A different approach to power Rankings

by pjdonald on Oct 29, 2009 11:33 PM EDT Comment 7 comments

While I enjoy keeping up with the myriad of Power Rankings out there as much as the next guy, I also realize they're somewhat silly and irrelevant.

What I thought might have more meaning relevance is to make categories of teams. Just off the top of my head, I put the teams into the following 4 tiers:

Elite (6): Colts, Patriots, Steelers, Broncos, Saints, Vikings

Contenders (9): Giants, Packers, Cowboys, Bengals, Ravens, Falcons, Eagles, Cardinals, Chargers

The Fringe (8): Jets, Bears, Texans, Jags, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks, 49ers

The Awful (9): Titans, Panthers, Redskins, Browns, Rams, Raiders, Bucs, Chiefs, Lions

Obviously that doesn't settle all the quibbling - I'm sure you might want to move a team like the Eagles, Chargers, 49ers, Steelers, etc, etc - but I do think this approach is useful, particularly this year, when the spread between teams seems to be growing.

What I then did was to look at the game results thus far this year. Now obviously this is a little bit of a chicken and the egg problem, since a large input to my putting teams into tiers was those very results, but the results were nonetheless striking.

Tier 1 vs Tier 4: 13-0

Tier 1 vs Tier 3: 8-2 (Bears over Steelers, Jets over Patriots)

Tier 2 vs Tier 4: 20-1 (Raiders over Eagles)

Tier 1 vs Tier 2: 11-1 (Bengals over Steelers)

Tier 2 vs Tier 3: 9-2 (49ers over Cardinals, Texans over Bengals)

Tier 3 vs Tier 4: 11-1 (Browns over Bills)

(1 vs 1 = 2 games, 2 vs 2 = 6 games, 3 vs 3 = 9 games, 4 vs 4 = 7 games)

So in 79 games involving teams on different tiers, there have only been 7 upsets!

Full stats after the jump.

Tier 1

Colts

vs 1 0-0; vs 2 1-0 (Arz); vs 3 3-0 (Sea, Mia, Jax); vs 4 2-0 (Stl, Ten)

Patriots

vs 1 0-1 (Den); vs 2 2-0 (Atl, Bal); vs 3 1-1 (Buf / NYJ); vs 4 2-0 (TB, Ten)

Broncos

vs 1 1-0 (NE); vs 2 3-0 (SD, Dal, Cin); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 2-0 (Cle, Oak)

Steelers

vs 1 1-0 (Min); vs 2 1-1 (SD / Cin); vs 3 0-1 (Chi); vs 4 3-0 (Det, Cle, Ten)

Vikings

vs 1 0-1 (Pit); vs 2 2-0 (GB, Bal); vs 3 1-0 (SF); vs 4 3-0 (Det, Stl, Cle)

Saints

vs 1 0-0; vs 2 2-0 (Phi, NYG); vs 3 3-0 (NYJ, Mia, Buf); vs 4 1-0 (Det)

Tier 2

Chargers

vs 1 0-2 (Pit, Den); vs 2 0-1 (Bal); vs 3 1-0 (Mia); vs 4 2-0 (KC, Oak)

Ravens

vs 1 0-2 (Min, NE); vs 2 1-1 (SD / Cin); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 2-0 (Cle, KC)

Bengals

vs 1 1-1 (Pit / Den); vs 2 2-0 (Bal, GB); vs 3 1-1 (Chi / Hou); vs 4 1-0 (Cle)

Eagles

vs 1 0-1 (NO); vs 2 0-0; vs 3 0-0; vs 4 4-1 (Was, TB, KC, Car / Oak)

Giants

vs 1 0-1 (NO); vs 2 1-1 (Dal / Arz); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 4-0 (Oak, KC, TB, Was)

Cowboys

vs 1 0-1 (Den); vs 2 1-1 (Atl / NYG); vs 3 0-0; vs 4 3-0 (KC, Car, TB)

Packers

vs 1 0-1 (Min); vs 2 0-1 (Cin); vs 3 1-0 (Chi); vs 4 3-0 (Cle, Det, Stl)

Cardinals

vs 1 0-1 (Ind); vs 2 1-0 (NYG); vs 3 3-1 (Sea, Jac, Hou / SF); vs 4 0-0

Falcons

vs 1 0-1 (NE); vs 2 0-1 (Dal); vs 3 3-0 (SF, Chi, Mia); vs 4 1-0 (Car)

Tier 3

Jags 0-1, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0

Texans 0-0, 1-1, 1-2, 2-0

Jets 1-1, 0-0, 1-2, 2-0

Bills 0-2, 0-0, 1-1, 2-1

Dolphins 0-2, 0-2, 2-0, 0-0

Bears 1-0, 0-3, 1-0, 1-0

Seahawks 0-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0

49ers 0-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-0

Tier 4

Titans 0-3, 0-0, 0-3, 0-0

Chiefs 0-0, 0-5, 0-0, 1-1

Raiders 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0

Browns 0-3, 0-3, 1-0, 0-0

Redskins 0-0, 0-2, 0-0, 2-3

Lions 0-3, 0-1, 0-1, 1-0

Rams 0-2, 0-1, 0-3, 0-1

Panthers 0-0, 0-3, 0-1, 2-0

Bucs 0-1, 0-3, 0-1, 0-2

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Stampede Blue's writers or editors.

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Comments

i see what you have done however

the one i must say i cant see is putting chargers and packers ahead of the jets and texans. but thats just me. at the very least watching these games id have to at the least say that the texans would be a contender. i can see why you put the jets in the third teir but knowing how the chargers are so bad on there D line and O line this year and how horrible there run game has been id have to move them down even if you dont put the jets as contenders.

GO COLTS!!! 09 IS OURS!!!

by TheAngelsColts on Oct 29, 2009 11:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting post. Rec’d for creativity and time spent researching.

Hit em with your groin!

by KingRichard on Oct 30, 2009 8:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Very interesting, indeed.

Rec’d

"I throw, you catch. It's NOT that hard!"
Peyton Manning, SNL, 2007

by peytonsthebest on Oct 30, 2009 12:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Nice work.

I like the tiered approach to rankings very much over “power rankings” although they are fun for debate.

I was going to argue some of the teams in your tiers, but the breakdown is very interesting and surprised to see so much division in the teams, but it is about what you would expect from the tiers. The only one I might argue is dropping the Pats to tier 2, but they are 2-0 vs. those teams so I guess its fair.

by deefree93 on Oct 30, 2009 9:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Excellent post. I think this is the smarter way of doing things.

by sandsnake on Oct 30, 2009 11:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'm a big fan.

Colts only have 4 games in the top 2 tiers this year, and both tier 1 games are at home. What an awesome schedule.

@Cardinals T2
Pats T1
@Ravens T2
Broncos T1

by shoein on Oct 30, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Dude!

This is some cool and original stuff – I like it a lot.

Now for two questions: Would this tiering approach also work for a full season, i.e. last season, and are you going to update this post sometime over the next few games – cause I’d be back.

by One.Cool.Customer on Nov 3, 2009 6:56 PM EST reply actions 0 recs