Show me the Money

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 7:23 PM EST Comment 38 comments

I believe the consensus on this board regarding upcoming free agency is to

Re-Sign Jeff Saturday and Kelvin Hayden

Bring back Edgerrin James if price is right

Avoid all marquee free agents (i.e. Haynesworth, Houshmandzadeh, etc.)

Possibly nab a fullback like Terrelle Smith.

Obviously the Colts are a little tight on cap space with Marvin Harrison's contract a big reason why.

But regarding the 4 potential signings above - James, Smith, Saturday, and Hayden - what kind of contracts to you see them getting?

Anyone to use the Franchise Tag one? What kind of tag - exclusive, transitional, etc.?

I'm not terribly familiar with football salaries - more a baseball follower and football salaries look really low. But I'm thinking Franchise Saturday, Hayden at 3 years, $10 million (is that too much?), and James and Smith at 1 and 3 years respectively with annual values around $2 million.

What about these guys: Dom, Ratliff, Giordano, Josh Thomas, Darrell Reid and Tyjuan Hagler? (brought to my attention by shake and bake) Which guys are worth bringing back?

I'd go with Reid, Ratliff, and maybe Rhodes as a last resort if the other backs can't be signed.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Recent Colts' history shows

that whomever gets “The Tag” ends up with a great contract before the year begins.

That being said – I. WANT. SATURDAY.

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jan 13, 2009 7:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If I were Polian

I’d sign Hayden, tag Saturday and see if he can stay healthy. Hayden will probably be getting in the neighborhood of 4-5 mil per year to keep him as a Colt. Someone is going to yoink him if the offer’s too low. He’ll probably be one of the later signings depending on how much his agent wants to fish him and the back and forth. I know Polian wants him, and I know he hasn’t mentioned Saturday so that leads me to believe he’s just going to franchise him. There’s really nobody else to franchise at this point and a OL will be significantly less expensive that a DB to put a tag on.

by monstersbox on Jan 13, 2009 8:01 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

WOw

I just realized how low the salaries are before the first taste at free agency. They nearly multiply by ten or more.
So that’d be Franchise Saturday (roughly $7.5 million), sign Hayden to, let’s say, 4 years $18 million.
What about the two ‘backs?
Do the Colts have any RFA’s this year? Or any compensation picks?

"I'm a man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn. That's what kind of man I am. You're just a woman with a small brain. With a brain a third the size of us. It's science." - Ron Burgundy

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 8:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they'll get a good compensation pick for Jake Scott and maybe (not likely) a 7th for Utecht

The role player FAs are Dom, Ratliff, Giordano, Josh Thomas, Darrell Reid and Tyjuan Hagler

Dan Federkiel is the only RFA, I doubt they’ll even make him an offer.

how low the salaries are before the first taste at free agency.

That’s why building through the draft is so important, besides the first couple picks overall, rookies are cheap and stay that way for 3-5 years.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Compensation

How does the compensation system work? How is it determined which round the pick is from? Is it kind of like baseball, where a ranking system is divides the players into groups based on statistics, with the better ones getting higher picks? Or is it based on what round said player was drafted in?
Would Scott net a first-rounder?

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 8:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

it's kinda like baseball

there are 32 compensation picks every year. They go at the end of the round (and are 3rd to 7th round picks). Who makes that top 32 and which round they are worth (picks top out at 3rd round) is by some formula the the NFL doesn’t release to the public or the teams, but it depends on the value of players new contract and their playing time/stats. To get a pick a team has to lose more free agents than they sign and they can only get 4 compensation max.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 8:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ah, thanks very much

Can teams lose picks in any way other than penalties and trades?

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

signing RFAs

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 8:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what round of a pick depends on what offer a team puts on the RFA

there are 1st round, 2nd round, 3rd round and “round the player was drafted in” levels

higher levels mean the team has give a higher one year offer to the RFA.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 8:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

A comp pick for Scott?

I’ve been hearing this a lot… is there something to the Free Agent system that I have not been told, to this point?

If my memory serves me right, Jake Scott left as a UFA, and, as such, didn’t return any compensation to us.

Not only that, but he (and Utecht too) left last offseason… so any compensation would have been recieved in the 2008 draft, correct?

by hahasound on Jan 14, 2009 12:14 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They couldn’t have received a compensation pick because those are based on that players performance with his new team.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 14, 2009 7:05 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yep it's on a one season delay

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 14, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I want to know

How they score an O-lineman’s performance. I guess it’d be sacks allowed and…how well they controlled themselves at buffets? If it’s off sacks, then we should be getting a decent pick if we’re getting one.

by monstersbox on Jan 14, 2009 10:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

they probably weight it more towards his new contract's value for linemen

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 14, 2009 11:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

They probably take into account everything. How the team did, did they improve from the season before, blah blah blah, and then kind of just throw out a pick.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 14, 2009 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

there's some kind of set system, because I remember Polian saying that the method isn't released

but they have it figured out well enough to pretty much know what they are getting.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 14, 2009 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

Jake Scott made the Pro-Bowl, so I am sure that is going to help.

by yellowsnow on Jan 14, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Scott

Didn’t make the Pro Bowl. He’s the first alternate I believe. Hard to find accurate information on the alternates, but I believe he was 3rd in votes. Did someone pull out? I hope they do so this ups our pick. That’d be nice. But even being an alternate should help, like I said, possible 3rd, probably 4th. I just hope the 5 mil/year doesn’t keep it too low. Utecht was a 3 mil/year, so even though he had a crappy year, it’s alot more than the 695k we’re paying Dom. I heard from some sources that Faneca actually had a crappy year, so maybe him and Favre will do the right thing and not show up. There we go.

by monstersbox on Jan 14, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I was thinking

So considering the Titans and how their line was considered, that should mean we should have one of those top picks for him. Samuel will probably be giving the Pats a 3rd rounder, but after that, it’s looking like we might have an outside chance to get a 3rd (with the Titans best record and playoffs etc) but more realistically a 4th. That could definitely give us flexibility and options in the draft. We could trade our own 3rd and 5th for another higher second round and have 3 picks in the first two rounds. We could potentially get Jerry, Harvin (if he doesn’t fall or Shonn Greene, I’ll look into hypotheticals later) and a MLB in the second.

I knew Polian was a master, but wow, I didn’t even give him as much credit as he deserves. The way he’s manipulated free agency to continue to get picks is nuts. No wonder we’ve been so good for so long, we keep them young and he can draft his ass off.

We might also get a 6th rounder for Utecht.

Oh, by the way, this guy goes into ridiculous detail and it sounds spot on. Thank god he did it, otherwise I’d spend countless hours probably trying to do it myself and not come out nearly as accurate.

http://www.draftcountdown.com/forum/showthread.php?t=19143

by monstersbox on Jan 14, 2009 11:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

holy damn,

there’s an element to free agency and compensation that I never even realized.

I can’t believe I’ve gone this long without finding out about this.

Thanks a hell of a lot for showing me the link….

by hahasound on Jan 14, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

right, but

Scott was a RFA after the 2006 season, and we resigned him then…

After the 2007 season, he was a UFA, which, if I am correct, means that he was able to sign a deal with any team (in this case, the titans) without his previous team (the colts) being compensated.

tl;dr, I don’t believe that we get compensation for UFAs that leave. Scott was a UFA when he left.

That said, I’d love to be wrong. An extra 3rd/4th round pick would be dynamite.

by hahasound on Jan 14, 2009 4:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You need to read the link I posted

Because it explains what compensation picks are. You don’t have to be a RFA for your previous team to receive a compensation pick. Here’s the simple way to look at it that’s completely hypothetical:

Patriots don’t franchise Cassel, Cassel goes to Jets for 10 mil/yr. Patriots sign one guy for 700k per year but that’s all. The collective bargaining agreement tries to keep it fair so they put together a list and based off just the 10 million vs 700k you’d immediately be looking at probably a 4th round. But then Cassel makes the pro bowl and the playoffs. That would be moved up to a 3rd round pick. So the Patriots would receive a 3rd round pick. That’s how it works, it’s the system. 32 are given out per year I believe. Just read the article, it explains it. But we’ll be getting one.

by monstersbox on Jan 14, 2009 5:11 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Sign Hayden, Ratliff, Reid, and Giordano. I could see Hayden with a 4 year deal around 20 million. The rest could have 2-4 year extensions. I don’t know what would be appropriate in terms of salary though.

Tag Saturday (exclusive tag, no point in getting cheap with the heart and soul of the o-line) so he can work with one of the 2509823598 different possible center replacements.

I’d kill to have TJ on the team, but not at the expense of all the cap room. Although if Marvin retires it’d be worth considering.

Let Dom walk, and pass on Edge, unless he wants to retire as a Colt. The Colts need to draft a running back, preferably Rashad Jennings.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 8:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

RB

I think the Colts need a veteran running back who they can count on to bang out 3rd and shorts. Another rookie to go with young guys like Addai and Hart who haven’t really yet learned how to run and not to dance around.

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Considering no one seems to read my posts I’ll just quote myself:

Actually there is a problem. Considering the fact that the Colts were wanting to draft MJD in the same exact draft tells you that Addai was drafted for a few different reasons. It was clearly a stretch on the Colts part to draft Addai considering he didn’t exactly have the greatest college career. However, all of the intagibles were there. He’s great out in space, he can pass block like there’s no tomorrow, and he has great hands.

It’s fairly clear to me that the Colts are trying extremely hard to find the next Edge. That’s why they let Dom go in the first place, they knew he wasn’t going to be able to fit that role. They saw the great production Addai had in the 2006 season and went in to the 2007 thinking he could become that 70%+ carry back, which he isn’t. Thus, the resigning of Dom to help Addai again this season since Mike Hart didn’t know the system at all. He just isn’t built to become an every down back, mostly because of his injuries. I think Polian is smart enough to realize that Dom is past his prime and there’s no point in resigning him when they can just as easily draft someone who is a lot younger and will actually fit the role that they need in a running back. Hart looked great, but people around here seriously need to chill on the constant annointing of him as the next great thing. He hasn’t proven anything yet, and the knee injury he suffered is going to hold him back for at least one more year.

I think it’s safe to say that the offense really hasn’t been the same ever since the departure of Edge and Stokley being healthy. I really do think Polian and Dungy realize this too, hence the constant signings of various running backs and the drafting of Gonzo in the first round.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 9:22 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

But

Is Rashad Jennings the next Edge? It’d hard enough to get one in the 1st Round, let alone the 3rd or later.

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It’s definitely a risk, any draft pick or free agent signing is a risk. But you have to be willing to take risks. And personally, I could see him being the next Edge, yes.

Watch these videos and drool:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ohP5XBCu_ws

I did a write up on him not that long ago but I can’t find it, so I’ll make it short and sweet.

Rashad Jennings, Liberty
Stats: 6’1", 232 lbs
Report: Great hands, great blocker, deceptively fast. He’s a prototypical one cut runner. Very decisive in his cuts and loves to follow his blockers (very Edge-esque). Because of his size he doesn’t appear to be running fast, but once he sees a hole or an opening, the guy is like grease lightning. When he is out in the open no body is going to catch him.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 9:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well…he’s no Percy Harvin and competition isn’t great, but he looks solid.
Still, I’d still look to focus on a lineman or linebacker like Jason Phillips or Marcus Freeman.

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 10:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm not sure I like tagging Saturday

they don’t break up OL spots so he’d be getting elite LT money.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

So then..

If you tried to re-sign him, what would you expect to give him. The good thing about tagging is that it is only a one-year guarantee, making injuries less of a problem.

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 9:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What? He wouldn’t be getting elite LT money, he’d be getting elite center money. It’s not like the guy sucks all of the sudden. He just happened to have a bad year due to injuries. I still think he has a good 3-4 years left in him personally, but given what happened to him this year, franchising him and giving him one more year to see if he is still up to snuff. All the while your heir apparent is learning the system more and learning from one of the best. It’s a smart move I think.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

the franchise tag amount is based on the top 5 players at that players position

and his position according to the tag is offensive line. So he’ll have to get the average of the top 5 offensive linemen’s salary. The top 5 OL are elite LTs.

The 2007 exclusive tag of a OL was 7.5 mil, so that’s a non-exclusive tag would cost (I’d be happy to get 2 first round picks for Saturday so there’s no reason to put the exclusive tag on him).

7.5 mil for a year is way more than even the top centers have been getting. 6 mil a year in long term contracts (which means the cash is backloaded and most won’t actually get paid) is the standard for top centers I’ve been seeing in the recent deals. It’s not so much that it’s not an option, but it’s a lot more than centers go for.

For comparison his 2008 cap charge was 5.1 mil.

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 9:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah you’re right. I keep forgetting about the specifics with the tag. Regardless though, Saturday won’t accept a one year deal, or maybe even just a two year deal. And honestly, I think it would mean bad news for the o-line next season if he isn’t around for at least another year.

It’d be a pretty risky move to just let Saturday walk, especially if he decides to sign a 3-4 year deal with another team. I’d hate to see that happen.

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 9:38 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I was all for tagging Saturday until I saw they didn't split the OL

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

lol no kidding

This line will remain in my signature until the Colts draft Rashad Jennings in 2009.

by KingRichard on Jan 13, 2009 9:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What's the latest thinking on Sproles?

by LovinBlue on Jan 13, 2009 10:41 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Probably too expensive?

by J-Gao on Jan 13, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

when I posted the stats for the RB recap

I noticed he’s rather fumbley and hasn’t played nearly as much as I thought he had

7 fumbles in 148 career carries/catches

throwing in returns he’s touched the ball 365 times in 3 years. That’s about 1 per 50 carries, the same career rate as the notably fumbley Adrian Peterson.

Compare that to Dom and Addai.

Dom: 1 per 70 touches (15 in 1058) or 1 per 105 over the last 3 years (he had ball security issues his first few years)

Addai: 1 per 250 (3 in 748)

Shonn Greene for Heisman
Doak Walker award winner
144 yards per game
6.2 yards per carry
08 TDs per game > 06 GPA

by shake n bake on Jan 13, 2009 11:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs