably the most unbias, reliable way of measuring goodness/badness for O/D/STs, it has obvious flaws.

3) Instead of using FO or NFL rankings, how about this: Name the last time you saw the Bears defense shut down a good offense. (i think, over the course of the past 4-5 years, there is only one obvious, and my counter point will be that it had more to do with weather/nerves/horrendous play calling than it did the bears defense).

One last thing… the FO rankings just sort of prove my point. Football outsiders has said, mulitple times, that a huge victory over a bad team is ranked higher than a close win over a good team. So yes, the bears team got a ton of turn overs and stops against the lions, vikings, seahawks, 49ers, cardinals, rams, falcons, etc, etc, etc…

Further, their front office/coaching staff has done a horrendous job of building a cover-2 defense. The most important parts of the Cover 2 would go, as follows (i think we all agree, or i hope, anyhow): A fast, penetrating line to pressure the QB. A hard hitting safety that can cover a lot of ground. LBers that can both hit their gap against the run and get depth for zone coverage. Probably in that order. 4th or 5th on the list would be Corners. So what do the Bears do? Let their DTs walk. Get no depth at safety where they are currently starting a safety that manages to be more fragile than Bob Sanders. They almost let their key WIL ’backer go and then they: Overpay for corners, overpay Brian Urlacher, and fail to really find a great SAM to fill out the puzzle.

Yea, Im an armchair GM and I don’t know anything about football, but the 2000/01 ravens had a dismal offense and their ELITE defense was able to win games on its own. The bears defense has rarely won a game for the bears. Now, if you want to say defense/special teams, okay, but this isnt a fantasy football team we’re talking about.

by Nideak on Sep 2, 2008 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But they are blowing out bad teams

by a lot more than team usually blow out those bad teams. It’s opponent adjusted.

And they play much less of a pure Tampa-2. You can really only find that in Indy now. Even Tampa ran a ton of cover-4 last year. When you are going to throw in blitzes and other various schemes and stunts corners that can do more than just play the flats or stay infront of a WR becomes important. Not that the Bears haven’t screw up there personnel choices. Just look at the offense.

"I'm not racin', I'm just sprintin'
Cuz I don't wanna finish
they diminish, I replenish"
-Lil Wayne "Let the beat build"

by shake n bake on Sep 2, 2008 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I understand DVOA...

My point is, everywhere I think we can all find something in DVOA that we don’t agree with. I think that system is better than anything else we have, but I also think it has its flaws. Its not a big deal, we can disagree, its the bears. Just watching them over the past 5-6 years, I was never afraid of their defense. Yes, I know they are a hybrid defense, they play a lot more man coverage than the colts or bucs or other Tampa/Cover-2 teams do. Would still rather spend the money they spent on Vasher and Tillman(
?) on D-Line. I mean, personally, I’m glad they aren’t elite (imo), it made it easier for my team to get a ring. I maintain that if the weather had been a normal Miami day in February, the Colts win by atleast 21.

by Nideak on Sep 3, 2008 9:38 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs