Third Down Defense: NFL Version

by mgrex03 on Jan 22, 2009 11:13 PM EST in Analysis Comment 11 comments

A couple weeks ago I took a look at how well the Colts did in situational 3rd down defense, and it was not pretty. I wanted to see if those bad numbers were paralleled by any other team, or they were really that bad on Third down. Here's what I found:

	Colts
	Run	Pass	Total
Short (≤ 3)	32	29	31
Middle (4 - 7)	18(T)	19	21
Long (8+)	1(T)	23	17
Total	12	25	31 (T)

The table shows where the Colts rank in each of the situations. Some points on the Colts before getting to the entire NFL:

We all noticed the awful short yardage defense, and this proves it for us. The only team worse than the Colts on 3rd and short was the Rams (whose record reflected that).
The Colts fared better than I was expecting on 3rd and Long, as that seemed to be an achilles heel this year as well. 17th is middle of the pack, not good, but not bad either.
The Colts were one of 9 teams who did not allow a 3rd and long run conversion. Only 2 of those teams had more attempts against them: the Bears and Panthers.
Overall against the run, the Colts were better than average. It doesn't mask being dead last (86%)! on 3rd and short, though. Like we all said 2 weeks ago, this is completely unacceptable.

The table with all the stats are after the jump (sort them by clicking on the column headers), but I'll draw some conclusions here league wide:

The best teams against 3rd and short rushes only stopped offenses at 50% (Steelers and Browns). That was higher than expected. Average is stopping 1 out of every 3. The Colts need to strive for that next season (and it's what the Titans ended up with this season).
Overall on short yardage 3rd downs, the Eagles were best in the league at 45%. The Steelers were 2nd (their defense was pretty good this season, huh?) The same two teams were also the best against passes on 3rd down.
The Chargers were unbelievable on 3rd and longs, only allowing a 1st down 12.5% of the time. The Colts on 3rd and long against the Chargers in their two games? 1/8. Right on average for the Chargers. Their defense was better than they were given credit for.
Overall on third downs, the Steelers were #1 (31%). Their Super Bowl Opponent, the Cardinals? 27th (44%).

Our new Defensive Coordinator should take these numbers to heart. If we can only improve in one area on defense next season, it sure as hell better be on 3rd downs. Thankfully, the offense is a complete 180 from the defense (those stats coming this weekend or early next week).

	Short (≤ 3)						Middle (4 - 7)						Long (8+)
	Run			Pass			Run			Pass			Run			Pass
	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct
49ers	21	35	0.600	14	27	0.519	1	4	0.250	25	68	0.368	1	14	0.071	21	71	0.296
Bears	18	25	0.720	13	29	0.448	1	5	0.200	27	61	0.443	0	14	0.000	22	98	0.224
Bengals	26	39	0.667	13	35	0.371	1	6	0.167	34	62	0.548	0	5	0.000	19	71	0.268
Bills	18	33	0.545	11	21	0.524	0	12	0.000	22	53	0.415	3	12	0.250	19	71	0.268
Broncos	24	39	0.615	18	28	0.643	6	11	0.545	24	53	0.453	1	9	0.111	16	62	0.258
Browns	19	38	0.500	15	25	0.600	7	18	0.389	35	65	0.538	2	9	0.222	17	52	0.327
Buccaneers	20	34	0.588	16	34	0.471	2	5	0.400	28	60	0.467	0	9	0.000	15	72	0.208
Cardinals	26	37	0.703	20	34	0.588	1	7	0.143	22	47	0.468	2	13	0.154	21	69	0.304
Chargers	28	41	0.683	20	37	0.541	2	3	0.667	26	62	0.419	1	6	0.167	7	58	0.121
Chiefs	22	29	0.759	19	40	0.475	4	9	0.444	30	60	0.500	4	12	0.333	21	61	0.344
Colts	31	36	0.861	22	36	0.611	3	9	0.333	28	62	0.452	0	10	0.000	16	58	0.276
Cowboys	17	23	0.739	12	28	0.429	1	7	0.143	28	68	0.412	1	7	0.143	18	83	0.217
Dolphins	18	26	0.692	18	33	0.545	3	8	0.375	20	47	0.426	0	9	0.000	20	86	0.233
Eagles	16	27	0.593	11	33	0.333	4	10	0.400	26	63	0.413	0	8	0.000	16	86	0.186
Falcons	17	29	0.586	9	26	0.346	3	9	0.333	27	58	0.466	2	9	0.222	21	77	0.273
Giants	15	22	0.682	13	24	0.542	3	8	0.375	29	57	0.509	2	10	0.200	21	83	0.253
Jaguars	19	31	0.613	15	27	0.556	1	4	0.250	25	52	0.481	1	13	0.077	21	73	0.288
Jets	16	25	0.640	24	40	0.600	1	6	0.167	21	54	0.389	1	10	0.100	18	75	0.240
Lions	20	29	0.690	17	27	0.630	3	12	0.250	27	57	0.474	2	17	0.118	20	54	0.370
Packers	20	32	0.625	15	25	0.600	4	8	0.500	26	67	0.388	1	4	0.250	14	74	0.189
Panthers	21	30	0.700	15	30	0.500	4	7	0.571	27	63	0.429	0	14	0.000	20	74	0.270
Patriots	20	28	0.714	22	41	0.537	2	14	0.143	26	53	0.491	1	6	0.167	20	63	0.317
Raiders	28	37	0.757	16	27	0.593	2	11	0.182	33	65	0.508	2	14	0.143	22	78	0.282
Rams	20	24	0.833	16	23	0.696	7	18	0.389	13	42	0.310	1	16	0.063	17	64	0.266
Ravens	14	20	0.700	17	36	0.472	0	3	0.000	16	51	0.314	0	10	0.000	24	92	0.261
Redskins	13	21	0.619	20	39	0.513	3	6	0.500	20	56	0.357	1	7	0.143	16	78	0.205
Saints	23	30	0.767	12	31	0.387	4	7	0.571	27	67	0.403	1	6	0.167	15	65	0.231
Seahawks	14	23	0.609	20	38	0.526	1	10	0.100	37	75	0.493	1	9	0.111	21	67	0.313
Steelers	11	22	0.500	12	28	0.429	3	10	0.300	26	73	0.356	0	6	0.000	19	87	0.218
Texans	20	26	0.769	15	30	0.500	1	7	0.143	19	48	0.396	1	7	0.143	18	70	0.257
Titans	14	21	0.667	17	37	0.459	1	6	0.167	31	73	0.425	2	4	0.500	14	85	0.165
Vikings	12	20	0.600	18	32	0.563	2	8	0.250	16	46	0.348	2	10	0.200	18	87	0.207

	Run			Pass			Short (≤ 3)			Middle (4 - 7)			Long (8+)			Total
	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct	Cvt	Att	Pct
49ers	23	53	0.434	60	166	0.361	35	62	0.565	26	72	0.361	22	85	0.259	83	219	0.379
Bears	19	44	0.432	62	188	0.330	31	54	0.574	28	66	0.424	22	112	0.196	81	232	0.349
Bengals	27	50	0.540	66	168	0.393	39	74	0.527	35	68	0.515	19	76	0.250	93	218	0.427
Bills	21	57	0.368	52	145	0.359	29	54	0.537	22	65	0.338	22	83	0.265	73	202	0.361
Broncos	31	59	0.525	58	143	0.406	42	67	0.627	30	64	0.469	17	71	0.239	89	202	0.441
Browns	28	65	0.431	67	142	0.472	34	63	0.540	42	83	0.506	19	61	0.311	95	207	0.459
Buccaneers	22	48	0.458	59	166	0.355	36	68	0.529	30	65	0.462	15	81	0.185	81	214	0.379
Cardinals	29	57	0.509	63	150	0.420	46	71	0.648	23	54	0.426	23	82	0.280	92	207	0.444
Chargers	31	50	0.620	53	157	0.338	48	78	0.615	28	65	0.431	8	64	0.125	84	207	0.406
Chiefs	30	50	0.600	70	161	0.435	41	69	0.594	34	69	0.493	25	73	0.342	100	211	0.474
Colts	34	55	0.618	66	156	0.423	53	72	0.736	31	71	0.437	16	68	0.235	100	211	0.474
Cowboys	19	37	0.514	58	179	0.324	29	51	0.569	29	75	0.387	19	90	0.211	77	216	0.356
Dolphins	21	43	0.488	58	166	0.349	36	59	0.610	23	55	0.418	20	95	0.211	79	209	0.378
Eagles	20	45	0.444	53	182	0.291	27	60	0.450	30	73	0.411	16	94	0.170	73	227	0.322
Falcons	22	47	0.468	57	161	0.354	26	55	0.473	30	67	0.448	23	86	0.267	79	208	0.380
Giants	20	40	0.500	63	164	0.384	28	46	0.609	32	65	0.492	23	93	0.247	83	204	0.407
Jaguars	21	48	0.438	61	152	0.401	34	58	0.586	26	56	0.464	22	86	0.256	82	200	0.410
Jets	18	41	0.439	63	169	0.373	40	65	0.615	22	60	0.367	19	85	0.224	81	210	0.386
Lions	25	58	0.431	64	138	0.464	37	56	0.661	30	69	0.435	22	71	0.310	89	196	0.454
Packers	25	44	0.568	55	166	0.331	35	57	0.614	30	75	0.400	15	78	0.192	80	210	0.381
Panthers	25	51	0.490	62	167	0.371	36	60	0.600	31	70	0.443	20	88	0.227	87	218	0.399
Patriots	23	48	0.479	68	157	0.433	42	69	0.609	28	67	0.418	21	69	0.304	91	205	0.444
Raiders	32	62	0.516	71	170	0.418	44	64	0.688	35	76	0.461	24	92	0.261	103	232	0.444
Rams	28	58	0.483	46	129	0.357	36	47	0.766	20	60	0.333	18	80	0.225	74	187	0.396
Ravens	14	33	0.424	57	179	0.318	31	56	0.554	16	54	0.296	24	102	0.235	71	212	0.335
Redskins	17	34	0.500	56	173	0.324	33	60	0.550	23	62	0.371	17	85	0.200	73	207	0.353
Saints	28	43	0.651	54	163	0.331	35	61	0.574	31	74	0.419	16	71	0.225	82	206	0.398
Seahawks	16	42	0.381	78	180	0.433	34	61	0.557	38	85	0.447	22	76	0.289	94	222	0.423
Steelers	14	38	0.368	57	188	0.303	23	50	0.460	29	83	0.349	19	93	0.204	71	226	0.314
Texans	22	40	0.550	52	148	0.351	35	56	0.625	20	55	0.364	19	77	0.247	74	188	0.394
Titans	17	31	0.548	62	195	0.318	31	58	0.534	32	79	0.405	16	89	0.180	79	226	0.350
Vikings	16	38	0.421	52	165	0.315	30	52	0.577	18	54	0.333	20	97	0.206	68	203	0.335

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Comments

wow, i’m surprised our rankings on the 3rd and long/middle like you were. It felt like we had to be the worst or last 5 in the league.

by danorocks17 on Jan 22, 2009 11:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’ll have to disagree with one of your main points, i feel like you’re over-emphasizing the importance of 3rd down defense, especially 3rd and short, saying that if coyer can only improve one area of our defense, it has to be 3rd down. i honestly think we shouldn’t expect much more from this undersized d-line, they are not going to overpower anyone at the line of scrimmage and they are prone to getting pushed around, that’s just they way they are built, at least until we get some bigger, stronger bodies on rotation (i’m talking to you, jerry and raji). if anything, i think we should strive to improve our 1st and 2nd down defense. see where im going with this ? we may not be able to drastically improve our 3rd and short defense, but we don’t really need to, we just need to limit the opportunities. the other stats show me that we are about middle of the pack when it comes to 3rd and long’s/3rd and mediums’s, more heat (i.e blitzes) on the quarterback, together with freens’s and math’s natural ability to get to the passer could probably make us a top 5 defense in that category. basically, as i said before, i feel like you’re over over-emphasizing our 3rd down defense as a problem, when the real area in need of improvement is our 1st and 2nd down defense (it sure looked as if every time jones-drew touched the ball on 1st down it was a 6 yard gain). that would project on our entire defensive numbers, since better defense on early downs equals more 3rd and long opportunities which equals better 3rd down numbers. I guess drafting a nice run-stuffing DT should be a good starting point to all the improvement i’m talking about, that’s what we got the new guy for, right ? it’s all about improvement.

by ColtfanIL on Jan 23, 2009 1:12 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Yeah but those go hand in hand

The main goal in stopping the third and shorts is to be able to get some bigger guys that can clog lanes and stop the RB from getting 5 yards a pop. Those same guys are the ones needed to stop the 3rd and shorts. You sort of started to allude to this at the end but I think those really go together. If we improve our first and second down defense to stop the 5 yard runs, we should at the same time be improving our 3rd and shorts.

