Playoff Predictions (from human and computer)

by mgrex03 on Jan 3, 2009 3:49 PM EST in Analysis Comment 5 comments

It's time to put my predicting hat on, and dish out my picks for the rest of the playoffs. I'll also include what my predictor says will happen in each round, to see how well it does too. Here goes:

Wild Card:

Arizona over Atlanta: I don't trust rookie QBs in the playoffs. The Cardinals aren't nearly as bad as they have played over the past month. The Falcons are 3-3 when not playing in a dome this season, and the playoffs are a whole different animal for the Offensive ROY. I'll take the Cardinals.
Indianapolis over San Diego: It isn't ending here. The Colts can beat any team, anywhere. It will be close, but the Colts have shown all year that they can win any close game. Having Gates and Tomlinson will also be a big help.
Miami over Baltimore: See the reasoning above with the Falcons. I don't trust rookie QBs in the playoffs. Pennington will do just enough to win, as he's been doing all year. He doesn't turn the ball over. In the Ravens 11 wins, they've forced 28 TOs. In the 5 losses? Only 6. I'll take the Dolphins
Philadelphia over Minnesota: The Eagles defense will confuse Jackson all day long, and they are #1 in the NFC against the run. The Vikings will struggle to score, giving the Eagles the victory.
Predictor Picks:

Win %	Away	Home	Win %
99.3%	Atlanta	Arizona	0.7%
30.3%	Indianapolis	San Diego	69.7%
62.8%	Baltimore	Miami	37.2%
72.6%	Philadelphia	Minnesota	27.4%

Rest of my picks after the jump...

Divisional Round:

Indianapolis over Tennessee: Division rivals know each other the best, especially these two. The big difference in the first game were 2 TOs, that led to TDs for the Titans. Limit the turnovers, and the Colts should win.
Carolina over Arizona: Remember how I said that the Cardinals aren't as bad as they have looked in December? They may look that way again in Charlotte. The Panthers beat them earlier this year, and that was before Williams and Stewart starting rolling teams on the ground.
Philadelphia over N.Y. Giants: Call this a gut feeling. The Giants haven't looked the same since the Burress incident, and the Eagles know them better than anyone. Brian Westbrook will be the key, as I expect him to have a big game.
Pittsburgh over Miami: Sloppy weather causes turnovers. I think it won't be as bad as their matchup from last season, but it won't be that much better. Low scoring, won by the better defense.
Predictor Picks:

Win %	Away	Home	Win %
60.3%	Baltimore	Tennessee	39.7%
54.5%	Minnesota	Carolina	45.5%
54.5%	Atlanta	N.Y. Giants	45.5%
48.5%	San Diego	Pittsburgh	51.5%

Championship Round:

Philadelphia over Carolina: Three teams in a row that run much better than they pass. Expect lots of blitzing from the Eagles, causing turnovers. Again, call it a hunch, but I think the Eagles make it to the Super Bowl.
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh: The Colts have done it once, and they'll do it again. The first time out, Manning threw downfield almost exclusively. Expect the Steelers to put a safety or 2 deep (much like the Ravens usually do against Manning), and Manning will pick them apart underneath. Back to Tampa for Dungy and the Colts
Predictor Picks:

Win %	Away	Home	Win %
62.8%	Atlanta	Minnesota	37.2%
61.9%	Baltimore	Pittsburgh	38.1%

Super Bowl:

Indianapolis over Philadelphia: What kind of fan would I be if I didn't pick the Colts to win the Super Bowl? You absolutely cannot blitz Manning, and that's all the Eagles do. Manning and Dungy win ring #2.
Predictor Picks:

Win %	Away	Home	Win %
52.7%	Atlanta	Baltimore	47.3%

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Comments

Ahem...

POOP ON THE PREDICTOR!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmGdAPjcgaM&eurl=http://www.only17points.com/&feature=player_embedded

by Nideak on Jan 3, 2009 3:57 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

If we were to go by the Predictor then wouldn't the Raidors be working on a perfect season and be favored to win the Super Bowl?

by MarkFive05 on Jan 3, 2009 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

It will be close, but the Colts have shown all year that they can win any close game.

I was going to disagree here, but I looked at the Chargers year-long results. They haven’t been on the wrong end of a blowout or even a run-of-the-mill beating this year. Their average margin of loss is 4 1/4 points.

Good luck. I do think you’ll win — no one is playing better right now.

As Mr. Sloan always says, there is no "I" in team, but there is an "I" in pie. And there's an "I" in meat pie. Anagram of meat is team... I don't know what he's talking about. --Shaun of the Dead

by JohnHannahRules on Jan 3, 2009 4:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I think you vastly overrate the Eagles

I don’t get why everyone is simply overlooking the game against the Redskins 2 weeks ago, a “must-win” (sure, they lucked out that everyone else they needed to lose did, but at the time nobody thought they could make the playoffs if they lost that game) in which they almost got shut out by a Redskins team that had all but given up on the season (2-6 down the stretch). From week to week the Eagles can look like a Super Bowl contender or a team that might give the Lions a game, and they absolutely cannot win close games. I think the Cardinals have a better shot at making the Super Bowl than the Eagles. That said, as a Giants fan, I don’t want to play them, b/c you never know what’ll happen between division rivals.

Anyway, good luck to the Colts, I wouldn’t mind watching a Manning Bowl this year!

by cjmulrain on Jan 3, 2009 6:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

rookie qb

You don’t trust rookie qbs, and I don’t either. Most people don’t, but your predictor freakin’ loves them. Are you using a BCS computer model to get the whacked out SB predictions?

by ndhogmorris on Jan 3, 2009 11:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs