2008 Colts RB Review

by shake n bake on Jan 10, 2009 12:02 AM EST Comment 16 comments

Depth Chart/review links

Najeh Davenport (cut)

Addai is still the top back in Indy. The Colts best rushing year (by DVOA, which likes the Colts run game better than totals or YPA because Colts backs rarely fumble) since Pre-knee injury Edge was with Addai as the featured back.

Year	Run DVOA	Main Back	Secondary Back	Split (1/2/Others)
2000	16.3%	Edge James	Lennox Gordon	98%/1%/1%
2007	11.0%	Joseph Addai	Kenton Keith	63%/29%/8%
2004	9.7%	Edge James	Dom Rhodes	85%/14%/1%
2005	8.0%	Edge James	Dom Rhodes	86%/9%/5%
2006	7.4%	Joseph Addai	Dom Rhodes	54%/45%/1%
2001	-3.4%	Dom Rhodes	Edge James	58%/42%
1999	-4.1%	Edge James	Keith Elias	97%/3%
2003	-5.5%	Edge James	Ricky Williams	74%/11%/15%
2008	-7.2%	Joseph Addai	Dom Rhodes	45%/44%/11%
1998	-7.4%	Marshall Faulk	LaMont Warren	89%/7%/4%
2002	-7.6%	Edge James	James Mungro	71%/25%/4%

Health is Addai's issue not production. When he got his chance to be the lead runner he was great (and then got banged up at the end of the year). In an odd quirk both the Colts best and worst season since Dom entered the league in 2001 were when Dom was not a factor in the Indy running game (2002 knee injury, 2007 lost year in Oakland). Evidence that Dom is a good, but not great runner? 60%-65% of the carries seems to be the most Addai can handle so a good secondary back is needed, but it would take a very good back to unseat Addai from the 1a spot.

Free Agents

2008 Stats

RB	Carries	Yards	YPC	DYAR	DVOA	Rec	Rec Yds	Catch %	TDs	Fumb
Darren Sproles	61	330	5.4	64(40th)	17.9% (10th)	29	342	85%	6	3
Derrick Ward	182	1025	5.6	274(4th)	25.9% (2nd)	41	384	75%	2	2
"Sticky" Ricky Williams	160	659	4.1	32 (34th)	-4.0% (34th)	29	219	74%	5	5
Correll Buckhalter	76	369	4.9	72 (35th)	11.1% (20th)	26	349	81%	4	0
Brandon Jacobs	219	1089	5.0	308 (2nd)	22.5% (3rd)	6	36	50%	15	3

Ward is the most attractive of the 5 with Sproles right up there too. Both are dangerous runners who are big contributors in the passing game. Buckhalter is the bargain option for a dual threat RB. Sticky Ricky is mediocre and Jacobs while awesome running is a black hole receiving.

Draft Prospects

Site	WalterFootball	Football's Future	New Era Scouting (Seniors Only)	Draft Countdown (Seniors Only)	NES Mock Draft
#1	Chris Wells (Ohio State)	Chris Wells (Ohio State)	Javon Ringer (Michigan State)	James Davis (Clemson)	Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)
#2	Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)	Knowshon Moreno (Georgia)	Rashad Jennings (Liberty)	Javon Ringer (Michigan State)	Chris Wells (Ohio State)
#3	C.J. Spiller (Clemson)	LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh)	Arian Foster (Tennessee)	Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon)	LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh)
#4	Donald Brown (UConn)	C.J. Spiller (Clemson)	Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon)	Andre Brown (NC State)	Javon Ringer (Michigan State)
#5	Shonn Greene (Iowa)	James Davis (Clemson)	Devin Moore (Wyoming)	Rashad Jennings (Liberty)	Arian Foster (Tennessee)
#6	Devin Moore (Wyoming)	Javon Ringer (Michigan State)	James Davis (Clemson)	Devin Moore (Wyoming)	James Davis (Clemson)
#7	Javon Ringer (Michigan State)	Shonn Greene (Iowa)	Marlon Lucky (Nebraska)	Arian Foster (Tennessee)	N/A
#8	Rashad Jennings (Liberty)	Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon)	Cedric Peerman (Virginia)	Cedric Peerman (Virginia)	N/A
#9	Jeremiah Johnson (Oregon)	Rashad Jennings (Liberty)	Keegan Herring (Arizona State)	Kory Sheets (Purdue)	N/A
#10	Arian Foster (Tennessee)	C.J. Gable (USC)	Ian Johnson (Boise State)	Aaron Brown (TCU)	N/A

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Comments

Great writeup

That’s really about all the information needed to start making opinions on this. Other than your mancrush on Shonn Greene, who do you like? Personally, the traits I think most necessary is to have a guy who does not fumble and who can hit the whole hard as hell to make 2 yards every single time we need it.

I don’t follow CFB enough to have any good opinions but as for the UFA’s, obviously Ward and Sproles would be good if not too different from Addai. Buckhalter is a guy I have always liked although there is some bias in that he has won me a fantasy game or two over the years when Westbrook is out. He always strikes me as a tough runner who isn’t flashy and doesn’t make mistakes. Philly however must realize the need for a solid backup so I imagine they’ll pay him.

All in all, we could definitely afford an upgrade at RB 1b. I have a hope that Hart can be that guy but it probably wouldn’t be until 2010 before he fully gets over the knee injury.

by psvirsky on Jan 10, 2009 9:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'm actually not huge on Greene as a pro yet

I want to see him stay in shape for the combine, have good interviews and show some hands in workouts, before I start pimping him as a pick for the Colts.

My homer mancrush that I want the Colts to draft is Mitch King. He was the undertackle in the Hawks cover 2. He’s a beast.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 10, 2009 10:24 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep, I want king too

King = beast…………but not like D-Freeney. The plus side is that he plays in the cover 2 and could step right in with our defense. But I dont think the Colts should go after a DT in the first round. Maybe a nice WR that could be Harrison’s understudy. Then go after a DT.

by colts9318rock on Jan 10, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

King's stock isn't that high

he’d have to move to DE with almost every other team in the league since he’s 280 at most, probably closer to 265.

here he’s the 18th ranked DT

here he’s the 16th ranked DE and projected 6-7th round pick

this is going to be a Marcus Howard situation. Dominant player from a big school who falls because of size and I spent draft day begging for the Colts to draft him every pick from the 4th round on.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 10, 2009 11:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For running backs

I like Javon Ringer. He’s a bigger back who could carry a good amount of the carries. He’s probably a third round prospect.

by Colts Homer on Jan 10, 2009 11:04 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Javon Ringer is only 5’9" plus or minus an inch and around 200 lbs. And I don’t really think he’s a third round prospect either. If he makes it out of the second round I will be really surprised, but who knows?

by KingRichard on Jan 10, 2009 3:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I guess it depends on who is coming out

And he plays big. He’s an inside runner who is very durable.

I hate Michigan State, but he’s pretty damn good.

by Colts Homer on Jan 10, 2009 3:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

no doubt

by KingRichard on Jan 10, 2009 4:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I have to adjust

from hating on him all year because people thought he was better than Greene, to know kind of liking him since he’s a great receiver and solid runner.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 10, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Here’s my list of my top 5 draft prospects in order:

1. Knowshon Moreno, Georgia
2. Chris Wells, Ohio State
3. Rashad Jennings, Liberty
4. Javon Ringer, Michigan State
5. Shonn Greene

by KingRichard on Jan 10, 2009 4:04 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

On a side note, the first two guys on that list are going to be nearly impossible for the Colts to land. Rashad Jennings has a great chance to be lurking around in the third or fourth round, and Javon Ringer has a chance, ableit slight, to be in the third round. Regardless though, if the Colts could grab any of those 5 guys they’ll be good to go.

by KingRichard on Jan 10, 2009 4:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I also think Jennings will be good

A good combo of size and speed. He will probably be around in the 3rd round.

by Colts Homer on Jan 10, 2009 4:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

This whole subject

is starting to remind me of the iraqi information minister. Remember back when the allied troops were surrounding baghdad? He would go on TV every night: “There is no problem! The US Troops are no where near us!” As bombs would go off… And then “There is no problem, the US is losing!” as US Planes would fly over his head. and then, “There is no problem, long live Saddam!” As a US Marine was holding the camera?

There is no problem, Joseph Addai is fine and productive! Dude, he was a 1st round draft pick two years ago, has never been over used like a Larry Johnson or Michael Turner or even an LT… “There is no problem, Joseph Addai is the best running back on the roster, he was just nicked up!”, uhm, he had 213 yards on 60 carries before he got injured. “There is no problem, Joseph Addai is a diety! Those 4 games were against 2 tough rush defenses in chicago and minnesota!” Rhodes had 42 carries for 143 yards with no backup on the roster!

Christ, stop the propaganda.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmGdAPjcgaM&eurl=http://www.only17points.com/&feature=player_embedded

by Nideak on Jan 10, 2009 5:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

oops

42 for 143 againt balt and tenn.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmGdAPjcgaM&eurl=http://www.only17points.com/&feature=player_embedded

by Nideak on Jan 10, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That would have me down on Addai if every other back the Colts had didn't also look like crap this year.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 10, 2009 5:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually there is a problem. Considering the fact that the Colts were wanting to draft MJD in the same exact draft tells you that Addai was drafted for a few different reasons. It was clearly a stretch on the Colts part to draft Addai considering he didn’t exactly have the greatest college career. However, all of the intagibles were there. He’s great out in space, he can pass block like there’s no tomorrow, and he has great hands.

It’s fairly clear to me that the Colts are trying extremely hard to find the next Edge. That’s why they let Dom go in the first place, they knew he wasn’t going to be able to fit that role. They saw the great production Addai had in the 2006 season and went in to the 2007 thinking he could become that 70%+ carry back, which he isn’t. Thus, the resigning of Dom to help Addai again this season since Mike Hart didn’t know the system at all. He just isn’t built to become an every down back, mostly because of his injuries. I think Polian is smart enough to realize that Dom is past his prime and there’s no point in resigning him when they can just as easily draft someone who is a lot younger and will actually fit the role that they need in a running back. Hart looked great, but people around here seriously need to chill on the constant annointing of him as the next great thing. He hasn’t proven anything yet, and the knee injury he suffered is going to hold him back for at least one more year.

I think it’s safe to say that the offense really hasn’t been the same ever since the departure of Edge and Stokley being healthy. I really do think Polian and Dungy realize this too, hence the constant signings of various running backs and the drafting of Gonzo in the first round.

by KingRichard on Jan 10, 2009 5:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs