While I enjoy keeping up with the myriad of Power Rankings out there as much as the next guy, I also realize they're somewhat silly and irrelevant.
What I thought might have more meaning relevance is to make categories of teams. Just off the top of my head, I put the teams into the following 4 tiers:
Elite (6): Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Saints, Vikings
Contenders (9): Giants, Packers, Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Eagles, Cardinals, Chargers
The Fringe (8): Jets, Bears, Texans, Jags, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks, 49ers
The Awful (9): Titans, Panthers, Redskins, Browns, Rams, Raiders, Bucs, Chiefs, Lions
Obviously that doesn't settle all the quibbling - I'm sure you might want to move a team like the Eagles, Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, etc, etc - but I do think this approach is useful, particularly this year, when the spread between teams seems to be growing.
What I then did was to look at the game results thus far this year. Now obviously this is a little bit of a chicken and the egg problem, since a large input to my putting teams into tiers was those very results, but the results were nonetheless striking.
Tier 1 vs Tier 4: 13-0
Tier 1 vs Tier 3: 8-2 (Bears over Steelers, Jets over Patriots)
Tier 2 vs Tier 4: 20-1 (Raiders over Eagles)
Tier 1 vs Tier 2: 11-1 (Bengals over Steelers)
Tier 2 vs Tier 3: 9-2 (49ers over Cardinals, Texans over Bengals)
Tier 3 vs Tier 4: 11-1 (Browns over Bills)
(1 vs 1 = 2 games, 2 vs 2 = 6 games, 3 vs 3 = 9 games, 4 vs 4 = 7 games)
So in 79 games involving teams on different tiers, there have only been 7 upsets!
Full stats after the jump.
Tier 1
Colts
vs 1 0-0; vs 2 1-0 (Arz); vs 3 3-0 (Sea, Mia, Jax); vs 4 2-0 (Stl, Ten)
Patriots
vs 1 0-1 (Den); vs 2 2-0 (Atl, Bal); vs 3 1-1 (Buf / NYJ); vs 4 2-0 (TB, Ten)
Broncos
vs 1 1-0 (NE); vs 2 3-0 (SD, Dal, Cin); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 2-0 (Cle, Oak)
Steelers
vs 1 1-0 (Min); vs 2 1-1 (SD / Cin); vs 3 0-1 (Chi); vs 4 3-0 (Det, Cle, Ten)
Vikings
vs 1 0-1 (Pit); vs 2 2-0 (GB, Bal); vs 3 1-0 (SF); vs 4 3-0 (Det, Stl, Cle)
Saints
vs 1 0-0; vs 2 2-0 (Phi, NYG); vs 3 3-0 (NYJ, Mia, Buf); vs 4 1-0 (Det)
Tier 2
Chargers
vs 1 0-2 (Pit, Den); vs 2 0-1 (Bal); vs 3 1-0 (Mia); vs 4 2-0 (KC, Oak)
Ravens
vs 1 0-2 (Min, NE); vs 2 1-1 (SD / Cin); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 2-0 (Cle, KC)
Bengals
vs 1 1-1 (Pit / Den); vs 2 2-0 (Bal, GB); vs 3 1-1 (Chi / Hou); vs 4 1-0 (Cle)
Eagles
vs 1 0-1 (NO); vs 2 0-0; vs 3 0-0; vs 4 4-1 (Was, TB, KC, Car / Oak)
Giants
vs 1 0-1 (NO); vs 2 1-1 (Dal / Arz); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 4-0 (Oak, KC, TB, Was)
Cowboys
vs 1 0-1 (Den); vs 2 1-1 (Atl / NYG); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 3-0 (KC, Car, TB)
Packers
vs 1 0-1 (Min); vs 2 0-1 (Cin); vs 3 1-0 (Chi); vs 4 3-0 (Cle, Det, Stl)
Cardinals
vs 1 0-1 (Ind); vs 2 1-0 (NYG); vs 3 3-1 (Sea, Jac, Hou / SF); vs 4 0-0
Falcons
vs 1 0-1 (NE); vs 2 0-1 (Dal); vs 3 3-0 (SF, Chi, Mia); vs 4 1-0 (Car)
Tier 3
Jags 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0
Texans 0-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0
Jets 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 2-0
Bills 0-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1
Dolphins 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 0-0
Bears 1-0, 0-3, 1-0, 1-0
Seahawks 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0
49ers 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0
Tier 4
Titans 0-3, 0-0, 0-3, 0-0
Chiefs 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 1-1
Raiders 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0
Browns 0-3, 0-3, 1-0, 0-0
Redskins 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 2-3
Lions 0-3, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0
Rams 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 0-1
Panthers 0-0, 0-3, 0-1, 2-0
Bucs 0-1, 0-3, 0-1, 0-2


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