2 > 3

A great breakdown of the value of a safety in total and opposed to a field goal and Touchdown. The result is somewhat intuitive, but, it's a very solid answer to a legitimate question. A really great example of the cool stuff you can get from statistical analysis of football. The site is a must read for anyone that loves a statistical view of football.

over 3 years ago shake n bake 7 comments 0 recs |

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Cool Site

Thanks for pointing this one out.

by torontocoltsfan on Sep 22, 2008 10:07 PM EDT reply actions

Interesting site...

But an example of how complex math clouds a pretty simple question….

I think a prime example of how it can vary is the Broncos/Saints game from Sunday. The Broncos stopped the Saints 3 straight times inside the 3. At the time, the score of the game was 24-17 Broncos.

The Saints had 2 options on 4th and 1, kick the field goal or go for it. Kicking the field goal makes the score 24-20 heading into halftime. More on that later.

The Saints went for it and were stopped. The Broncos took over at the 1, and on the first play tried to run it out of the endzone but didn’t make it – safety for the Saints. Halftime score 24-19.

Now, for the rest of the game, the Saints were chasing that point they decided against. In the 4th quarter, the Saints were trailing 34-26 when they scred a TD. They felt obligated to go for 2 in order to tie. Had they kicked the field goal earlier, the difference would have been 1, or tied with an extra point.

The two point conversion failed, and the result was a 2-point win for the Broncos 34-32. I know this is just one example, and I’m not convinced that going for the TD in the 2nd quarter wasn’t the right thing to do. But when it comes to points, 3 is greater than 2….

-TSG

SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
MileHighReport

Questions, Comments...E-Mail Me!
milehighreport@gmail.com

by John Bena on Sep 23, 2008 9:42 AM EDT reply actions

It's the difference between expected points and real ones

normally a team is better off with 2 points and the ball on the 40, but that doesn’t mean they will be better off every time.

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Sep 23, 2008 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

its clear

in your example the saints didnt have time to fully benefit from getting the ball back after the safety with only a few seconds left in the half

by torontocoltsfan on Sep 23, 2008 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions

good call

play-by-play says they got the ball with 23 seconds

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Sep 23, 2008 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Enough time...

For auto-matica gramtica to miss a field goal……

-TSG

SBNation's Denver Broncos Blogger
MileHighReport

Questions, Comments...E-Mail Me!
milehighreport@gmail.com

by John Bena on Sep 23, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions

He appied the same kind of analysis to the Saints-Broncos game

the lack of time meant the value of the field position from sticking the opposing team at the one was at best severely discounted and pretty much worthless. Kicking the FG there was the better choice, but if there had been more time on the clock (so they could benefit from the field position following the turnout on downs) going for the TD would have been right.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/09/paytons-gamble.html

I ain't tryin' do you, I'm just tryin do me
Last album did two, I'm just tryin' do three
-Young Jeezy "I Luv It"

by shake n bake on Sep 24, 2008 10:30 AM EDT reply actions