Basically, we can all agree that we need a DT. Any chance Pitcock comes back? And what happened to Ed Johnson after we released him? I can’t emphasize enough how much it sucks to have lost those guys. Could/should have been the starting DT’s for the foreseeable future and now we have to restock a position again that we had just recently restocked. Grr

by psvirsky on Jan 23, 2009 8:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I'll find the information

But ColtfanIL’s comment “I guess drafting a nice run-stuffing DT should be a good starting point to all the improvement i’m talking about, that’s what we got the new guy for, right ?” is pretty accurate. You need to realize though, that yeah, the DTs are responsible for the 0-5 yard gains because they have to hold the point of attack and allow the LBs to make plays, but if teams are consistently gaining 5-8+ yards on you, your LBs aren’t shedding blocks. That’s why DTs never have high tackle numbers. They hold the line long enough for the LBs to come up and tackle. That’s their job. I’ll get the information on all this, but the point about “it’s a start”, is key. While it starts at the DT, it’s not fair to say it’s completely their fault.

by monstersbox on Jan 23, 2009 10:14 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Looking at the LBers

You can see that they can’t shed blocks. Session, whom I praised effusively, was great at reading, reacting, and making tackles in the backfield before blockers could get to him. But we saw countless times in the playoff game alone where Hagler and Session were blocked by an undersized FB, WRs, TEs. You have to be able to get off of those blocks. And if your LBs are being blocked by linemen, thats when it becomes a situation where the line isn’t necessarily doing their job.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmGdAPjcgaM&eurl=http://www.only17points.com/&feature=player_embedded

by Nideak on Jan 23, 2009 1:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

And that’s why we’ll probably see a LB (if Jerry and Raji are gone) taken in the first or in the third. And I’m not knocking him because he’s one of my favorite players on defense, and I’d be surprised, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Keiaho moved to Mike, they started playing Wheeler at Will, and they either drafted someone and started him, or had intentions on starting him at Sam and Brackett lost his job by the end of the season and didn’t give him a contract after the season.

by monstersbox on Jan 23, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

i thought block shedding was more of 3-4 LB’rs thing (you know, bigger, stronger), our system is more about pursuit (i.e speed). our tiny speedy LB’rs cant shed blocks, but they shouldn’t need to, that’s not their duty, session was terrific when it came to what we do demand from our LB’rs, react and make the play as quickly as you can, and don’t miss a lot of tackles (and he is a great tackler, much much better than cato june in that department) plus he’s great in coverage. probably cant blitz to save his life, but i don’t think it is all that big of a shortcoming, although it it depends on what type of defense our new DC wants to implement.

by ColtfanIL on Jan 23, 2009 2:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Not true

Every LB is supposed to be able to shed blockers. Just because they play a reactionary role in a coverage system doesn’t mean that when they read run, react to run, they should be getting blocked out of their cleats. The D-line in a Cover 2 is responsible for the pass rush, and containing the run to allow the LBs enough time to react and make a tackle. If what you were saying was true, Warren Sapp would have averaged more than 2.3 tackles per game and never had more than 43 in a season. And Urlacher wouldn’t average 6.8 per game. The idea behind a T2, and the reason why DTs are so important, is because they must be able to hold at the point of attack and allow the LB to make a tackle on a run or the DEs (whose only purpose is to apply pressure) time to get to the QB. They aren’t actually supposed to stop the run or sack the QB. If they can, that’s a bonus. If the LBs react to run, come up to make a tackle, and the O-line has moved up like any O-line would against a Cover-2, that’s the LBs fault. The majority of the time, the 2 DTs in a T2 or Cover 2 are facing a 3-1 unless the other team exploits the rushing DEs to the outside and opens gaps. And that’s still the LBs responsibility. Like I said, the ONLY thing the DEs in a T2 that is directly upon them is to pass rush. If any person in a T2 actually gets a tackle on a running play, it’s a perk. That’s why T2 LBs need to be as fast and smart as they are. They’re requirements of player talent and speed is extremely high in a T2 over other schemes. They don’t run complicated plays, they just rely on completely controlling the 3-20 yard lines with zones and rely on their DEs to be good enough to apply pressure before the opposing teams receivers can get deep.

by monstersbox on Jan 23, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

to be fair

I think some confusion about block shedding comes from the colts. it may have been Dungy himself that said that LBs aren’t responsible for shedding blocks, only for filling a gap (meaning if everyone is in their gaps/fits (i swear people on TV just start using new words to stay ahead of the internet coaches)) and that would leave one defender free to make a tackle. I don’t remember when/where I read it, probably during the 06 season when the excuses were flowing for The Swinging Fence (Gilber ~~Gate~~ Gardner for those confused). Obviously its not that simple as you know, but its been put out there before as an excuse for our LBs.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmGdAPjcgaM&eurl=http://www.only17points.com/&feature=player_embedded

by Nideak on Jan 24, 2009 9:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs