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BigBlueShoe's bold New Year's prediction: The Colts will win it all! (A 2008 playoffs study in blind homerism)

I guess it is now a tradition that I make a "bold" prediction as our Colts go into the playoffs. This is my third season covering Indy for SB Nation, and in the two previous seasons, I made "bold" predictions about how the playoffs would shake out. In the 2006 season, I was nearly dead on. I said the Colts would defeat the Chiefs, then the Ravens, and then finally the Patriots (who were the #4 seed). I then said the Colts would face the Saints in the Super Bowl, but the Saints were beaten in the NFC Championship Game by the Bears. So, with 2006 I guessed right on the AFC playoffs, but missed on the NFC. Of course, I'm not upset or anything. The Colts beat the Bears in Super Bowl 41.

In the 2007 season, my playoff predictions were as bad as they were naive. I said the following:

The Colts will beat the Chargers, and beat them badly. They will then beat everyone else they will face in the playoffs and win their second Super Bowl in a row.

As you all know, the Chargers came into the RCA Dome and won a thriller over the Colts 28-24. The Colts came out red hot in that game. Then, because Indy was unable to mount a consistent pass rush because Dwight Freeney was out and both Robert Mathis and Raheem Brock were extremely hobbled, the Chargers fought back in the game and pulled out the win. Indy's old nemesis, Michael Turner, and the former back-up QB for the Tennessee Titans (Billy Volek) helped the Chargers win the game in the 4th quarter. That year, I also said the Colts would face the Cowboys in the Super Bowl, but like the Colts they too were tripped up by a team from the Wild Card round (the Giants).

So yeah, my 2007 playoff predictions, bold and arrogantly defiant, were about as wrong as one cane get.

This season, unlike the past two, I come into these playoffs as a fan who feels he has been through the ringer. After the Colts starting 3-4 and then fighting back to finish the season winning 9 straight, I feel as though any chance to see my guys in the playoffs in a mini-blessing. In years past, I've been nervous come playoff time. I get antsy, restless, and start chewing off all my finger nails. Sometimes, I get so nervous I intentionally miss the first 15 minutes of the game, because all the pre-game hoopla makes me want to jump out my window and climb on the walls.

This year, I don't feel those nerves.

I don't know what it is, but I just don't feel nervous or jittery. All season long, I've seen these Colts players and coaches claw, kick, bite, and scrape their way to win after win after win. Whether down big in the late 4th quarter on the road or driving late to get Adam Vinatieri in game-winning FG range, this team has just found ways to claw out victories. Maybe all those close games shook the nervous jitters out of me, and I simply have no emotion left to feel nervous. Or, maybe I just feel a very quiet, very serene confidence in my team. I just feel that, no matter what, they will get it done.

Now, unlike last year, I'm not going to bash or belittle the opponents. In the playoffs, everyone is good. This year, the San Diego Chargers are 8-8, but they might be even more dangerous than last year. This is a team (like the Colts) that was counted out and left for dead. Now, here they are hosting a playoff game. It is a shame the Chargers and Colts have to play each other in the Wild Card round. These two teams are the most dangerous in the AFC. When I say "dangerous" I mean that their seeding and their records are deceiving. Both teams dealt with injuries and adversity all season. They played tough schedules and lost several key games by close margins (the Chargers, especially). This means people should not dismiss them because one is 8-8 and the other is the 5th seed.

In the playoffs, your regular season records don't matter. What you did in the 2008 regular season is long forgotten. In the playoffs, the healthy teams that know how to win the tough games are the most dangerous, and right now both the Chargers and Colts are healthy, experienced, and very, very dangerous.

All that said, I guess it is time to make some "bold" predictions. The Chargers and Colts are very evenly matched, which is why it is a shame the game is one of the first in the playoffs. But, unlike last season's playoff game in the RCA Dome, the Colts are healthy going into this game in San Diego. In fact, they are as healthy as they've been all season. Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Raheem Brock, and Bob Sanders are all healthy. Joseph Addai looks refreshed, and if you have seen Dominic Rhodes in recent press conferences, the guy looks like he's about to jump out of his skin.

He also looks like Grizzly Adams with that stoner's beard he's growing.

Players like Freeney and Rhodes (who did not play in last year's contest) are invaluable if a team is to beat an opponent like the Chargers. Like Peyton Manning, having Freeney, Rhodes, and Mathis healthy is a big X factor for the Colts. Because these players are available and healthy, the Colts will defeat the Chargers in San Diego is a close, well-played game on both sides. The Colts will then travel to Nashville, TN to take on the Titans. This means that the Dolphins will defeat the favored Ravens, and advance to play the Steelers. The Colts will play the Titans, a team they have been chasing all season, and the Colts will beat them. After dispatching a tough division rival, the Colts will face an unlikely team in the AFC Championship Game, the Miami Dolphins.

I know some of you might think that the Steelers will play in the AFC Championship Game, and they may. But, the point of this is to be bold. I think the Dolphins will play sound, tough football and attack the Steelers' offensive line. The game will be tough and physical, but in the end the Dolphins will come out on top. They will then host the Colts in Miami for the AFCCG. This game will be unique because for the first 1/3 of Peyton Manning's career, it was the Dolphins that were his nemesis, not the Patriots. There was also the old joke that Peyton couldn't win in Florida because during his college days, Peyton's school (Tennessee Volunteers) never beat Steve Spurrier's Flordia Gators. This joke was carried into the NFL, as Peyton and the Colts struggled to beat the Dolphins when they played in the AFC East together. In the playoffs back then, the Colts lost a tough game in overtime to the Dolphins back in 2000. This loss took the old Peyton can't win in Florida joke to new heights, but the joke was shot down when Peyton and the Colts won Super Bowl 41 in Miami, Florida in the middle of a monsoon. This time, the Colts will play the AFC Championship Game in Miami, and they will beat the Dolphins.

After defeating the Dolphins, the Colts will then get matched up against the NFC Champion, and that NFC Champion will be the Carolina Panthers. Yes, I know many want the so-called "Manning Bowl" between Peyton's Colts and Eli's Giants, but to make that prediction is not a "bold" one. And while much of this post is wishful, homerific thinking, having a Colts v. Giants Super Bowl almost 50 years after The Greatest Game Ever Played sounds like a beautiful dream come true. But, saying it is not making a bold prediction. For me, the Panthers will emerge from the NFC gauntlet.

Both Peyton Manning and Jake Delhomme are Louisiana legends. Steve Smith often calls Marvin Harrison his inspriation. The Super Bowl will pit two unlikely but very strong teams against each other, and it should reflect what the 2008 regular season was: One wild ride.

So, there you have it. These predictions are not made based on stats or looking at match-ups. This is just me making more silly predictions based on... well, based on nothing but me acting like a Colts homer and guessing blindly in the dark. The one guess I feel very good about is that if the Colts can get past a very tough and talented Chargers team this Saturday, I don't think anyone else they face will stop them. If they get past the Chargers, they will win out. But, beating the Chargers (or anyone else in this crowded field of great teams) will not be an easy task.

But, I think these Colts are up to it. They've given us fans a wild and enjoyable regular season, and the playoffs now feel like dessert after a very fine, well-cooked meal. Whatever happens, I'm very proud of this team and how they have played, and I know they will play with the same passion and determination that defines them as Indianapolis Colts.

Go Colts!

0 recs  |  Comment 18 comments |

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Mine

Colts over Chargers
Ravens over Fins
Eagles over Vikings
Falcons over Cardinals

Colts over Steelers
Ravens over Titans
Giants over Eagles
Panthers over Falcons

Colts over Ravens
Panthers over Giants

Colts over Panthers

same endpoint, different path

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 1, 2009 6:16 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Those are nearly identical to mine

Except I’m picking Minnesota over Philly. I don’t trust Andy Reid’s playcalling.

by Colts Homer on Jan 1, 2009 8:39 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd pick the Eagles to get further

but I don’t trust them not to screw it up.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 1, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

but FO loveeeeees them

i think the eagles will get past the giants once they put tavaris to bed.

http://www.irun.com/users/6967/downloads/Jays%20Win%20Back-to-Back%20World%20Series.mp3

by torontocoltsfan on Jan 2, 2009 11:25 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Nearly identical to mine as well

But I actually think Philly will beat Minnesota and beat them handily. I do have the Titans beating the Ravens though, and then the Colts beating the Titans (obviously). I hope I’m wrong about that because a Colts/Ravens matchup would be in Indy, but that’s my gut feeling. And I’m leaning toward the Giants beating Carolina again.

by ctnyc on Jan 2, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

My prediction

is that the Indianapolis Colts will win their second superbowl this decade in Tampa. This is destiny.

by Ayrshire on Jan 1, 2009 6:27 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Easier done than said. . . . .

Unlike all the “experts” that refer to San Diego as such a dangerous team for the Colts, I take the view that there’s good reasons they finished 8-8, and Peyton will expose those reasons like a great surgeon.
Norv Turner is a terrible game manager, and the Chargers’ secondary has Manning licking his chops. Not to mention that Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have some payback in mind for last year’s playoff game where the Chargers (although banged up themselves) eeked out a narrow victory over our injury-ravaged Colts.
Dom Rhodes should play a key role in splitting carries with Joe Addai and energizing the run game, giving Peyton his favorite weapon- play action pass!
Fear not, folks. The Colts are going to take the Chargers to the woodshed, and I for one am going to love every minute of this butt-kicking.

by oldecoltsfan on Jan 1, 2009 7:10 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

It's destiny

This could be Dungy’s last season and he could go win in his family’s hometown. It seems like every year there is a “team of destiny” that has had to overcome adversity or makes a great storyline in the playoffs.

Last year Eli Manning was booed at home. He then went on to be Super Bowl MVP. For the Colts, we had no chance. We didn’t have a run defense. There was no way we could get past Larry Johnson and the Chiefs. Even if we did beat the Chiefs and the Ravens, we might have to play the Patriots, and we always lose to them. There was no way. When we were down by 18, there was no way.

In 2006, Jerome Bettis, the best Steeler in Cowher’s tenure, was able to win in his hometown.

The Patriots ones don’t count because the only rightful destiny for them is 0-16 every year.

by Colts Homer on Jan 1, 2009 8:44 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

man i am nervous

i almost dont even want to watch and get all worked up…. im freakkkin out mannn

by zkmavz on Jan 1, 2009 10:59 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

You guys are nuts for taking all of the road teams in the wild card round. Not only that, but I must be the only person in the world right now that thinks Arizona is going to beat Atlanta. Take Arizona and the points guys, LDO. Here’s my prediction for the first round:

Cardinals +2 OVER Falcons
Colts -1 OVER Chargers
Phins +3.5 OVER Ravens
Eagles -3 OVER Vikings

by KingRichard on Jan 2, 2009 6:53 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

only two points

pretty insignificant spread. falcons are the lock of the week. cards are 6-0 vs. the division and 3-7 against everyone else. their “signature” win, beating the cowgirls at home.
taking 4 road favorites is generally a bad idea, but all four are the better teams. the dolphins getting 3.5 is the only potential value for gambling in my opinion but i like the ravens to edge out a 3 point win in that one.
the eagles will destroy the vikings, they’re firing on all cylinders and i like them or carolina to get to the super bowl.

the colts game is the closest call of the week.

http://www.irun.com/users/6967/downloads/Jays%20Win%20Back-to-Back%20World%20Series.mp3

by torontocoltsfan on Jan 2, 2009 11:32 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

That was the point actually, the spread being insignificant. Everyone is betting on the Falcons, but I think the Cardinals are going to win straight up. Vegas is basically baiting people, everyone to put all their money on the Falcons. The hype the Falcons are getting is only helping Vegas.

One thing you people seem to be forgetting about this game is that the Cardinals are at home and the Falcons have a mediocre pass defense. I think Warner, Fitzgerald, and Boldin are going to eat these guys alive.

by KingRichard on Jan 2, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

you could be right

i just read simmons’s column and he’s taking the cardinals aswell making some similiar points.
i can’t get over the fact that the cardinals can’t sell out their first home playoff game in a million years.

http://www.irun.com/users/6967/downloads/Jays%20Win%20Back-to-Back%20World%20Series.mp3

by torontocoltsfan on Jan 2, 2009 12:35 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

all 4 road teams aren't just favored

they are getting 60-75% of the bets on them.

Arizona-Atlanta is actually the least lopsided bet game of the weekend.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 2, 2009 12:49 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh and I completely disagree about the the Colts game. It’s not close in my eyes. I’d still bet the Colts if they were 7 point favorites.

by KingRichard on Jan 2, 2009 11:51 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

just looking at it objectively

i hope you are right on this one

http://www.irun.com/users/6967/downloads/Jays%20Win%20Back-to-Back%20World%20Series.mp3

by torontocoltsfan on Jan 2, 2009 12:36 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lastly, just an fyi to everyone, spreads aside, those are my picks to win.

by KingRichard on Jan 2, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Understimation seems like the trendy thing to do

I was having a conversation with my friend who’s been a Dolphins fan for quite awhile. I basically told him that the Dolphins are “the most average team in football.” And I didn’t mean that in a negative way. The Ravens have beat them this year but if the Fins can generate some offense, it might be different. And if the Fins play Pittsburgh, I honestly think they stand a good chance. Frankly, without turnovers Pittsburgh won’t beat them. Their offense is terrible, I’d go as far as to say that it’s by far the worst in the entire playoffs. They force feed Pittsburgh games like I’m going to be all giddy watching a team that is one of the more boring ones in the league. I can script every game without watching it. That’s saying they get by the Ravens though. So while I say that there are teams that are better at phases than the Fins, it’s their ability to be overwhelmingly average that’s actually scary. As much as average can be scary.

And you’re right, I have a hard time seeing it being a Colts/Giants SB. But I don’t think Carolina will be the team playing, I really think it’ll be the Eagles. Their Defense is amazing. It’s almost like they took the Colts and Ravens defense and mixed them together. Crazy cover schemes and pressure pressure pressure. I see them taking advtantage of Tavaris and if you recall they obliterated the Giants about 3 weeks ago. Now some people will say that Jacobs went out, but they stood a very good chance to beat the Giants earlier in the year when Burress and Jacobs we’re both healthy and the consensus of the media was “I’d totally let Eli go up to my porch and take a crap and be cheering him on at the same time.” The only thing that they have going against them is that Philly fans and the media aren’t using McNabb’s poster for diapers right now. It’d be in their best interest to just have Donovan stand outside the locker room and let the Philly fans that show up repeatedly kick him in the crotch while Reid is in the corner drawing up a gameplan that involves Deshaun Jackson on a 4th and goal on a power lead run.

In my personal opinion, I think there’s a better than outside chance it’ll be Colts/Eagles in the SB.

by monstersbox on Jan 2, 2009 4:06 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

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