Third Down Offense: Inside the Numbers

by mgrex03 on Jan 14, 2009 5:17 PM EST in Analysis Comment 5 comments

It's time for some statistical good news. Last week I looked at our defensive efficiency on 3rd downs, and it was atrocious (to put it nicely). This week, we look at the other side of the ball. You know, that side led by that Peyton guy.

I'm going to break the season down into 2 halves, with the first half ending after the Tennessee MNF game. The second half will be the last 9 games of the regular season, and the playoff game. You'll notice why the Colts struggled the first 7 games, and why they won 9 in a row.

Here is a summary of the first 7 games:

	First 7 Games
	Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Pct
Short (≤ 3)	11	13	7	10	18	23	78 %
Middle (4 - 7)	1	2	9	23	10	25	40 %
Long (8+)	0	3	9	38	9	41	22 %
Total	12	18	25	71	37	89	42 %
Pct	66.7 %		35.2 %		41.6 %

Some things to notice:

Short yardage rushing was very good in the early part of the season. I didn't remember that, but it was. I think the 2nd half of the season jaded my memory.
3rd and Longs were really bad (Baltimore game was almost half of the total number of conversions). Actually, they may be league average, but I don't know (working on getting that data). Along with that, the Colts almost had as many 3rd and Longs as they did Shorts and Mids combined. That helps explain a little why the offense struggled early on.
The Colts were 12th in the league after 8 weeks on Thrid Down Conversion Percentage. The team in first? The Texans (43/90). That was surprising to me, especially with the way they started the season. They were also 3-4 at this point.

Here is a summary of the last 10 games:

	Last 10 Games
	Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Pct
Short (≤ 3)	17	27	17	26	34	53	64 %
Middle (4 - 7)	1	4	16	31	17	35	49 %
Long (8+)	0	2	19	37	19	39	49 %
Total	18	33	52	94	70	127	55 %
Pct	54.5 %		55.3 %		55.1 %

Some things to notice:

Rushing, in general, went down over the win streak. It was especially bad on 3rd and Short. That should be over 80%, and it is just barely over 60% (63%). This is something that definitely needs addressed in the offseason, whether it be through a RB or OL. As a side note, however, the Colts were 4/4 against the Steelers on short yardage runs.
The Colts converted over 50% of their 3rd and long passes. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that is tops in the league, by far. Keeping drives alive, even with no running game.
In contrast to the first half of the season, short yardage situations were now the highest, as opposed to the long yardage ones in the first half. This directly relates to winning more games. 64% is still not good. This number needs improved (it bears repeating over and over).
The only game the Colts were under 50% was the playoff game, where they were 0/4 on 3rd and longs. This explains a lot.

Here is a summary of the full year (17 games):

	Total
	Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Pct
Short (≤ 3)	28	40	24	36	52	76	68 %
Middle (4 - 7)	2	6	25	54	27	60	45 %
Long (8+)	0	5	28	75	28	80	35 %
Total	30	51	77	165	107	216	50 %
Pct	58.8 %		46.7 %		49.5 %

Some things to notice:

Overall, the Colts finished #1 in the league in Third Down Conversion Percentage (not a bad jump from #12, huh?). The Colts also led the league in Conversions.
Again, I'm not sure what the league averages are, but just imagine how good the Colts could have been had they converted just a few more 3rd and shorts? One in particular comes to mind...
The Colts didn't try too often to catch their opponents off guard from 4 yards and up, as they only ran it 11 times (out of a possible 140). I know a couple of those were kneel downs as well, so it's a little skewed there too.

UPDATE: You can find the Game by Game stats here. There were too many characters for SBNation to handle, so I just made a separate page. Thoughts?

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Comments

Some interesting stuff there.

It didn’t feel like we were first in the league on 3rd down conversions during the SD game, did it?

The phrase “3rd and 2” will haunt me until next season…

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jan 14, 2009 5:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was thinking the same thing

3rd and 2 and the game is over…but what Manning did with the lack of running game throughout the year was bad ass and unfortuantely that failed conversion came at a crappy time.

by ColtsFanNChiTown on Jan 14, 2009 10:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Peyton deserved the MVP

considering he had practically nothing to work with.

I saw a table about injuries throughout the league (I will look for it in a moment) and did anyone realize that only 5 Colts players started all 16 games?

I will now go find the link….

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Jan 15, 2009 11:04 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Doubt?

Anyone doubt that we’ll convert every single 3rd and 2 next year?

by TouchdownMonkey on Jan 15, 2009 11:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

good read

I agree that the percentage in short yardage situations is terrible. I’m generally of the opinion that if your team can’t convert those 90% of the time, you don’t deserve to win. The fact that the Colts won 9 in a row while going 60% definitely says something, although I’m not sure what.

Either way I think it should be a priority in the offseason to turn that around and it shouldn’t be that difficult to fix.

by jochexum on Jan 14, 2009 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs