The Facts CHFF forgot

Bottom line for me is that Peyton has been great consistently every season he’s been in the league. Warner that those two great years in St. Louis, then this year. Besides, would someone honestly say “I’d rather have Kurt Warner as my QB than Peyton Manning.”? I don’t think that anyone (besides a few Cardinal or Ram fans) would argue Warner is better than P-money. I’d also like to point out that the Cardinals Defense has been playing lights out this post season, that may have something to do with those first three wins.

that Warner’s run game was coming on in the playoffs. Just go back and watch that first playoff game against the Falcons and watch how much Warner struggled when they went away from it after their first or second drive. As soon as they went back to it, Warner played lights out.

“Given Manning’s and Warner’s career accomplishments, we’d take Warner over Manning to lead our team six days a week and certainly on Sunday — especially if that Sunday is in January.”

And that’s why they aren’t hired by NFL teams to run personnel. They probably would have drafted Ryan Leaf #1 too.

On one spot so I can rant. I posted this on “This guy is retarded.”, however, seeing how that title might turn some people off, this is much better. Anyway, here it is:

"

And you know what? I’m really getting sick of this whole comparing stats thing. In fact, I have no clue, none, zilch why fumbles lost don’t factor into QB rating. They’re by far worse than INTs to me. BY FAR. And you know what? I’d honestly say that a fumble lost factors in at a 1.5 ratio to interceptions. And a fumble not recovered by the QB is the same as a QB throwing an interception and then the other team fumbling the ball, so I’ll factor that in as .5 So you know what I’m going to do? That’s right, I’m going to redo Warner’s rating.

Let me forewarn anyone reading this, this is pretty long and pretty much it’s just my thought process in coming up with a finished product. If you’re not interested in reading the entire thing, you can skip to the end and get the gist of it. The ratio used at the end was a 1:1 fumble lost to interception in the QB rating process. It’s beyond me why nobody considers fumbles a legit stat to hold QBs accountable for.

After finishing this, I’ve decided I’ve only scratched the surface. I’ll probably be doing this so often and title the posts "Ammo Against Stupid". Yeah, I thought AAS was a cool acronym, sue me. Anyway, that said, there was no bias in the numbers, everyone was done equally. I’m sure there’s others I could’ve added, but I believe 21 is sufficient enough to provide a legit baseline. I also figured out pretty early on that doing this without Excel was a pain in the ass, but I was on a roll.

If anyone was wondering how to compute QB rating it’s :
A = (comp. % – 30) / 20
B = (avg. gain – 3) / 4
C = TD% / 5
D = (9.5 – Int %) / 4
QB rating = ((A+B+C+D) / 6)*100

As you can see, it’s actually just a random set of numbers and there’s really no science behind it. You tell me how that equation shows you irrevocably what a QB is accomplishing? It doesn’t, so I’m going to use my ratio of 1.5 fumbles to interception ratio for the D value. And you can tell me I’m wrong, but as Nideak just stated, "Kiss my ass". Interceptions can be caused by tipped balls, hail mary passes etc, but a fumble violates the MOST important rule of football; "Never lose control of the ball. The ball in my hands is my responsibility. Losing the ball is my fault and I’m an idiot for doing so."

So here we go. And don’t act like I’m being biased, I’ll do Manning’s too.

1999 –
MIN – 123.95 (1 fumble loss, without, has a 143.00)
TB – 51.46 (1 fumble, not lost, previous was 56.2)
TEN – 95.1 (1 fumble, not lost, previous was 99.7)
Overall – 91.2 (previous was 100.00)

2001 -
GB – No fumbles, rating 90.4
PHI – 88.2 (1 fumble, previous was 94.5)
NE – 73.48 (1 fumble, previous was 78.3) 1 rushing td

Now there’s a 7 year break, which I believe is significant. But anyway:

2008 –
No fumbles so far, QB rating 112.1

Playoff rating with fumbles included – 90.7 (Previous was the 97.3 posted)

Look, if you base your stat compilation purely off QB rating and completely ignore fumbles, you’re leaving out a blatant screwup by a QB. Kurt Warner has 91 fumbles (19 recovered for a 79% fumble to loss ratio) in 110 games. That’s 1.07 fumbles PER GAME. With 40 of them being lost, as in, yeah, you pretty much just threw a -5 yard interception. If you’re wondering how someone with a 93.8 career QB rating could have a 56% winning percentage….I don’t think it’s rocket science. I won’t even use fumbles for his career, I’ll just used fumbled lost and equate them at a 1:1 interception ratio if anyone had a problem with my above formula. Which I still stand by. It’s an 89.0 QB rating. I’d still say factoring in fumbles not recovered by him is more accurate, which is 73. That’d be 85.1 with a 1:1 ratio.

Just to put that in perspective, when the Cardinals got stomped by the Jets earlier in the season, (56-35), Warner had an 84.6 QB rating. Well, it HAD to have been the defense right? Warner had 472 yards passing, a 70.2 completion %, 2 TDs and 3 INTs. But wait, he had 4 fumbles. I think the adjusted 67.1 QB rating (at a 1:1 ratio) is MUCH more accurate of his performance. If you don’t see the logic behind that, I don’t know how to help you. I could give you some coloring books and help you stay inside the lines to get you up to speed I guess.

Okay, now let’s take a look at this. Let’s look at the guys with career QB ratings at around 85.1+ and compare their winning % to fumbles. This will show you something very interesting. (Note: these numbers are based on games started with win % being factored by wins during games started. This does leave some room for error due to some players accumulating stats in relief or due to injury. However, I think I’m already doing enough, and if you want me to go through and take out those stats, you can go screw yourself.)

1) Young – 96.81, 65.7, 68 fumbles (19 recovered); net total 49
2) Manning – 94.7, 66.5, 52 fumbles (18 recovered); net total 34
3) Warner – 93.77, 51.8, 91 fumbles (19 recovered); net total 72
4) Brady – 92.9, 78, 65 fumbles (15 recovered); net total 50
5) Montana – 92.26, 71.3, 53 fumbles (16 recovered); net total 37
6) Pennington – 90.6, 56, 38 fumbles (16 recovered); net total 22
7) Brees – 89.4, 59.4, 47 fumbles (9 recovered); net total 38
8) Culpepper – 89.0, 45.5, 98 fumbles (31 recovered); net total 67
9) Bulger – 85.6, 52.8%, 36 fumbles (6 recovered); net total 30

This is 9 right here, give or take a little bit on order because I was using a "Start of 2007 career QB ranking" and updating it based on their current numbers. I’ll add in some other more known players to hash it out.

Marino – 86.4, 61.25, 110 fumbles (43 recovered); net total 67
Kelly – 84.4, 63, 76 fumbles (18 recovered); net total 58
Moon – 80.9, 50.2, 161 fumbles (56 recovered); net total 105 Included for obvious benchmark
Dave Krieg – 81.5, 49.7, 153 fumbles (47 recovered); net total 106
Tarkenton – 80.4, 53.2, 84 fumbles (43 recovered); net total 41
Fouts – 80.2, 50.6, 106 fumbles (38 recovered); net total 68

And here’s some younger guys that show a trend. Grossman and Roethlisberger show that strong defenses can cover for poor play. To a certain degree it explains Brady, but I wouldn’t group Brady with the super fumblers, but his numbers are inflated. And Carr….well….I just feel bad for the guy. And Rivers…well it’s nice to have a guy named L.T. And technically he’s still about 72 passes shy of the 1500 mark that everyone seems to want you to have, but he’s close. Just saying, guy goes 105.5 and goes 8-8? Don’t think something’s up? Okay.

Grossman – 70.2, 63, 19 fumbles (4 recovered); net total 15
Roethlisberger – 89.4, 71.8, 32 fumbles (8 recovered); net total 24
Carr – 74.9, 29%, 69 fumbles, (30 recovered); net total 39
Rivers – 92.9, 68.8, 30 fumbles (10 recovered); net total 20

One of the best examples is Troy Aikman. While he had 58 fumbles (16 recovered), the periods the Cowboys were dominant (92,93,95) 6 of his 16 fumbles were recovered (38). Well above his 27 career mark, especially considering only 10 were recovered over the other 9 years. Anyway:

Aikman – 81.6, 57%, 58 fumbles (16 recovered); net total 42

Favre, who everyone said was Mr. Football and only recently have people been dogging him (and seriously, I love the guy, but that’s not what this is about) has had the people that have said he’s choked suddenly disappear to never be seen again. And he is an anomaly :

Favre – 63.2%, 85.4, 157 fumbles (40 recovered); net total 117

So now let’s compile what their QB ratings SHOULD be. *Order listed by {adjusted rating}(non adjusted rating)[winning%] *

1) Manning – {92.6}(94.7)[66.5]
2) Young – {91.88}(96.81)[65.7
3) Montana – {89.25}(92.26)[71.3]
4) Brady – {87.2}(92.9)[78
5) Rivers – {87.1}(92.9)[68.8]
6) Pennington – {86.78}(90.6)[56
7) Brees – {84.85}(89.4)[59.4]
8) Warner – {85.27}(93.77)[51.8
9) Roethlisberger – {84.1}(89.4)[71.8]
10) Marino – {83.1}(86.4)[61.25
11) Favre – {80.2}(85.4)[63.2]
12) Culpepper – {79.73}(89.0)[45.5
13) Kelly – {79.41}(84.4)63
14) Tarkenton – {77.92}(80.4)[53.2
15) Aikman – {77.83}(81.6)57
16) Bulger – {77.13}(85.6)[52.8
17) Fouts – {75.3}(80.2)[50.6]
18) Moon – {74.49}(80.9)[50.2
19) Krieg – {73.37}(81.5)[49.7]
20) Carr – {67.63}(74.9)[29
21) Grossman – {63.68}(70.2)[63%]

As you can see, it sort of makes sense that Warner somehow has a ridiculous rating compared to his winning %. The first part was done in an argumentative fashion, however, I actually like how this turned out. It gets rid of the silly idea that the QB rating alone is what you should be judging performance on. They leave out the very significant stat of fumbling. Anyway, take it with a grain of salt. It’s only a beginning. I’ll probably be explaining later why some peoples winning % are so high compared to their adjusted QB ratings."

Does that sort of pot stirring controversy seeking, making up a story for publicity really need responding to?

We all know Manning’s great. We all know he’s better than Warner. Just let the stupid journalists write their stupid stories, it’s not like most of them know anything about football.

Never heard of this one….