Third Down Defense: Inside the Numbers Revisited

by mgrex03 on Jan 7, 2009 11:58 AM EST in Analysis Comment 8 comments

At the half way point in the season, I looked at how well the 3rd down defense was fairing, based on Run/Pass, and the distance. It's time to look at the 2nd half of the season, and see if the Colts improved at all.

Here are the final numbers for all 17 games, and after the jump I'll put each individual game (from the 2nd half), so you can see how the defense did against each opponent.

	Total
	Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Pct
Short (≤ 3)	32	36	21	38	53	74	72%
Middle (4 - 7)	3	9	33	67	36	76	47%
Long (8+)	2	12	18	64	20	76	26%
Total	37	57	72	169	109	226	48%
Pct	64.9%		42.6%		48.2%

Some things to notice:

Getting outraged at the short yardage rush defense must have lit a fire under the defensive lineman, as they did stop 4 of them over the 2nd half of the season, none bigger than the first one.
The Browns had 20 3rd down plays against the Colts, which tied for the most in a single game this season. One of the games it was tied with? The Bengals were 4/20 in their epic tie against Philadelphia.
I mentioned before that teams are only 3/16 running the ball on 3rd and 4 or more in the first half of the season. It was only tried against the Colts defense 5 times in the last 9 games, and 2 of them were this past weekend against the Chargers. I guess teams figured out you can't catch the Colts off-guard.
The overall percentages changed very little from the first half to the second half of the season, which is a little disappointing, as the level of competition was much lower in the 2nd half. The best game of the 2nd half was the Titan game, which is also a little disappointing, since the starters didn't play for either team more than 1 series.
Overall, the Colts finished (tied for) dead last in the league in 3rd down defense. As a comparison, the Ravens had almost the same number of 3rd down attempts against their defense, and they gave up 30 less conversions. They finished 3rd overall. This is definitely one area that needs addressed in the offseason.

Like I said above, game by game numbers are after the jump. Thoughts?

	Pittsburgh						Houston
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	2	3	4	5	6	8	2	3	1	2	3	5
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	2	5	2	5	0	0	0	1	0	1
Long (8+)	0	0	2	5	2	5	0	0	1	2	1	2
Total	2	3	8	15	10	18	2	3	2	5	4	8

	San Diego						Cleveland
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	4	5	1	2	5	7	3	4	2	2	5	6
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	5	8	6	10
Long (8+)	0	0	0	4	0	4	0	0	0	4	0	4
Total	4	5	2	7	6	12	4	6	7	14	11	20

	Cincinnati						Detroit
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	1	1	2	3	3	4	2	2	1	1	3	3
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	2	4	2	4	0	0	0	3	0	3
Long (8+)	0	0	1	6	1	6	0	1	1	3	1	4
Total	1	1	5	13	6	14	2	3	2	17	4	10

	Jacksonville						Tennessee
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	1	1	2	4	3	5	1	1	1	3	2	4
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	1	3	1	3	0	0	1	3	1	3
Long (8+)	0	0	3	5	3	5	0	0	0	3	0	3
Total	1	1	6	12	7	13	1	1	2	9	3	10

	San Diego (Playoffs)						2nd Half/Playoff Total
	Run		Pass		Total		Run		Pass		Total
	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att	Conv	Att
Short (<= 3)	0	0	0	3	0	3	16	20	14	25	30	45
Middle (4 - 7)	0	0	3	3	3	3	1	2	15	31	16	33
Long (8+)	1	2	2	6	3	8	1	3	10	38	11	41
Total	1	2	5	12	6	14	18	25	39	94	57	119

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I wish I hadn’t read this to be honest.

by KingRichard on Jan 7, 2009 12:16 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Pittsburgh exposed us

I’ve said it before, in 2005 when the Steelers made their SB run, they not only shed light on how to beat us, the busted up in there with a monster truck with light racks and flood lights blaring. Bettis was driving it wearing a cowboy hat going “WOOO WOOO!”

Before everyone used to try to keep up with us scoring wise. When they found out that was pretty much a very poor idea, they saw the success the Steelers had against arguably our best team in 2005. Simple, they don’t have the DTs to stop the run if they pressure with the ends and drop their LBs. And since then we’ve been trying to just get ONE that we can rely on. We’re pretty snakebitten at the position.

I actually think Polian has been trying to tempt the DTs we’ve gotten by giving them copies of Madden with their images replacing whoever was on the cover that year. I mean seriously, we tried to get McCargo off the Bills with his BULGING (don’t ask me why I think that word’s so funny, I mean it’s the medical term for it, it’s not like I’m just saying it) disc in his spine. When that failed we got a dude of the Titans practice squad. And Foster started at LB and would be an average sized LB in the NFL. We haven’t had a true DT that’s been able to stay healthy. The entire Tampa 2 hinges on the DTs. Everything starts there. You can’t get pressure if your DTs can’t penetrate.

Just so happens the Colts are a classy organization and they cut Ed Johnson for smoking the dope. Not saying it ruined our season, and not saying I don’t 100% agree with the decision, but our season would probably have be significantly different with one dude. At least defensively.

If you actually break it down by when Antonio Johnson, Foster, and Brackett were all in, they were doing great. Looked like we’d fixed alot. But then Brackett went out and shortly after so did Brackett. Dungy wasn’t smokescreening when he said Brackett was pretty much the equivalent to a QB on defense. In a Tampa 2, most of the other positions are the appendages and the MLB is the brain.

But, we’ll be significantly improved next year I think. Foster is showing some serious upside as a second speedy DT. If we draft/trade/FA for a legit run stuffer/penetrating 300lber (Peria Jerry, DO IT), Freeney and Mathis will get more pressure, the zones will be more confusing, and we can keep Sanders in coverage more often or bring him down for power running teams to be extremely effective.

I look at it like this. Personel per personel we’re as good or better than the early 2000s Tampa Bay defense, except we don’t have our version of Warren Sapp. You might not like him, but that team was the dominant defense it was because of him. That DT allows all the rest of your talent to shine through. And our guys have been “glowing” for years.

by monstersbox on Jan 7, 2009 12:34 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I’ll take any of the following DT’s please:

Peria Jerry
Sen’Derrick Marks
B.J. Raji
Terrance Taylor
or the giant Terrence Cody (please ftlog Polian draft this guy)

by KingRichard on Jan 7, 2009 1:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I had a typo in there. I said Brackett went out and then Brackett went out. That’d be a crappy week for sure. I meant Foster and Brackett but you guys probably got the idea.

by monstersbox on Jan 7, 2009 7:30 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Albert Haynesworth

This guy would be a HUGE upgrade!

"I'm a man who discovered the wheel and built the Eiffel Tower out of metal and brawn. That's what kind of man I am. You're just a woman with a small brain. With a brain a third the size of us. It's science." - Ron Burgundy

by J-Gao on Jan 7, 2009 6:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs