Week 5: Inside the Numbers

The Bye week is upon us, with the Colts sitting at a perfect 5-0, including a thumping of division rival Tennessee.  Here are some of the interesting things after this weekend: 

  • The Colts won their 7th straight Road game, which ties a franchise record.  There is still a long way to go to break the NFL record, which is 18 games, set by the 49ers in 1988-90.
  • Peyton Manning threw for 300 yards in his 5th straight game, now only 1 back of the NFL record.  I feel pretty confident he'll at least tie this record, before playing against the 49ers on Nov. 1.  
  • Manning also passed Fran Tarkenton for 3rd all time in Touchdown Passes, now only sitting behind Brett Favre and Dan Marino.  Once Favre finally retires, it should take Manning about 4 years to pass him.
  • The Colts won their 14th straight game, breaking the franchise record set in 2005.  Let's keep that number growing.  The record is 21, set by the Patriots.

It looked like the Colts completely dominated the Titans, just by watching the game.  But how did the numbers look?  Follow me over the jump to find out...

Here are the stats from Week 5:

Statistic Offense Rank Defense Rank Off/Def Above Off/Def Below Record
DSR 81.8% 5 52.2% 5 Y N 6-0
ANPY/A 7.364 12 3.056 4 Y N 7-0
Turnovers 2 15 2 6 N N 5-3
Yds/Drive 36.70 9 22.27 6 Y N 7-1
ToP/Drive 3:21.8 4 2:23.8 6 Y N 6-2
Yds/Play 5.478 14 4.298 9 Y N 9-0
First Downs/Drive 2.30 7 1.09 6 Y N 6-2
3rd/4th Down 60.0% 3 33.3% 11 Y N 7-1
Avg Start Pos 31.3 9 27.0 14 Y N 6-1
3 and Outs 2 3 6 3 Y N 7-2
RZ Eff 85.7% 8 0.0% 1 Y N 6-1
Plays/Drive 6.700 4 5.182 10 Y N 6-4
Penalty Yds / Play 0.716 10 1.561 4 Y N 5-2
RB Success 52.2% 4 45.0% 15 Y N 4-1
Yds/Carry 2.52 25 4.29 22 N Y 2-3
Net Punts Yds/Game 45.50 4 36.50 3 Y N 2-2


Some thoughts:

  • Look at those Defensive Rankings!  Top 6 ranking in the 5 most important stats, as well as in First Downs / Drive.  Great week for the defense.
  • Specifically on Defense, ANY/A was great once again, only giving up 3.1 / attempt.  Again, we did this with 2 Rookie starting corners, and Tim Jennings.  Great job again by the secondary.
  • The Colts did not allow the Titans in the Red Zone, making their Efficiency a big fat 0%.  That's the way to do it.
  • The Colts forced 6 3 and Outs, which is a season best.  Let's hope they shoot for a few more than that against the Rams.
  • I have to mention the offense at some point, right?  Manning, statistically, had his worst game of the season, and was still better than half the teams throwing the ball this weekend.  He'll need some big efforts in the upcoming weeks to get back on track to chasing his 2004 records.
  • RB Success Rate was 52.2%, which was 4th best in the league.  Nice job by both Addai and Brown, as well as the O-Line.
  • Check out the Off/Def Above Average Column.  Only 2 of 19 stats where the Colts did not dominate on both sides of the ball.  I'll have to go back and look over the years to see if any other team has been that dominant in all facets of the game.

Here's how the season looks after 5 weeks:

Statistic Offense Rank Best Defense Rank Best Record Win %
DSR 79.6% 2 Ravens 68.5% 11 Broncos 30-2 0.938
ANPY/A 9.235 1 Colts 3.952 5 Giants 40-1 0.976
Turnovers / Game
1.2 8 Packers 1.6 12 Saints 36-8 0.818
Yds/Drive 42.17 1 Colts 28.98 14 Giants 32-4 0.889
ToP/Drive 2:58.8 6 Dolphins 3:04.6 29 Giants 31-10 0.756
Yds/Play 6.724 2 Cowboys 4.412 4 Eagles 35-6 0.854
First Downs/Drive 2.17 5 Ravens 1.80 22 Giants 27-6 0.818
3rd/4th Down 50.0% 2 Dolphins 46.5% 31 Broncos 24-6 0.800
Avg Start Pos 29.1 18 Bears 27.6 8 Falcons 33-4 0.892
3 and Outs / Game
2.4 4 Cowboys 3.2 22 Eagles 23-9 0.719
RZ Eff 70.6% 7 Vikings 62.3% 14 Vikings 23-10 0.697
Plays/Drive 6.271 6 Patriots 6.569 31 Giants 22-15 0.595
Penalty Yds / Play 0.671 6 Seahawks 0.636 26 Seahawks 39-24 0.619
RB Success 48.7% 10 Dolphins 52.9% 27 Eagles 28-13 0.683
Yds/Carry 3.34 28 Cowboys 4.06 16 Titans 19-20 0.487
Net Punts Yds/Game 42.87 7 Seahawks 41.19 17 Bengals 15-15 0.500


Some additional thoughts here:

  • The Colts offense is in the Top 10 in all but 2 categories, one of which has very little to do with the offense (Start Position).  The offense is the best in the league (more on this later).
  • The Colts lead the league in Yards / Drive, going almost 4 more yards / drive than #2 (Steelers).  That's the same difference between the Steelers and the Falcons, who are 10th.  Spectacular.
  • The 3rd/4th Down Conversion Rate is back to where it was in 2008, right at 50%.  Let's keep it right there.
  • The Defense keeps improving their numbers, and has made quite a jump since the Dolphins game, especially in Time of Possession / Drive.  29th still doesn't look very good, but from where they came from, it is a great number.  Hopefully it continues.
  • Drive Success Rate (DSR) and ANY/A are winning at an even better rate than the past 8 years, with only 3 losses in 73 games!  It's worth repeating...Passing the ball and stopping the pass is winning at a 97.6% rate this year.  Please spread the word, and point them back here for evidence.

A new addition this week, which will come tomorrow, is a Winning Stats Power Ranking, taking into account all 19 stats, weighting them accordingly.  I've done it for Offense, Defense, and Total (little preview:  Colts are #1 in offense).  I'll also include a Strength of Schedule, and a Future Schedule ranking, to see how hard / easy a team's schedule has been, and how it may play into their rankings.  I've also included this into the Prediction contest, under "Power Ranking".  It's doing quite well so far this year.  Wish I would have had it before visiting Las Vegas.

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