Week 5 Advanced Stat Roundup

The Colts hold on to the #4 spot again in DVOA, but take over as #1 in DAVE (27% preseason projection this week) as preseason favorite San Diego has fallen into the bottom of the league in DVOA thanks to a through gutting of their interior line by injury and by more recent DAVE favorite Baltimore falling in the DVOA ratings for a second straight week after a second straight losing performance.

The odds the Colts don't make the playoffs is now under 1% according to FO or in other words nearly 4 times less likely than the Colts going 16-0 (3%). They also give the Colts a 96.4% chance of re-claiming the AFC South title, a 85.3% chance of a 1st round bye, a 42.4% chance of an AFC title and a 24.7% chance of winning the Superbowl.

 

Advanced NFL Stats efficiency numbers grow more enamored with the Colts each week. The Colts remain the firm #1 in the rankings with a 86% probability of beating an average team on a neutral field. They are very close to claiming not just the #1 spot in offense, but they sit at #2 defensively as well, with a pass D that ranks 2nd to the Giants and a league average run D. The Colts have been the 5th least penalized team in the league.

 

More DVOA than you can shake a stick at after the jump.

The Colts Offense has the top overall rating in the league, and is the #1 passing O. The Colts broke into the top half of rushing Os now at 15th in the league. On defense they hop up a spot to 8th in the league, with the #5 pass D and #22 run D.

Over to individual players Peyton had a slightly down week and is no longer on pace for the 2nd most DYAR and 2nd highest DVOA of the last 15 years. He's only on pace for 3rd in DYAR (to Brady's 07 and his own 04) and 4th in DVOA (to his 04, Brady's 07, Boomer Esiason's 97).

BBS' piece on the lack of basis behind any Addai bashing this year was well timed as DVOA was pleased with Joseph's day against the Titans (or the opponent adjustments up'ed the value for his previous games). Addai now ranks 14th both in DYAR and DVOA. Brown still lags a bit behind Addai overall, but he rose as well (his DVOA is now nearly positive), now the owner of 14 entire defense adjusted yards above replacement as opposed the single lonely DYAR he had last week. My perception of Brown as less consistent that Addai has moved even further into the wrong, as Brown has passed up Addai in success rate at 52% to Addai's 50% (11th and 14th in the league respectively). Over on the receiving end Addai has caught an amazing 93% of his targets (26 of 28). Donald Brown still doesn't have much of a sample (only 9 targets), but he made a TON of those few. He would rank 1st in receiving DVOA if the cutoff was lowered to 9 targets instead of 10.

Like last week the Colts have two top 15 WRs in both DVOA and DYAR, unlike last week it's Austin Collie (13th DYAR, 10th DVOA) joining Reggie Wayne (3rd DYAR, 11th DVOA), instead of Pierre Garcon (38th DYAR, 27th DVOA). Collie has caught 71% of his targets, Wayne 67%, Garcon 52% (though Pierre is the only one of the 3 averaging over 10 yards a target so the lower catch rate is at least partly excusable).

At tight end Dallas Clark overtook the idle Antonio Gates, and surprise DVOA superstar Brent Celek for the top spot in DYAR. He ranks 9th in DVOA and has caught a blistering 83% of his (46) targets. Second on the team only to Addai (who has 20 less targets).

Despite an Ugoh scare the Colts line ranks 2nd in adjusted sack rate. The running game looked a bit improved as well with the Colts nearly entering the top half of the league in adjusted line yards, reaching 12th in power success and making the sub-par 10+ yard run% and stuffed% numbers a bit prettier. Looking at directional success the Colts run relatively well up the middle and behind left tackle, but have some trouble going wide either way and can't get much of anything going behind right tackle.

On the DL the Colts rank 11th in adjusted sack rate. The numbers tell an expected story in run D. Sub par overall. Terrible at stopping power situation runs, rarely get RBs in the backfield, but they're allowing few big plays. Directionally the sides a pretty balanced (with the offensive left, manned by Freeney's looking a bit better than Mathis' offensive right), but inside-out is a very large split with league average success on the edges and a 30th ranking between the guards.

On special teams the Colts are in the top half of the league. Kickoff coverage has been top 5 in the league (when did you ever think you'd hear that), with punt coverage slightly above average, and a bit below average ratings on returns and FG/XPs canceling out the positives for their overall ranking of 16th.

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