Advanced Stat Roundup: Week 7

The Colts rose a place to 2nd in FO's DVOA (Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average) sitting just a touch behind the Saints for the top spot.The Colts are DVOA's top ranked offense, sit at 8th defensively and rank 15th on special teams

Trying a table for a more compact presentation. The DVOA value is how much better or worse a unit is than the average team's. Defensive DVOA is approximately* equal to DVOA allowed, so a negative DVOA is a good thing on defense.

Pass Offense Pass Defense Run Offense Run Defense
64.7% (1st) -15.5% (5th) 1.5% (13th) -0.2% (23rd)

 

*= a few types of plays are counted for one side and not the other. For example an offense is penalized by DVOA for a fumbled snap, but the defense doesn't get any credit for the QB/Center's incompetence.

 

The Colts remain on top for the last week of FO's DAVE (a blend of FO's preseason projection and to date DVOA designed to even out some of the issues with a small sample of games), next week FO begins running Weighted DVOA in it's place, which puts more emphasis on more recent games than the first few of the season. It's built off a smaller sample than total DVOA, but gives a better idea of how a team is playing recently (particularly important for teams that have suffered key injuries).

The Colts remaining schedule, which had seemed unspectacular, is beginning to stiffen with future opponents looking stronger (and the woeful Rams no longer part of the future schedule). The Colts future schedule is ranked the 8th hardest in the league by DVOA.

The Colts playoff odds remain unchanged with the win over the Rams counterbalanced by a tougher looking schedule and the Texans division title hopes still clinging to life after a win over the Cards. The Colts are still FO's favorites to win the Superbowl with odds a bit over 20%.

 

The efficiency rankings at Advanced NFL stats still love the Colts, ranking the #1 with an 87% chance of beating an average team on a neutral field. The Colts rank 3rd offensively and 9th defensively, with a formidable combination of the #1 pass O and #1 pass D.

 

DVOA/DYAR for individual Colts after the jump.

Peyton Manning is still on a blistering DVOA (per play value) pace over 50% (only done 3 times in the last 16 years). He ranks just second in DYAR (total value), but the leader has yet to face his bye and leads the league in pass attempts by a large margin.

While the run game against the Rams frustrated fans and GM's alike, DVOA loves 3rd down conversions and Joseph Addai delivered there making up for the lack of yardage. Picking up 3 yards a carry isn't very good...  unless you're doing it on 3rd and less than 3 which Addai was in several cases.  Donald Brown's two great runs Sunday raised his DVOA way up there, but the lack of any other runs dropped him into FO's sample sample size bin for the season to date.

At WR Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie rank in the top 21 in total and per play value so far both with catch rates well above average, 68% for Wayne, and 71% for Collie. Pierre's rough day dropped him below replacement level for the season, the talent is all there, but Frenchy needs to iron some kinks out of his game still.

Dallas Clark ranks second in DYAR, and 7th in DVOA with an outstanding 81% catch rate. Like in the case of Peyton the player Clark trails in total value has yet to sit for a bye and leads the league in attempts.

On the OL the Colts rank 4th in power success, but are still below average overall thanks to a large number of carries ending for zero or negative yardage, and explosiveness that is only a touch above league average. Better news in the passing game where the Colts pass protection is ranked at the top of the league.

Looking at the DLs it seems as if we can call any 3rd down with 2 or less to go pretty much converted this Sunday as the Colts rank 2nd to last at stopping power runs and the Niners are dead last stopping less than 10% of runs in power situations. The Colts rank last in stuffing runs for no gain or a loss, but allow the 5th least runs of over 10 yards. Running on the Colts will get you yardage. Probably even effective yardage, but it's not likely to be big chunks of yardage.

The Colts are back in the top half of the league in special teams!  Pat McAffe's kickoffs and punts along with the coverage teams have contributed just under a touchdown's worth of field position. The return games and FGs/XPs give back pretty much all of that value, but the Colts break just about even on special teams, and that's quite an improvement from most years.

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